My first post; some observations on trading.

Quote from abc1:

The realities of trading are somewhat different. Very few make money - at least consistently.

True. But the advertising & marketing by book & ebooksellers, vendors, advisors, brokers, etc. make it seem as easy as putting coins in a vending machine.

More importantly is my ultimate belief that there is no skill or secret to trading; that trading is pure chance.

False

The belief in 'an edge' is another of my pet favourites. True there are edges in trading but it is limited to a very small percentage of people.

True

They include brokers, exchanges and those with insider knowledge, i.e., those who make money on every trade and those who really are trading ahead of the curve.

Mostly true

What a lot of people really don't understand or want to believe is that it is the future that determines what happens and very little in the past can tell you what that will be.

Somewhat. The next couple of days are semi predictable if you have a clue about trends, fundamentals, reading price action, and a few other things.

A stock chart might show a high or a trend but it won't tell you the company is going bankrupt tomorrow, that the company's latest profit generating product has a flaw and is about to be recalled from retail, that several brokers are about to upgrade the stock (bad news for those that are shorting) etc.

The current price factors in current value, expectations, and several other things

While this might seem painfully obvious, very few realise the significance of it. Anyone can use plenty of information to make a trade but nobody can guarantee profit or a loss. Fate, chance or simply tomorrow's news will decide that.

Relatively true

ABC1
More...
 
Hello...

There is an old French proverb...

You can go a long way after you are tired.

And, I like another one.... Luck is the residue of hard work....

So, please donot give up....

You can trade a stock or a market and do well at it.

I have been trading AAPL and RIMM for about a year. For these stocks, the price volume chart for last year is a dead give away.

You can be a buy hold or be a trader...

I sold rimm Friday again. It ws getting too high...Why new highs. Find out today, that rumors of RIMM being taken over by MSFT....

That will not happen... Why a gut feel.


DJI will have tough time crossing 14000. Why...You can see the charts and sya, hey, this is a pretty good resistance...

So, is this conclusion 100%. Of course no, but, it is tradable...

Please comment....

TRading is not rocket science. But, using good common sense...
 
Quote from abc1:


While this might seem painfully obvious, very few realise the significance of it. Anyone can use plenty of information to make a trade but nobody can guarantee profit or a loss. Fate, chance or simply tomorrow's news will decide that.

ABC1
More...
nobody can guarantee anything. The point is not the guarantee, but a reasonable expectation
 
"Here's what I believe:
1. The markets are not random. I don't care if the number of academicians who have argued the efficient market hypothesis would stretch to the moon and back if laid end to end; they are simply wrong.
2. The markets are not random, because they are based on human behavior, and human behavior,
especially mass behavior, is not random. It never has been, and it probably never will be.
3. There is no holy grail or grand secret to the markets, but there are many patterns that can lead to
profits.
4. There are a million ways to make money in markets. The irony is that they are all very difficult to find.
5. The markets are always changing, and they are always the same.
6. The secret to success in the markets lies not in discovering some incredible indicator or elaborate
theory; rather, it lies within each individual.
7. To excel in trading requires a combination of talent and extremely hard work-(surprise!) the same
combination required for excellence in any field. Those seeking success by buying the latest $300 or even
$3,000 system, or by following the latest hot tip, will never find the answer because they haven't yet
understood the question.
8. Success in trading is a worthy goal, but it will be worthless if it is not accompanied by success in your
life (and I use the word success here without monetary connotation).

In conducting the interviews for this book and its predecessor. Market Wizards, I became absolutely
convinced that winning in the markets is a matter of skill and discipline, not luck. The magnitude and consistency of the winning track records compiled by many of those I interviewed simply defy chance.

Those seeking quick fortunes should be discouraged at the onset."

Preface to The New Market Wizards - Jack Schwager
 
The title of this thread should be "My first post;some obervations on lurking"

You dont have enough trading experience if you've only been doing it for a year.
 
Quote from abc1:

Short time ? Definitely not. Or are you referring to the forum ?



Where did I say I have surrounded myself with losers ? You misunderstand.

I'm posting my observations on trading based on real life experience. It was supposed to generate some healthy debate about chance in trading. It was never meant to be a personal attack on anyone.

As for P/L, I have never said it is impossible to be profitable although the odds are against you on every trade because of comission alone.

However suggesting a correlation between P/L and trading skill is another thing altogether.

My belief is that it is chance as nobody, insider traders apart, knows what will happen to the stock, index, futures or whatever price next.

ABC1
More...

I don't know how long you have been trading, but from what you have stated it seems that you don't know anyone making a living trading. For that reason I assume you are new to the biz and have surrounded youself with "losers" (people who can't make a living).

If you are just talking about chance in trading then of course most of trading is chance. You can be right only half of the time and still make good money.
 
Quote from Manni:

The title of this thread should be "My first post;some obervations on lurking"

You dont have enough trading experience if you've only been doing it for a year.
More...

But my observations have little to do with lurking. True some of my observations from real life are echoed by some of the posters here but that is a moot point.

I have been trading on and off for over 10 years. I only registered with this site over a year ago but my experience extends that by a long way.

abc1
 
Quote from Dustin:

I don't know how long you have been trading, but from what you have stated it seems that you don't know anyone making a living trading. For that reason I assume you are new to the biz and have surrounded youself with "losers" (people who can't make a living).

If you are just talking about chance in trading then of course most of trading is chance. You can be right only half of the time and still make good money.
More...

I have seen people make a lot of money; some in the matter of seconds. However these are definitely in the minority.

I agree fully with your second paragraph.

My main point is that chance dominates over skill. Yes of course one can make lots of money,there is lots of information out there to help make a decision to enter and exit a trade, risk management processes, psychology etc. However, I dispute whether a financially successful trade has much to do with skill as a lot of people believe. There's simply too much going on out of one person's control for it to be otherwise.

It's no different really to betting on a basketball game, horse race etc. You can read the form guide, make judgements about the conditions but nobody can tell you what will happen next and therefore skill is not involved.

I appreciate my point could simply be a semantics argument but I believe it is important to make the distinction between skill and chance.

abc1
 
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