My dilemma - too good to be true? How long can I last?

Quote from knifecatcher:

Cheetos,

I don't think double or triple down is a good idea long term... I know that's where a lot of consistency coming from. I prefer to get out when enter incorrectly (and possibly reenter later). It will hurt profitability short term but I want to survive first.

The scenerio Steve described is very real. Do you have steps put in to manage this?

Regards,
KC
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Agreed.

It's good to see you're doing so well. It's just a double down style with bottom picking (if that's what you're doing, too lazy to look at your trades) has a characteristic of making larger than normal profits at times while being very susceptible to that one big event, black swan or otherwise.

Best wishes otherwise though, it's good to see someone feeling good about trading. Hope you have a system for protecting your and your friends' initial stake in place, just in case.
 
"Agreed.

It's good to see you're doing so well. It's just a double down style with bottom picking (if that's what you're doing, too lazy to look at your trades) has a characteristic of making larger than normal profits at times while being very susceptible to that one big event, black swan or otherwise."

As I explained earlier though the trades that I already feel bit iffy about I go in w/ less shares to begin w/. My normal trades for stock like ITWO is 4k to 5K at a time but that is when I am only sure about a quick move of at least a dime.

Some trades, I prefer to go into in increments. W/ ITWO trade in the afternoon, I was only looking for a small hit so I took little bit at a time and at total I was only in 4500 shares. This approach has helped me quite a bit.

If I am wrong the first time, so far 99% right the second time and I usually make profit instantly on the 2nd entry. So by booking profit on the 2nd entry, I can't sit back for the price to comeback for the 1st entry knowing if I am anywhere close to breaking even on the 1st entry, I am overall in profit. Who know though. I guess it would differ from situation to situation, I mean when I went into ITWO, it was at its low of the day plus being down over 20% so it really couldn't go much lower so I knew at most I lose $300. Maybe it will backfire one day and lead to big loss but w/ tricky stocks like VLO, it has helped me so much.
 
Sounds OK to scale in your position as long as you are not pushing the size. I also "mainly" trade countertrend S&P emini in the morning (work in the afternoon). I used to do a lot of doubling up and got some 50% months doing that but I stop for the reasons everybody mentioned here. I have psychological flaws in handling that kind of heat when the shit hits the fan.
:(
 
Finished the day up almost $2000. Got it above 2k but shorted KBH and it ran against me. One can make lots of money on that stock if one is very patient. Got in too early at 61.56 and 61.67, 1000 shares each. Then they really started to squeeze shorts, my dam luck and took it above 62 and I was oh man, not again, another afternoon blowout. But I looked at the parameters and thought they can't take any higher so my max loss from the trade would be $800. Then the specialist decided he busted enough balls so he start to push it back down. Covered both with about $100 loss. I am done. Afternoon is still my demon. Only if I timed it better. I could be sitting at $3000 profit now.

And of course, now the stock is at 61.40s. Just unblievable.

Have a nice weekend everyone!!
 
Quote from cheetos:

Finished the day up almost $2000. Got it above 2k but shorted KBH and it ran against me. One can make lots of money on that stock if one is very patient. Got in too early at 61.56 and 61.67, 1000 shares each. Then they really started to squeeze shorts, my dam luck and took it above 62 and I was oh man, not again, another afternoon blowout. But I looked at the parameters and thought they can't take any higher so my max loss from the trade would be $800. Then the specialist decided he busted enough balls so he start to push it back down. Covered both with about $100 loss. I am done. Afternoon is still my demon. Only if I timed it better. I could be sitting at $3000 profit now.

And of course, now the stock is at 61.40s. Just unblievable.

Have a nice weekend everyone!!
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Thats life. Why not post this mess in the journals section of ET where it belongs? Also, blotter pics are more crediable than your copy/paste technique.:p
 
Up $1916 for the day. Is anyone else trading WPSC? Crazy stock, no? Watched it whole day and shorted 3 different lots of 1000 shares at 27.08, 27.20, and 27.29. near end of the day. Got out with a tidy profit by covering all at 27.03. Now, the darn thing went high as 27.5 after I covered.

The way the stock was moving the whole day it seems today was the day to break short's balls because the way MMs were moving and supporting prices at various points.

I bet this thing is gonna sink tomorrow after earning's in the morning. I was very tempted to buy some puts but too tired and the bell rang.
 
nice day, you gonna start posting your daily P&L's in the P&L thread?

Quote from cheetos:

Up $1916 for the day. Is anyone else trading WPSC? Crazy stock, no? Watched it whole day and shorted 3 different lots of 1000 shares at 27.08, 27.20, and 27.29. near end of the day. Got out with a tidy profit by covering all at 27.03. Now, the darn thing went high as 27.5 after I covered.

The way the stock was moving the whole day it seems today was the day to break short's balls because the way MMs were moving and supporting prices at various points.

I bet this thing is gonna sink tomorrow after earning's in the morning. I was very tempted to buy some puts but too tired and the bell rang.
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Wow cheetos! I got a couple of scratch days (maybe losing 1-tick on one of them) for this couple of weeks while you are like making money every single day... Am I reading this right?

Good trading!
 
Thanks, knifecatcher. I have been quite fortunate last week. Had some of my best days middle of last week. Today was a bit of a struggle because I played with the wrong stock (EBAY) middle of the day. I knew in my mind that this thing was gong to keep sinking because I watched BEST short the stock like crazy the whole day but it has been down so much past 5 days that I kept hitting it to go up. Broke even on a handful of entries with 2000 shares but my last entry cost me $350.

But I did figure out what the game is. This time its the options MMs that are driving the stock down. I bet they made a huge bear beat after the last earnings and now I think they are trying to finish off the stock at 30 this Friday. AMEX MM id twice under cut the bid by .15 cents and both times they succeeded taking the stock down in a hurry.

But I remember the second time they did this, there were tons of buying pushing the stock right back up to have someone else sell just as much to push it back down. I mean this is in excess of 500K shares per minute during the battle. After seeing that and losing $350, stayed away from the stock.
 
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