My Fail. Trying to move forward.

[Growly]

I'm not familiar with afterhours trading ex USA exchanges, but I'm wondering whether this OTT plunge is a bluff?
I read yesterday that FB afterhours price had plunged, yet today it is up yuge.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...-on-revenue-active-users-20180726-p4ztne.html

Up huge? in opened so far below the ticker was in Chinese characters!

 

[Growly]

My bad, was looking on barchart site at FB and it never showed the after hours plunge. Can see it now though.
And can also see Mohawk
Oh my gawd...
Note: I trade ASX, not USA stocks, don't have your live data.

Are you from the land down under mate?

 

[Growly]

I told you I didn't like the fundamentals for the last 4 qtrs and it might go down to $175 based on reading the tea leaves and Ouija board.

Send me those tea leaves and ouija board!

 

[Growly]

Whatever

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buy_and_hold

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/buyandhold.asp

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-buy-and-hold-2466543

Maybe you meant to combine Buy & Hold investment strategy with a Trend Following strategy ???

I say the above because many investors say Trend Following strategy beats a Buy & Hold investment strategy.

In fact, several websites compares the two as independent and against each other.

https://blog.investbcm.com/trend-following-an-alternative-to-buy-and-hold

https://seekingalpha.com/article/90...ng-trading-models-have-dominated-buy-and-hold

Also, I specifically remember a debate in college between my girlfriend (finance student) and a buddy of mine (economics student) many many years ago (late 1980s)...one advocating Trend Following while the other advocating Buy & Hold.

Thus, I strongly believe Trend following is independent of Buy & Hold. Yet, I believe both can be combined. Many articles at institutional websites, finance schools supports that the two are very different.

wrbtrader

Marvelous. the seeking alpha link is for "pro" only, fyi. the BCM site was inspiring. it does seem so simple to trend trade. that got me thinking, of how and if i can make adjustments for shorter time frames.

 

[dozu888]

I've seen the top of 2007 as i started my career in the capital markets. I've witnessed the meltdown that followed and the years that came after.buy and hold strategy is misleading at times. given the market current highs, a buy and hold may generate in the future an annual return which may be less than satisfatory. give me another market meltdown and i'll happily put a hefty portion of my savings into an index and hold it till pension comes. I can't enter such a position at these market highs and sleep good at night seeing how valuations are stretched and the next recession is likely closer than than most pl think, unless we're gonna see an epic bubble to postpone it. Having said that, even trying to time entries and exits into/out of indices seems prudent rather than buying ludicrous pricings...

this view is too popular among retail.. the reason why retail is still not participating in the bull run.. better buy now before they wake up who knows when.

how many actually bot in the 2008 meltdown? heck, how many got scared out in the past Feb? buying melt down is easier said than done. in 2008 we were hours from seizing up... not buying was totally rational.

on the way to the moon, how many all time highs will be taken out? there is no such thing as 'high', there is only 'higher'.

valuation - why is everybody so quiet about the 'Fed model' now? according to which SP fair value should be at 6000.... nobody knows the real final effect of such low interest rates.

I rely heavily on sentiment, especially retail sentiment, the perfect contrarian indicator.... it was extremely bearish in 2016 and 2017, now it's strongly bearish.

long way to go guys.

 

[ironchef]

Send me those tea leaves and ouija board!

Ouija Board:

Reading the tea leaves:

 

[themickey]

Are you from the land down under mate?

Sure am cobba

 

[Growly]

Ouija Board:
View attachment 189150

Reading the tea leaves:
View attachment 189151

that all makes sense now.

 

[Growly]

this view is too popular among retail.. the reason why retail is still not participating in the bull run.. better buy now before they wake up who knows when.

how many actually bot in the 2008 meltdown? heck, how many got scared out in the past Feb? buying melt down is easier said than done. in 2008 we were hours from seizing up... not buying was totally rational.

on the way to the moon, how many all time highs will be taken out? there is no such thing as 'high', there is only 'higher'.

valuation - why is everybody so quiet about the 'Fed model' now? according to which SP fair value should be at 6000.... nobody knows the real final effect of such low interest rates.

I rely heavily on sentiment, especially retail sentiment, the perfect contrarian indicator.... it was extremely bearish in 2016 and 2017, now it's strongly bearish.

long way to go guys.

I'm with you on the retail sentiment. not that i consider myself knowledgeable about what exactly you mean (please elaborate!) but when i managed retail clients, i remember that when they were all terrified, it was a good time to buy, and when they got greedy... the other way around.
And regarding the meltdown, i totally agree. I still remember the the days that we now know were the bottom (march 9th, 09) seeing the xlf @ 6$~ and thinking to myself that even if 50% of the underlyings were to go bust, the nav should be way higher than 6$. yet, buying it only to see it going to 3$ in a matter of weeks (which was the prevalent sentiment) WAS petrifying. i try to remember those feelings today, so as not to let them cloud my judgement in the future. these days however, i'm really not sure where we stand..

 

[dozu888]

I'm with you on the retail sentiment. not that i consider myself knowledgeable about what exactly you mean (please elaborate!) but when i managed retail clients, i remember that when they were all terrified, it was a good time to buy, and when they got greedy... the other way around.
And regarding the meltdown, i totally agree. I still remember the the days that we now know were the bottom (march 9th, 09) seeing the xlf @ 6$~ and thinking to myself that even if 50% of the underlyings were to go bust, the nav should be way higher than 6$. yet, buying it only to see it going to 3$ in a matter of weeks (which was the prevalent sentiment) WAS petrifying. i try to remember those feelings today, so as not to let them cloud my judgement in the future. these days however, i'm really not sure where we stand..

I meant this

https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment

been using this for several years... sp500 was 1:9 long/short in 2016 and most of 2017, until in Jan 2018 it got to 5:5..... now somewhere around 3:7

couple this with AAII bull/bear, valuation itself - 3% 10-year vs. 6% forward sp earning yield (fair value should be on par between the 2!), then there is the checking account balance at all time high, corporate cash, stock buy back, dollar repatriation, biz sentiment at all time highs.

people count their fingers to 10, 10 years of bull and it's suppose to die? no logic here... why not count the toes also.

by the way also look at the gold and bitcoin ratios, 9:1 and 8:2 ... isn't this how retail thinks? are your retail clients not afraid of a stock crash right now? retail is piling into these 'safe assets' waiting for a crash.

perfect contrarian indicators here.