My first post; some observations on trading.

[empee]

Quote from jwecme:

Even if there is no certainty of a profitable outcome, it does not automatically follow that the primary driver of that outcome is chance.

The greater the number of successful transactions viewed the lower chance is that it is “just down to luck”. If you take people like Jim Rogers or Warren buffet from the investing world you can be much more confident that their results are due to skill rather than luck as they have so many different decisions to make over a huge amount of time. It becomes harder and harder to sustain the argument that the primary driver of their success is luck.

Try picking up the book by Taleb "fooled by randomness it is an excellent read and he makes some great points on the role of chance in trading and investing. Successful high frequency over a long time span is actually the least likely to be based on luck as its primary driver.

Actually, in my interpretation of Taleb's book is that high frequency success can be countered be rare (black swan) loss that exceeds all cumulative wins. In other words, the long term expectancy of seemingly "high win" systems is negative or zero.

In addition, he gives particular credence to survivorship bias in decision making, whereas you might just be looking at lucky outliers when assessing your results: (ie are you a skilled investor or lucky idiot?)

 

[andread]

Quote from abc1:

Exactly, this is the point I am trying to make.

At most one can assume/make/ even hope (!) for a certain outcome with reasonable expectation but cannot guarantee it.

Therefore with results outside of one's control how can any one trader claim skill.

well, nobody can guarantee your job, so if you work is it just chance or because you are good? Maybe you should stop working?
100% in life doesn't exist. Moving the odds at your advantage is still skill, if you do that consistently

 

[stock777]

Quote from luckyluciano:

you are naive....95% of people fail at everything! That's why sucess is "sucess"...if everone was doing it wouldn't be success!

Depends on your definition of failure.

Considering how stupid most people are, they are wildly successful.

 

[cashmoney69]

Quote from rols:

"Here's what I believe:

2. The markets are not random, because they are based on human behavior, and human behavior,
especially mass behavior, is not random. It never has been, and it probably never will be.

IF the markets are NOT random:

1. Why's it so hard to catch a top/bottom?

2. Why do so many people fail as traders?

Markets have to be random because everyone has their OWN reason why xyz stock will go up and buys/ sells according to their belief.

 

[nutmeg]

Only one reason people buy: belief the stock will go up.

You will never know why people sell.

 

[DHOHHI]

Quote from cashmoney69:

IF the markets are NOT random:

1. Why's it so hard to catch a top/bottom?

2. Why do so many people fail as traders?

Markets have to be random because everyone has their OWN reason why xyz stock will go up and buys/ sells according to their belief.

1. One need not find the top or bottom to make $$$.


2. They expect6 trading to be an ATM machine -- lack discipline, lack money management skills, lack true trading skills.

Markets are not random -- that belief is a recipe for failure.

 

[sjd231]

this is my first post on ET... I have been lurking a little while as I have several friends, including my mentor who run active threads... I am a professional trader, not retail, and i believe that this post along with many others on this site are ridiculous. I'm not going to try to convince you of anything, however, I make money consistently each month, more in the last several years than I've made in my whole life. My colleagues are very successful traders, some have been trading on and off the floor for over 25 years, you're "observations" are actually "opinions" and opinions are like assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.

 

[vectors101]

only thing different between professional and retail is leverage and commissions.

your in the same game just different style of making a profit. retail players are the most risky they go for penny stocks making 300% returns in weeks and play double or nothing options.

retail players have jobs outside the market and can afford to lose there capital.

Quote from sjd231:

this is my first post on ET... I have been lurking a little while as I have several friends, including my mentor who run active threads... I am a professional trader, not retail, and i believe that this post along with many others on this site are ridiculous. I'm not going to try to convince you of anything, however, I make money consistently each month, more in the last several years than I've made in my whole life. My colleagues are very successful traders, some have been trading on and off the floor for over 25 years, you're "observations" are actually "opinions" and opinions are like assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.

 

[vectors101]

retailers don't care about trading spreads and greeks etc..blackbox systems cause they don't need to or risk management stuff

Quote from sjd231:

this is my first post on ET... I have been lurking a little while as I have several friends, including my mentor who run active threads... I am a professional trader, not retail, and i believe that this post along with many others on this site are ridiculous. I'm not going to try to convince you of anything, however, I make money consistently each month, more in the last several years than I've made in my whole life. My colleagues are very successful traders, some have been trading on and off the floor for over 25 years, you're "observations" are actually "opinions" and opinions are like assholes, everyone has one and they all stink.

 

[arealpissedgoy]

Quote from abc1:



" more importantly is my ultimate belief that there is no skill or secret to trading; that trading is pure chance."

Another piker bites the dust.

very few succeed, in Anything, because against all odds, they belive they can.

Most, like you, fail because of faulty societal norms which corrupt their thought process.