My dilemma - too good to be true? How long can I last?

Mike805 · May 3, 2006

A few observations:

1. You mentioned a 3k daily loss limit. At this point I estimate your working capital to be 40-50k. You're daily loss limit seems too high, i.e. you stand a greater risk of ruin. For comparison sake, I believe that my own personal risk parameters are comparatively very high yet my daily loss limit is 2k and I trade with 4 times your capital.

2. To me you seem scared because you are asking "is it too good to be true?". It sounds like, subconsciously, you already know you are going to fail, or you think that eventually you will fail. This is insecurity talking and will cause you to have "blow-up" days. I know this because I've had many of these wonderful days... you are not psychologically strong enough to trade the size you are trading. Stop trading such size while you are still ahead.

3. An old truism in the markets: Making money is much easier than keeping it -- see point 2.

4. $8 per trade? You are scaling with 100-2000 lots and paying $8 per trade?? This is asinine. Silly example: 60, 300 share trades at $8 per = $460 in commission. 60, 300 share trades at .005 (IB rate) per share = $90. After you switch to another broker can you just write me a check for the difference in comm?

5. $8 per trade? Ouch...

max401 · May 3, 2006

Quote from cheetos:

04/21/2006 10:07:54 Bought 2000 PLAY @ 12.665 -25,337.00 $18,257.72
04/21/2006 10:07:54 Bought 3000 PLAY @ 12.70 -38,100.00 -$19,842.28
04/21/2006 10:13:50 Sold 3500 PLAY @ 12.75 44,616.63 $24,774.35
04/21/2006 10:13:50 Sold 1500 PLAY @ 12.752 19,127.41 $43,901.76

Anyone can produce "winning" trades by regurgitating past price information.

Bitstream · May 3, 2006

trade confirmations wud do just fine..post 'em'n'u'maybe some1 will give u da attention u crave otherwise it's all a pointless mind trip.

Hydroblunt · May 3, 2006

Quote from cheetos:

LOL making "only" 200 a day is not the learning curve. Almost trader I have ever known loses money at first for several months, it's normal and expected. Some people take over a year of losses to finally get it. Before you outplay the average Joe Blow you need to understand what Joe Blow acts upon. Best lessons in trading come from learning through mistakes and those mistakes cost money.

I mean, you make just outrageous statements. You trade VLO which is one of the most brutal specialists among the oils. The NYSE oils are known for having the toughest specialists. Meanwhile you feel the homebuilders are too manipulated by the specialists, when that is the easier sector to trade out of the main ones with the specialists being minor leeching nuisances, nothing like the oils and coals. Those stocks are moved by hedge funds and index arbs, not the specialists.

And you almost always catch the perfect tops and bottom. Jesus christ, you're like some kind of superior human being. Whats funny is what is said in Reminiscinces of a Stock Operator about catching tops and bottoms. You should read it.

Oh yeah and I just realized that you pay $8 dollar commissions. Thats like 1 cent a share. This story just keeps getting better and better. It's so unbelievable that Im starting to think that it has to be true.

BSAM · May 3, 2006

Quote from Hydroblunt:

Either this is pure BS or he is simply that very lucky outlier on the distribution curve......

Yeah.....A "fishy" smell emanates from my monitor when I read this thread.

Bitstream · May 3, 2006

i think commish are $8 flat so that's all he pays for his 1k shares pos...aapl is 1 of da best stock [well, it waz for a long time, now it is tougher] to trade intraday even for beginners; ranges are good'n'pretty much predictable jumpin' from supp'n'res every 10c with smoothness...on da other hand vlo is as killer'n' prolly easier to trade when oil is up 3% or after report'n'even there u need some experience to make good money...dunno what to believe.

Hydroblunt · May 3, 2006

Quote from Bitstream:

i think commish are $8 flat so that's all he pays for his 1k shares pos...aapl is 1 of da best stock [well, it waz for a long time, now it is tougher] to trade intraday even for beginners; ranges are good'n'pretty much predictable jumpin' from supp'n'res every 10c with smoothness...on da other hand vlo is as killer'n' prolly easier to trade when oil is up 3% or after report'n'even there u need some experience to make good money...dunno what to believe.

