my divine commedia to optionality

[.sigma]

$ROKU (@BlueWaterSailor ) - I made good money back in SEP buying long call verticals around the $100 strike. This stock moves so much it's scary but fuck it, 60% run up in a month or so I'm thinking she needs a rest.

Sold -2 DEC30d 190 C
Bot +1 DEC30d 177.5 C

@ $0.74 risk

Call ratio looking for some sell-off/correction to $145 which is a high vol by price spot. If this happens I'll buy the 200 strike call for less than 0.74c to remove risk and create a free butterfly.

 

[.sigma]

Some dude on Twitter is telling me he knows of a trader who successfully trades vix.

He said the guy has a 80% win rate
Only trades a few times per year
70% "flat"
25% avg return per annum
Sharpe ratio of 1.8

Sounds very fake to me but who knows and who cares? I just thought I'd post it here in case any of you guys know successful vix traders, or are a successful vix trader lol

 

[.sigma]

#vola

 

[.sigma]

This week I'm homing in on

$VG
$RAIL
$BTU
$ENLC

Finally some buying activity in these duds.

$RAIL looks like its going to blow

 

[.sigma]

"Physicists in general, and Farmer and Packard especially, have developed many kinds of optimization algorithms that, by different means, accomplish the same goals as genetic algos, with different algos carefully tailored to different tasks. These algos are pattern sleuths: they comb through data, testing millions of models at a time, searching for predictive signals." #JamesOwenWeatherall #PhysicsOfWallSt

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

$ROKU (@BlueWaterSailor ) - I made good money back in SEP buying long call verticals around the $100 strike. This stock moves so much it's scary but fuck it, 60% run up in a month or so I'm thinking she needs a rest.

Sold -2 DEC30d 190 C
Bot +1 DEC30d 177.5 C

@ $0.74 risk

Call ratio looking for some sell-off/correction to $145 which is a high vol by price spot. If this happens I'll buy the 200 strike call for less than 0.74c to remove risk and create a free butterfly.

I don't have a comment on your trade, but I never got notified despite you @-pinging me. Hmm. :\

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

When markets are moving two-sided every week I'll have probably 50 underlyings on my radar for opportunities.. but with a 12 vix I get 5 AT MOST.. its insane man. This is why its essential for an options trader to speculate some capital for earnings season trades to get occurrences up and keep your money flowing. Its something I'm realizing in my 9th year trading.

Good to see this! Since my debit trade game is so weak (gotta do something about that), I've been gritting my teeth about having to sit out this low-vol crap - and it's just killing me. However, I did a TGT earnings play yesterday, and I realized that even though it's not my usual style of trading, it's a hell of a lot better than not trading at all - so I at least got started on the same realization that you got to.

Looks like this earnings season is mostly over, at least in the underlyings I'm interested in, but it's definitely something to keep in mind for future volatility desert crossings.

 

[Overnight]

...

Looks like this earnings season is mostly over, at least in the underlyings I'm interested in, but it's definitely something to keep in mind for future volatility desert crossings.

Ahh, but do not forget, there are always the whisper numbers of "how the stores are doing" during the Black Friday stuff. IV may increase for you on that weekend with retailers. So maybe keep an eye out for the following week IV bits? If they look low now, maybe they will be higher next week?

 

[BlueWaterSailor]

Ahh, but do not forget, there are always the whisper numbers of "how the stores are doing" during the Black Friday stuff. IV may increase for you on that weekend with retailers. So maybe keep an eye out for the following week IV bits? If they look low now, maybe they will be higher next week?

I haven't been through it yet - remember, I'm just a beginning trader (and pretty crap at it, according to Maverick74, since I mostly trade the short side ) - but rising prices are usually associated with falling IV. Last bloody thing I want to see right now.

 

[.sigma]

Ahh, but do not forget, there are always the whisper numbers of "how the stores are doing" during the Black Friday stuff. IV may increase for you on that weekend with retailers. So maybe keep an eye out for the following week IV bits? If they look low now, maybe they will be higher next week?

$TGT IV tends to get crushed on earnings then drifts lower for months until it starts to rise again for the next earnings event.

You could probably fade $TGT with a bull put vertical but that's ballsy.. Keep trading the earnings event again and again and it'll all make more sense over time.