Quote from SDticks:
I have no idea when you started trading. All I meant was that you probably got into the numbers game at the end of it. Why do I think that?
1. I'm guessing you worked for Refco Trading Services (Macfutures) when it opened up in the US - this was at the end of the numbers game
2. You mentioned the bonds having 2-4 handle moves on NFP. This was towards the end of that game.
Please feel free to correct any of my assumptions if I am wrong.
Really I meant no disrespect to you. It's just that strategy your bashing, hitting number releases off of bloomberg, worked for a really long time and made people a lot of money. It used to work for almost all of the significant numbers. No, you were never ahead of everyone, but you were in early enough for people to come in behind you and drive the price up or down significantly from your entry. Some firms had better set-ups for this trade than others.
If they could trade on top of it, it just added more to their pocket book. If they couldn't, it bought them time and money until they could figure it out. Whether they pissed it away or went the wrong way has nothing to do with the validity of the strategy. I know people whose entire trading career was based off of this trade. Is that a good move? Of course not. Did they make a lot of money? Yes. Was it still a valid edge while it was happening? Yes.