I think Ameritrade, just like the other brokers caps the $8 commish after 2k shares. It's premium commissions any way you put it. You see him post that he does partials to work the positions, 500 shares at $8 is 1.6 cents a share. With 1500 block, it's .53 cents a share, still a high commission in today's daytrading standards.

As for AAPL, lol maybe for an intermediate trader but I have watched new guys & even novices get demolished by that stock with it's "great" range & liquidity. It's common sense, you're going after the hot game in town, you and every other joe shmoe, hedge fund, institution and I-bank are going at it. There is a reason why for years the best stategy to teach to new guys for NYSE and even Naz were stocks doing 500k-1mil daily volume.

Dogballoon · May 3, 2006

Quote from Mike805:

2. To me you seem scared because you are asking "is it too good to be true?". It sounds like, subconsciously, you already know you are going to fail, or you think that eventually you will fail. This is insecurity talking and will cause you to have "blow-up" days. I know this because I've had many of these wonderful days... you are not psychologically strong enough to trade the size you are trading. Stop trading such size while you are still ahead.

3. An old truism in the markets: Making money is much easier than keeping it -- see point 2.

#2 stood out for me too on reading your post. I also get a sense that you subconsciously have doubt in the back of your mind, probably because of your long previous losing streak, possibly self-esteem issues. Possibly also because you feel like trading is a default career choice.

What also stood out to me is that you took a $900 hit one day and an $1100 hit another. I know people who make your numbers a day, but what distinguishes them is that they barely ever take hits that large. However, you could be fine taking hits that large as long as they are a part of your risk/reward parameters and not mistakes of judgment.

I can tell they're judgment mistakes though because you said two or three times that sometimes you just hate selling a loser. As every trader knows, those losers will come full force if there's any unpatchable chink in your armor, without a doubt. After a nice winning streak they will pile onto you day after day until the doubt in the back of your mind comes forward and says you were wrong all along. It was just luck, etc. It seems like you do have the skills to correctly play winners, at least in a certain set of market conditions. But a fear of dumping losers will always knock you off your pedestal until you determine the source of that fear.

Also, I somehow doubt you're being dishonest, as I can't imagine what anyone would gain by writing a post like this if it weren't true.

knifecatcher · May 3, 2006

Good posts from dog and hydrant. I only trade emini so I did not look at cheeze's stock trades but I kinda believe in cheeze's numbers because something like that happened to me. It did not end as well as I would like the first time because I was inexperienced. I agree with dogballoon. The real skill is in knowing how to lose.

Cheetos, I think you should go at a pace you are comfortable with and don't need to prove anything or even post here. TAKE A VACATION if that thought crosses your mind.

cheetos · May 3, 2006

"And you almost always catch the perfect tops and bottom. Jesus christ, you're like some kind of superior human being. Whats funny is what is said in Reminiscinces of a Stock Operator about catching tops and bottoms. You should read it.

Oh yeah and I just realized that you pay $8 dollar commissions. Thats like 1 cent a share. This story just keeps getting better and better. It's so unbelievable that Im starting to think that it has to be true."

The problem with getting those bottoms or tops is I get out way too quick because I am making money w/n seconds. Only after I sold it gor few hundread to sometimed several hundread dollar profit, then I realize damn, if I held it anohter 15 minutes, I would be up like $1500. Thus, the problem w/ finding the bottm is I don't really know until I am out of it because I always take profits too early.

I posted before that I get $7 trades w/ AMTD now. I haggled another $1 off and they matched the Scotttrade price.

I checked other brokers but those per share brokers are only worth it if you few hundread shares per transaction. Almost all of trades are minimum 1000 to 1500 shares, except GOOG. And stock like GM and PLAY, 4000 to 5000 shares so #s don't add up.

And the customer service at AMTD is amazing. They literally bend over backwards to cater to me. Any complaint gives me at least 10 free trades. They answer my call right away and call the MMs to get better fills. I am very happy w/ them.