My Euro Trade For The Next Year

G

GetBusyLiving

In my opinion, I do not see the EURO breaking the recent high of 1.49 in the next couple of years. Even if there is a QE3 and the FED keeps interest rates low for some time to come, I think most investors realize the EURO is a failed project.

Greece WILL default. It's debt is unsustainable. Whether it happens soon (Parliament rejects the austerity measures), or a year or 2 from now (they run out of money again), it is only a matter of time.

When it defaults it will cause a cascade of events that will bring doom for the euro, much like the Italy crisis in 2000 that brought the euro close to .81USD.

So my trade is:

Step 1: Define your maximum risk from 1.4630 (Current level) to the recent high (1.49something), which is about 300 pips. For me this is 500,000 shares for a maximum risk of $15,000 (risk can vary depending on how you average in).

Step 2: Go in with 1/3 of your shares (166666 for me) And, if it continues to go to 1.49, average in with the rest of your shares.

Step 3: If we are on the right side of the trade, and the Euro begins to fall, keep on adding on slight pullbacks.

Depending on how far you ride this down (if it goes down), you can make a fortune for a risk you have pre-defined.
 
This is cool, can't wait to recommend this trade of the year to olifxpro, ddav, darktrader. They are struggling and we sure hope they will benefit from your excellent call. $15K risk is nothing compared to the windfall expected.
 
If most investors think like us, that EURO cannot go above 1.49, then who do you think is on the other side of our short? Who's buying and why?
 
Another 'surprise' CPI flash estimate and EUR will print 1.50 , re: january. Dixie isn't going to help, did you see those job numbers.


"I think most investors realize the EURO is a failed project."

I think everyone thought that around new years, and then CPI came out and trichet opened his big mouth. Look what happened. And eur was at 1.29.
 
Quote from frank01st:

If most investors think like us, that EURO cannot go above 1.49, then who do you think is on the other side of our short? Who's buying and why?
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People who are trying to reap the rewards of a simple carry trade. They think everything is stable right now. But if Greece does default, which is unlikely anytime soon, then others are next, and you can kiss the Euro to at least 1.18.
 
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