My first post; some observations on trading.

Quote from Dustin:

You're right...during the sample period I only made $248k and I've only been doing this for 11 years full time. You fail to realize the power of the stats.


Obviously no skill, whatsoever.:D
 
Quote from Dustin:

I've only been doing this for 11 years full time.

Oops make that 10+ years.

Was just thinking...abc if it wasn't skill that produced my profits over the years then what do you think it was? Maybe you can clarify.
 
Quote from Dustin:

if it wasn't skill that produced my profits over the years then what do you think it was?
Ten years of consistent luck. :D

Also, who needs an "edge" when all you need is somebody dumber than you to take the other side? :D :D :D
 
Quote from Dustin:

It's 1.6X times the losers, not a percentage.

"The sort of success that would even hint at skill is much higher than your results."

You're right...during the sample period I only made $248k and I've only been doing this for 11 years full time. You fail to realize the power of the stats.

Anyway if you have any specific questions I'll answer them, but I'm going to stop trying to change your mind about this.

I understood it as 1.6 x (ignore my %) So for every $100 you lose; you make $160.

On a 56% win/loss ratio you would have to trade a lot to make the type of money you are referring to or in very large size or a combination of both.

Either way I don't see that much skill in your results.

For example; I could theoretically place 1 trade with large size and make more than that. This would give me a win/loss ratio of 100%. I could chose the direction of the trade by flipping a coin; I wouldn't (don't worry) but I could.

So while your results might be good for your bank balance can you conclusively prove to me that skill is involved ?

The moment you place any trade there are a mountain of market forces determining the direction of that stock/index/currency pair etc that it is out of your hands.

Yes you can use information to make the trade which you believe should give you a reasonable expectation of profit but once the trade is on there are no guarantees on the direction and hence no skill involved in the outcome; at the very least it is difficult to prove.

abc1
 
LMAO ...


abc, you are either an idiot or just playing at being one for fun. theoretically .... my arse.


Dustin, imho, you are exhibiting a great deal of skill. The only lack of skill you display is in not dumping this cretin. Although I, and no doubt others, gained from the information you posted.

. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1601381"> .
 

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Quote from abc1:



So while your results might be good for your bank balance can you conclusively prove to me that skill is involved ?

Yes there is skill in finding a 56% edge in direction, and there is skill in trade management that creates the 1.6X winners.
 
Quote from kiwi_trader:

Although I, and no doubt others, gained from the information you posted.

Thanks, obviously I don't care if this one guy gets it or not. There are always new traders on ET that could believe his misunderstandings so it's worth proving his theories wrong.
 
Just a comment. Over half our traders have been with us since 2000 or before, and many of the originals from the early nineties are still making money as well.

Over the decades, I have noticed that good traders will continue to be good traders regardless of market conditions. We all have to "adapt or die" - just as in any dynamic business.

Trading is just a business, and everyone approached business ventures differently, but in the long run, a good business person will perform better than those who do not possess the skills.

Trying to "prove" a skill in something like trading is tough. Reminds me of our favorite movie "Trading Places" with Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroyd. Was it Genetics or Environment that creates good traders. And, to date, I have no clue...probably a bit of both, just like with most people.

FWIW,

Don
 
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