I hope all of you are well. It has been awhile since I have posted to my thread, so I thought I would provide an update of what has happened since I started my incubator hedge fund.
My fund became active mid-August of 2010. I do not want to get into the details of my trading methodology because that is not what the thread is about. However, it is important to understand that for the most part, I trade options on a variety of equity indices based on entry signals generated by statistical models I have developed over the last several years. The focus of the trading is therefore on volatility and as many of you aware, things have been relatively calm and peaceful so volatility has been extremely low. In other words, I have had limited entries.
Since I was sitting in cash in such a low volatility market, I wanted to position the fund to take advantage of a mean regression in volatility I know will eventually occur by buying options. I also took the opportunity to experiment with various types of spreads and did some gamma hedging. There have been a few other techniques thrown in for good measure. I risked small amounts. Some ended up doing ok, but volatility continued its descent, resulting in losing positions.
Historically, I am an option seller. I like selling options because I like having time as an ally, so being an option buyer is a bit of an adjustment. However, I wish to maintain exposure to positive black swan events and so a buyer I must be (is that even proper English?).
Anyway, I finished the year down about 6.5%. Not the start I had hoped for! Historically, I always lose money in the beginning as I tend to enter falling markets. However, I have always out-performed the major indices by a minimum of 10%. This was a blow to my ego and also a reflection of my ability to manage money. I am pleased to note that 88% of those losses came from the experimental techniques I was trying rather than my primary trading methodology.
As an adjustment, I am greatly reducing the entry sizes for experimental trades. I have also substantially increased the time I spend in study. I have read some books lately that are outstanding, and I would highly recommend them. They are:
The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb,
The Volatility Edge in options Trading by Jeff Augen,
The Flaw of Averages by Sam Savage,
Trading Options in Turbulent Markets by Larry Shover
The first two blew me away!
I also had a setback when one of my investors ran into unexpected financial hardship and needed his money back, which I promptly did. Fortunately, his capital represented only a small amount of AUM and the majority of the fund was still in cash, so it wasn't a problem. I keep him posted on my progress and maybe some day he will choose to get involved again.
I also had the chance to meet with the investor that accounts for the bulk of my fund's AUM so that I could give him the bad news about my performance thus far. It was hard to do, but I wanted to keep him posted. He really didn't seem to care, as to him it is a negligible amount. Either way, I plan on keeping my investors well informed (not over trivial stuff) regardless of the type of news. Currently, I send out a quarterly report and everybody seems to be happy with that.
Other than that, it is business as usual. I am even more determined to make this a success than when I first started and I have been steadily bringing the account back to its starting point. Even though it is time consuming, I love doing it.
I thank all of you again for your positive ecouragements and constructive criticism.