My goal is 15% a year... so what strategy?

Quote from Trader666:

I've backtested this nonsense and IT DOESN'T WORK. NONE of Hershey's stuff that I've tested has worked (been profitable).

Here's how you can check it too if you're into wasting your time. But keep in mind that when you come to the same conclusion, Hershey and his minions will claim you did it wrong or that it can't be backtested or backtesting is useless. I've heard it all from those clowns.

1) Get a list of 80/80 stocks for the time period of your choice from P123. For example, if you want to backtest a period that starts on 1 Jan 02, you can actually get a list of stocks that made the 80/80 cut as of 1 Jan 02.

2) Take the list from step 1 and scan for the stocks that have 20% channels. Spydertrader wrote code for this in a ChartScript on the Wealth-Lab site or you can write your own.

3) Take the list from step 2 and check for the STOCH 5, 2, 3 signals. You'll see that this method doesn't work unless you want to play make-believe.

thanx trader666 great stuff :)
 
Quote from Mike805:

When the market is range bound/flat or dropping, you sell the premiums and keep your position. *It is buy and hold* but it also allows you to make a premium when the market isn't going anywhere.

yes, but when the market is not range bound flat or dropping, then you will cap your winners and still not beat the long term marketavg. which is 7% per year or so?

so basically selling covered calls is predicting when the market will be range bound/flat or dropping, and covering your calls before the market will rise. so still no easy money there, unless your analysis works. but if your analysis can predict when the market will rise, why not just buy stox before market rises and put your money in a mm account in other cases?

so still, i see no difference, why selling covered calls should give you easier your 15% than buy and hold
 
Understand the simple fact that long term trends are tenacious in their nature.

So when the majority of the market try and forecast the long term trend off what happened that week, you'll be able to pick them off if your analysis is any good. ie, when they're all saying 'that's it the trend is now OVER' and dump stock you'll be quietly buying with some confidence.

Be patient as well and don't follow the market on a daily basis.

Good luck and nice to see someone post a realistic goal for once. :D :D
 
Quote from Mike805:

Yes - BUT - you have to admit, it is relatively safe and not very time intensive. It's a buy only stock strategy that requires a simple knowledge of options. Seems like what this guy may be looking for. If he had asked to make +/-150% a year I'd tell him to day trade the ER2 or the QM, or even GOOG or CME for that matter. Selling covered calls is slow and steady, that's why I made the suggestion.

Mike

I'm not sure if you picked up on it... my comment is directed at the simple fact that selling covered calls is nothing but a higher commission, higher slippage, and higher margin requirement way to <b>sell naked puts!</b>

To this day, I still don't get why 'selling covered calls' is even considered a legitimate strategy. I've asked this question many times on ET, and have yet to get a logical answer.
 
Trade4succes -- I've tested tons of Hershey voodoo over the years... following instructions exactly, getting clarifications, etc. Bottom line is NONE of it was profitable and when faced with results, Jack and his disciples always pull the same old crap which is what I wrote before: to claim I did it wrong, or that it can't be backtested or that backtesting doesn't work. And here he goes again! That's the real humor!

This is his game... playing the wise old man who speaks in riddles. Which serves him by shielding his "methods" from backtesting with obfuscation, which also keeps his naive followers on edge for more. Kinda like a pied piper but all he really has to offer is turds.

Jack, you seem senile so let me remind you of what you posted:
Quote from jack hershey:
Try this. I mean do not actually do it, just watch it happen. See how many days you can go before you decide to not watch anymore having made the trade4success laugh.

Get a list of 80/80* stocks. cull it for stocks that have 20% channels.

Set your STOCH to 5, 2, 3. Mark the daily chart when the fast line goes up through the 50% and check the next day or so and see how long it takes to make 3/4% net for such a stock?

This is just a rough and tumble way to be an observer and have some laughs. Quit after you have had enough laughs.

*EPS and RS
So where's all the other crap you said I left out? It certainly wasn't in your post. ROTFLMAO!
Quote from jack hershey:
Here's some more humor for you.
 
That's exactly right but very few people realize it.

Quote from Rearden Metal:

selling covered calls is nothing but a higher commission, higher slippage, and higher margin requirement way to <b>sell naked puts!</b>
 
I have a 'new' and 'exciting' way for the covered call crowd to buy and hold stock!:

Let's say you want to buy 100 shares of MSFT. Instead of going about this purchase in the normal manner, here's a 'better' way to do it:

1) Open two options trading accounts.
2) In account A, buy 20 MSFT calls and sell 20 MSFT puts (Same strike, same month). Thus, you're synthetic long 2000 shares of MSFT.
3) In account B, buy 19 MSFT puts and sell 19 MSFT calls. Thus, in this account you're synthetic short 1900 shares of MSFT.

By getting long 2000 synthetic shares in one account, and short 1900 synthetic shares in the other, you've now built the equivalent of a 100 share long position.

However, you've managed to do it in such a convoluted, indirect way; <b>Your slippage, margin requirements and commissions are all drastically worse</b> than if you had just bought your 100 shares the normal way! It's like driving from Chicago to NY, by taking a pointless detour through Texas.

If the above mentioned method appeals to you- Congratulations! You're now ready to start selling covered calls! :D
 
Quote from Rearden Metal:

I have a 'new' and 'exciting' way for the covered call crowd to buy and hold stock!:

Let's say you want to buy 100 shares of MSFT. Instead of going about this purchase in the normal manner, here's a 'better' way to do it:

1) Open two options trading accounts.
2) In account A, buy 20 MSFT calls, and sell 20 MSFT puts (Same strike, same month). Thus, you're synthetic long 2000 shares of MSFT.
3) In account B, buy 19 MSFT puts, and sell 19 MSFT calls. Thus, in this account you're synthetic short 1900 shares of MSFT.

By getting long 2000 synthetic shares in one account, and short 1900 synthetic shares in the other, you've now built the equivalent of a 100 share long position.

However, you've managed to do it in such a convoluted, indirect way; <b>Your slippage, margin requirements and commissions are all drastically worse</b> than if you had just bought 100 shares the normal way! It's like driving from Chicago to NY, by taking a pointless detour through Texas.

If the above mentioned method appeals to you- Congratulations! You're now ready to start selling covered calls! :D

I suppose selling covered calls would only make sense if you already own the stock... Otherwise you'd be way better off selling naked puts instead... That way you're using way less capital also...

- mnx
 
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