My Fail. Trying to move forward.

tomorton said:
You're technically correct about holding the US stock indices. But the reality is most people in short-term trading have only modest or even extremely little capital, and short-term trading is a way (they think) to maximise its potential. So long-term buy-and-hold isn't a viable way for them to become financially independent.

You are wrong saying that TA is garbage. Actually, TA is very helpful, it is the traders who are garbage.
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A trader that wants to short-term trade is usually doing it to try to achieve income in the near future or grow their capital in the near future.

In contrast, buy & hold strategy is usually an investment or for those that do not need access to that income in the near future.

I always have viewed buy & hold as a way to diversify and for long term investments.

A smart short term trader will also be diversified (using buy & hold as an investment vehicle)...as in not putting all their eggs into one basket. Not good if you put everything into one thing only (trading or investing) and then that one thing goes wrong. In fact, I'm starting to think that if someone can not afford to invest for the future...they should not be trading.

Last of all, even folks doing buy & hold are looking at charts too and what they see is in fact impacting their buy & hold decisions. Simply, the flaw is that most view short term trading as only using indicators or only using charts.

In reality, there's a lot of short trading (algorithms) that uses no charts.

P.S. Its funny because the foundation of many investment decisions for buy & hold for corporations or institutions...they take some of that money and short term trade with it.

wrbtrader
 
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dozu888 said:
TA - have not met one rich technician.
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How many Technician have you met?

I"m not super rich but over the years I have accumulated enough capital using TA that I live a fairly comfortable lifestyle.

For the most part I don't know what the companies I trade do. I rely strictly on the chart to tell what to buy, when to buy and when to sell.

Fundamentals are metrics invented by sellers to influence buyers.
 
deaddog said:
How many Technician have you met?

I"m not super rich but over the years I have accumulated enough capital using TA that I live a fairly comfortable lifestyle.

For the most part I don't know what the companies I trade do. I rely strictly on the chart to tell what to buy, when to buy and when to sell.

Fundamentals are metrics invented by sellers to influence buyers.
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comfortable is not rich
 
deaddog said:
You'll have to define rich.

Do didn't say how many technicians you have met or how many rich traders you know.
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pulling your legs a little... I use price action... just saying the OP's kind of indicator stuff is useless.
 
SteveH said:
If you do this, then THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF OPPOSING BAR CLOSES IN THE TREND will offer you up excellent real-time reward to risk ratios at a winning pct level of 50/50 at worst.


Go to any chart with good volatility. Measure the MAE's and MFE's from EVERY red bar close in uptrends to the very top of where the trend actually ended and vice verse with downtrends from the green bar closes to the very bottom of where the trends end. ["trend" means price is obviously one-sided to a 20 ema]
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Thanks! please clarify: MAE, MFE ?
Also, i'm not sure i got you 100% on "then THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF OPPOSING BAR CLOSES IN THE TREND will offer you up excellent real-time reward to risk ratios at a winning pct level of 50/50 at worst."....
 
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lindq said:
So equip yourself with a good backtesting package, work it to death for thousands of hours, find something that may work with your personality and goals, forward test it, then go to work.


Best of luck.
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any recommendations for (preferably free) package?
 
ironchef said:
Excellent points Mr. lindq.

TA indicators only worked for me in backtesting. I was so excited when I tried back test with MACD, RSI, MA, Bollinger Bands... thinking I found my gold mine, printing press, as looking backward they made so much sense and worked all the time. Then the rude awakening going forward....

I think curve fitting historical data always works - I can always find some formula that fit the data perfectly - going as far back as I like. So, now I stay away from TA and just stare at the charts all day long.:banghead:
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and look for what? i'd be happy to get at least a 101 course on what to look for :)
 
themickey said:
My suggestion, if you have conviction in a stock, done your homework, do the following;
When you buy into a position buy with the thought at the back of your mind price may reverse.
If stop gets hit, so be it, but if it reverses again, chase it if all the bullish signals are still there.
My opinion on looking at price action of MHK, going long was the correct decision.
Just because it smacked you once shouldn't mean you give up on it.
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today after close, earnings will be out, then i'll have a better idea if i was right :)
 
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