My dilemma - too good to be true? How long can I last?

"What also stood out to me is that you took a $900 hit one day and an $1100 hit another. I know people who make your numbers a day, but what distinguishes them is that they barely ever take hits that large. However, you could be fine taking hits that large as long as they are a part of your risk/reward parameters and not mistakes of judgment. "

When I took $1100 hit today, it did not feel good at all to finish that way but I was up $4500 (biggest intraday high for me) so it was not a huge loss. This was the most I made in a day too. Before that it was $2800 about 2 weeks ago.

All of my big trade losses happened or started after 2pm. I actually make most of my profit by 10:30 to 11:00. Of course, I am very happy w/ the profit but I just feel like if I don't defeat the afternoon demon, will never become a good trader. So many days I try and I don't think I have hit one big homerun in the afternoon but got caught w/ several double plays.

At this point, my risk parameter is one day big loss will eventually happen even if I get a perfect entry, some idiot could decide ruin it by selling million shares or something, but as long as I can make at least $1500 per day, at this point I can lose $3000 and not get all upset.
 
"I think Ameritrade, just like the other brokers caps the $8 commish after 2k shares. It's premium commissions any way you put it. You see him post that he does partials to work the positions, 500 shares at $8 is 1.6 cents a share. With 1500 block, it's .53 cents a share, still a high commission in today's daytrading standards."

Those trades I posted are broken up by the way its filled. I usually almost never break up my order. When I buy 1500 shares of appl, vlo, sndk, I sell 1500 all in one shot so it cost me about $14 roundtrip plus about $3 SEC fee.
 
"I can tell they're judgment mistakes though because you said two or three times that sometimes you just hate selling a loser. As every trader knows, those losers will come full force if there's any unpatchable chink in your armor, without a doubt. After a nice winning streak they will pile onto you day after day until the doubt in the back of your mind comes forward and says you were wrong all along. It was just luck, etc."

Well, I was thinking like that 2 weeks ago but I have been at this close to 6 weeks now and I had only 1 day of loss. That was the day I was up $1400 or $1600 blew it all on shorting GOOG (again after 4PM) and lost like $800 per day. And only one day did I make below $1000 which again I was up $1600 and blew in the last hour in the GM thinking it would bounce back up.

So at this point, I know I can do this for a living. I no longer question whether its a luck anymore. Any case, even thinking the worst, I figure I can make at leaset several hundread dollars per day so no longer feel bad about giving up a law degree for this.
 
"on da other hand vlo is as killer'n' prolly easier to trade when oil is up 3% or after report'n'even there u need some experience to make good money...dunno what to believe."

That is why you only short the top and when all the parameters meet. Then you will have 5 minutes window before it runs against you. When this stock iwas rising to 70 recently, even if BB, MACD, Stochastistic slow, all meet, it was only good for 10 to 20 cents profit at most. But if you only short the true top, you can make a little or come out not losing money because it will about 5 minutes of sideway trading before the parameters turn against you for another leg up. I see the specialist trick on this stock. When he is running it up and the stock goes screaming up, he will let the stock drop just a bit to let the parameters return back to him but won't let it drop too much to ruin the momentum.

In hindsight, the best thing to do w/ this stock is just buy tons of puts 2 months out and close the computer when everyone is screaming mad about the oil price. What goes up, always comes down.
 
Quote from cheetos:

"What also stood out to me is that you took a $900 hit one day and an $1100 hit another. I know people who make your numbers a day, but what distinguishes them is that they barely ever take hits that large. However, you could be fine taking hits that large as long as they are a part of your risk/reward parameters and not mistakes of judgment. "

When I took $1100 hit today, it did not feel good at all to finish that way but I was up $4500 (biggest intraday high for me) so it was not a huge loss. This was the most I made in a day too. Before that it was $2800 about 2 weeks ago.

All of my big trade losses happened or started after 2pm. I actually make most of my profit by 10:30 to 11:00. Of course, I am very happy w/ the profit but I just feel like if I don't defeat the afternoon demon, will never become a good trader. So many days I try and I don't think I have hit one big homerun in the afternoon but got caught w/ several double plays.

At this point, my risk parameter is one day big loss will eventually happen even if I get a perfect entry, some idiot could decide ruin it by selling million shares or something, but as long as I can make at least $1500 per day, at this point I can lose $3000 and not get all upset.
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Right that's fine, but it's not so much the win/loss balance as your emotions at the time of the loss and what you permit yourself to feel -- as in your risk tolerance levels and how strict you are at keeping them.

As far as your last paragraph goes, it WILL happen. It always does, because the markets largely are random and no one can possibly outwit them. That's why the big players always stress risk management first, and that's how they are able to hold onto their gains: by ensuring that they are always aware of when they are in hot water. You will always see that trait first: a willingness to be wrong and not care a shred. In my experience it's so unbelievably hard to get your mind to think counterintuitively when it comes to those situations. But that's how people make money, by being on the other side of those who are losing, causing those out of balance moves.

It seems to me that luck is on your side, but there's also a good element of skill you might have as well, since you had some consistency before and now. But there's still this feeling I get that you're focusing on your wins while a part of you in the back of your mind expects to be hit by a train somewhere around the bend. I'm sure you know that kind of fear, if it's there, will cause that to be reality at some point or another.

Good streaks are great. And it's good you're identifying problem areas/times of the day. But ultimately the biggest problem areas I and all other traders face comes from what's inside and how we deal emotinally with wins and losses, rather than when the markets are good or bad.
 
Quote from cheetos:

Well, I was thinking like that 2 weeks ago but I have been at this close to 6 weeks now and I had only 1 day of loss.
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Trust me, those feelings don't go away after two weeks. The subconscious mind is a lot more powerful than most people can imagine, and it requires heavy, consciously-directed effort to rewire those associations with pain. That begins with identification and ends with endless effort (paradoxically). Make sure you do not focus on the numbers, and especially on your gains, as a measure of your skill. Pay attention to your losses and how you react to them.
 
Cheetos,

I wasn't all that worried until your last few posts... maybe it is just late. I think you are already sick of all the advices you are getting. You could be onto something but you should get your law degree because you can. Every joe can trade... the market will always be there.

KC
 
Quote from Dogballoon:

Hydrant? You saying I piss on hydroblunt? :D
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:)

We all should get some sleep. I am not trading tomorrow (need to drive my wife somewhere) so I can stay up late.
 
Cheetos:

You're apparently having such tremendous success, but with all due respect, I have no clue as to HOW you are acheiving your results, and this does create considerable doubt?

So if you don't mind, rather than posting your actual trades, can you specifically define what your approach is? Time frame, indicators, signals, entry/exit etc.?

I mean, let me draw an analogy. If this were a medical website, you would be like a doctor who claims to be curing cancer most of the time, but you're not really telling us HOW you are acheiving this milestone. I'm not trying to be a smart ass---but without some insight into what your system involves, merely talking about amazing trade resuts just won't be enough to really invite a serious audience and/or discussion.

China
 
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