My Daytrading Method

Quote from eminitrader007:

Currently, NQ and ER are above the value-range and YM and ES are below it.

Sell-limit 1312.50
Stop: 1317.

If ES is trading above 1311 at 9.30.
Sell-limit: 1315
Stop: 1319
More...

Here is another mistake that I made today.

ER and NQ were trading above their value-ranges so I should have waited to sell on a rally in the ES. If atleast 3 of the 4 indexes were trading below the value-ranges, then I should have shorted at the value-range.

1315 would have been the ideal price to short.

We'll probably see some chopiness till Wednesday and then we'll know whether we are going up or down for sure.
 
Quote from eminitrader007:

We'll probably see some chopiness till Wednesday and then we'll know whether we are going up or down for sure.
More...

emt7-
don't forget the end-of-month/end of quarter games that the fund managers play next week.
pt
 
Quote from PaperTrader:

emt7-
sorry if i missed it earlier in your thread, but what are your profit targets with your trades. when you consider a range day in the ES spans about 6-7 points and a trend day maybe 8-12 it seems many of your trades get caught up in the middle and get chopped up.
you ran into a TON of support around the 1308 area this morning (S1, VAL, VP support, and PDL).
i agree with hispatrader, once the trade starts going your way you might want to tighten up that stop. if not b/e, maybe to 2 points instead of 4?
good luck and keep at!:)
PaperTrader
More...

Here is my plan:

I paper-traded in Feb and it was good. I traded actual money(1 contract) in March and it was not good. So now I'm back to paper trading. If in another 2-4 weeks the results are good. I'll start with 2 contracts (actual money) with a 4 pt. profits on 1 and will reduce the stops by 2 points on the remaining contract. This way even if the market reverses, I'll still make a point.

Had I taken 4 pts. profits in March, I would have had only 2 losers.

Thank-you all for the comments/suggestations.
 
It seems that you're in counter-step with your strategy: winning when you paper trade, losing real money, then again.

Just paper trading and backtesting will probably not help, you have to review your whole approach and understand its weaknesses, find their fixes, test them, then start again small.

I'd suggest not to get eager and start with two contracts. Keep it small until you refine your strategy, and it consistently makes money. Take your time!
Quote from eminitrader007:

Here is my plan:

I paper-traded in Feb and it was good. I traded actual money(1 contract) in March and it was not good. So now I'm back to paper trading. If in another 2-4 weeks the results are good. I'll start with 2 contracts (actual money) with a 4 pt. profits on 1 and will reduce the stops by 2 points on the remaining contract. This way even if the market reverses, I'll still make a point.

Had I taken 4 pts. profits in March, I would have had only 2 losers.

Thank-you all for the comments/suggestations.
More...
 
Quote from eminitrader007:



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from eminitrader007:

Currently, NQ and ER are above the value-range and YM and ES are below it.

Sell-limit 1312.50
Stop: 1317.

If ES is trading above 1311 at 9.30.
Sell-limit: 1315
Stop: 1319
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Sell-limit: 1311
Stop: 1315
More...

Emini,

Why do you change the bias that often? Had you sold at 1312.5, as you first posted, you wouldn't have been stopped! did I miss something?

Reading your first pages, it seems to me that your strategy is easy to backtest. Did you do any serious backtesting?

Thanks for you time and thanks for sharing.
MomoNY.
 
Quote from cnms2:

It seems that you're in counter-step with your strategy: winning when you paper trade, losing real money, then again.

Just paper trading and backtesting will probably not help, you have to review your whole approach and understand its weaknesses, find their fixes, test them, then start again small.

I'd suggest not to get eager and start with two contracts. Keep it small until you refine your strategy, and it consistently makes money. Take your time!
More...

Most of my wins came when there were intraday trends during the day. In March what we saw was mostly reverse to the mean as in this case reverse to the value-range.

This is likely to continue on Monday and Tuesday. After the Fed meeting we should see more of a clear direction. If I were trading real money I would either not trade these two days or sell at LT resistance.
 
Quote from momoNY:

Emini,

Why do you change the bias that often? Had you sold at 1312.5, as you first posted, you wouldn't have been stopped! did I miss something?

Reading your first pages, it seems to me that your strategy is easy to backtest. Did you do any serious backtesting?

Thanks for you time and thanks for sharing.
MomoNY.
More...

Well I guess that is where discipline and patience comes into play. Seriously though since ER and NQ were above the range, I should have sold around 1215.

I backtested this strategy for the last few years and the results were good.
 
I'm looking to short a few on monday's open @1316.5-1317.25 area...exit within 1300.5-1295.75 area.

Either fade me or play me...:p But either way you'll know once we open up..Good luck friend

Nice Thread
 
Here are the value-ranges for tomorrow.

ES: 1314-1315
ER: 755-756
NQ: 1702-1704
YM: 11322-11328.

Market Profile:
VAH: 1314.25
POC: 1311.75
VAL: 1309.75

YM and ER closed above the value-ranges, whereas ES and NQ below it. It could very well be another range-bound day.

Pivot:

S1: 1308
R1: 1317

Here's my support and resistance:

S: 1309.5
R: 1318.5
 
Analysis of Friday's action.

The markets were range-bound on Friday. ER and NQ showed significant strength. The low on Friday did not come close to the value-ranges. If the markets were to move higher from here ER and NQ need to take charge.

Although the ER is at an all-time high--- ES, YM and NQ have significant over-head resistance.

As you can see in the attachment: In the last 2 weeks the value-ranges have been stuck between 1307-1315.

For now the ideal strategy will be to buy around 1307-1308 and sell above 1315-1318. After you buy or sell if it does not come back to the value-range, the prices will likely continue in that direction.
 

Attachments

You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top