My Fail. Trying to move forward.

dozu888 said:
pulling your legs a little... I use price action... just saying the OP's kind of indicator stuff is useless.
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Once he figures out that indicators are mostly a manipulation of price action to make it visually pleasing he'll be alright.

I personally know a couple traders that use Stochastics crosses to earn a comfortable living. Nothing works all the time and money management and risk control have a lot to do with their success.
 
formikatrading said:
Maybe I'm missing something, but I can't see how going long that stock was a low-risk, high probability strategy any way you look at this. Again, you have to look at the bigger picture. What he thought was a breakout was a rally of a laggard into resistance -- go across the chart and look at where that rally stopped (in addition to the declining 100-period MA). I'm not trying to be critical, but just stating that this doesn't appear to be "just a case of a trade not working out." Hope that helps.

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can't argue with that, but my thoughts were to catch a begining of a new trade... when i extrapolate your way of thinking, i find myself with only "blue sky breakouts"... i'm not saying that to retaliate, but just to explain how my way of thinking may be blocking my progress...
 
dozu888 said:
you are not going anywhere with this TA garbage.

someone suggested quantifying this - ain't gonna work either, you will quantify and find something, only to fail in real trading.

just buy the damn QQQ and hold... you will actually learn a lot from holding. checking my 'trading is easy' thread, what to learn and how to learn thru even a simple holding process not to be shaken off the tree.

understand who the players are, and how they play - that's the logic of the market.

not this blue line red line bs.
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i'm guessing it's an unpopular opinion, yet it is deep. i've been managing portfolios and preached the same idea to my clients. (well, buy and hold) it IS a high % chance of win, no doubt, for longer terms. but, i feel there must be a way to "outsmart" this. working in caital markets (in Israel, if that matters) i know that proprietary traders must generate positive returns in shorter term (for their cut, and to keep their jobs) and they do succeed.
 
wrbtrader said:
Your strategy involves waiting for a bullish divergence between price and the MACD...

That occurred early June.

Next, you wait for a breakout on high volume (OBV was highest) and then you enter your trades on a price pullback.

1) What's the purpose of the other indicators on your chart...specifically what do you use the 50ma and the RSI for ???

2) Why would you be a "tad confused" (your words) as to which setups work. Didn't you backtest the bullish divergence for the MACD, OBV volume breakouts and your entry into a pullback (retracement) as a 3 part trade signal strategy ???

3) If you did backtest your 3 part trade signal strategy...did the trade loss fit into the threshold for the losses revealed in your backtest results ???

Yet, if you did no backtest...there's the problem because you're now confused about the trade loss when you should just move on...preparing for your next trade. Backtesting is critically important to put your money management and discipline to work because you'll know what's going on with that 3 part trade signal setup you're using.

wrbtrader
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well, the RSI and MA's were just there, i didn't take them into account for that trade, they're part of my default setup....
And regarding backtesting - i only heard about this concept in this thread :S newb, as i said.
 
deaddog said:
Once he figures out that indicators are mostly a manipulation of price action to make it visually pleasing he'll be alright.

I personally know a couple traders that use Stochastics crosses to earn a comfortable living. Nothing works all the time and money management and risk control have a lot to do with their success.
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Indicators are not a "manipulation" but simply a derivative of price. Some find them useful to get an "at a glance" view into price action. If you find them useful, use them, if not don't. I use a double stochastic on my charts but I seriously doubt that anyone earns a "comfortable living" with sto crosses.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
What did the two time frames above this one show you about market direction?
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they showed a down trend. thought the pattern suggested bottom, because of the macd peaking up, after the recent disappointing earnings were priced in....
 
I greatly appreciate all input here, fellas, that's mind stimulating. Also, Dozu's and deaddog's discussion is illuminating. :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
 
Growly said:
i'm guessing it's an unpopular opinion, yet it is deep. i've been managing portfolios and preached the same idea to my clients. (well, buy and hold) it IS a high % chance of win, no doubt, for longer terms. but, i feel there must be a way to "outsmart" this. working in caital markets (in Israel, if that matters) i know that proprietary traders must generate positive returns in shorter term (for their cut, and to keep their jobs) and they do succeed.
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that's like 80% of the drivers think they are better than average.

you can look up the stats... over the long term, NOBODY beats the sp500, let alone the more robust QQQ, let alone if you had the foresight to hold only FAAMG.

just not doable... the possibility of finding any edge in the zero sum game in the long run, is far far smaller than the QQQ components that throw in massive R&D dollars and gain productivity break thrus.
 
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