VR 1313-1314
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
My Daytrading Method
- Thread starter eminitrader007
- Start date
Quote from JimmyJam:
The market opened at your Value Point, meandered for an hour, and then blew off for the days high of probably 1312 or so.
The market never traded below the 40 SMA, so a Sell Signal was never triggered.
As it is currently constituted, your trading methodology continues to ignore the dominant trend of the market, thus while your value areas are significant for what they represent (the point at which the highest number of contracts traded in the previous trading session), you are not trading them correctly and probably have a win rate of something around 50/50 (wins/losses).
With a 4 pt stop and a 4 pt target that gives you a negative expectation after commissions.
I'd examine the method a little closer and attempt to get it at least in the 55/45 (or higher) range before committing any real capital to it.
Best Regards,
Jimmy
Jimmy: What's your risk/reward points per trade?
Quote from eminitrader007:
I would consider today's action as a change in trend. The market hasn't moved this way for a long time. I will take long-signals only from here. I'll see how this goes from here and maybe re-evaluate the strategy at the end of this month.
The only way I would go short is if there is no follow-through early tomorrow.
Futures fell back into the VR after breaking-out above yesterday's high. Will try one more time from the short side and see how it pans out.
Good Morning,
I use 3 pt stops but I don't wait for them to get hit. When I see that the market is moving against me and approaching the 40 SMA (based on H/L/C) I bail.
***
I like to use the 40 SMA to determine the days trend (below the 40 SMA=Short, above the 40 SMA=Long), can't get any simpler than that ...
***
and I really don't like to trade during the first 1/2 to 1 hour of the days open. My research has shown me that 8 times out of ten I'll get headfakes and bullshit breakouts/breakdowns (which always end up costing me dough); 1 time out of ten I will get a decent move for 2 to 4 points, which then reverses and the other 1 time out of ten I will get in early on the trend of the day.
So lets do the math:
8 stop-outs for -2.00+ pts ES (remember I cut before my stop gets hit, I use the stop being hit as the last recourse, just in case I don't cut the trade, go away and don't see the move happening, etc.) = -16.00+ pts ES
1 short term move worth 2.00 pts ES = 2.00 pts Es
1 short term move at the beginning of the trend = 4.00 pts ES
+ 6.00 pts ES vs. -16.00 pts ES leaves me with a net:
-10.00 pts ES from trading during the first 1/2 hour to 1 hour of the open, plus commissions
Later,
Jimmy
I use 3 pt stops but I don't wait for them to get hit. When I see that the market is moving against me and approaching the 40 SMA (based on H/L/C) I bail.
***
I like to use the 40 SMA to determine the days trend (below the 40 SMA=Short, above the 40 SMA=Long), can't get any simpler than that ...
***
and I really don't like to trade during the first 1/2 to 1 hour of the days open. My research has shown me that 8 times out of ten I'll get headfakes and bullshit breakouts/breakdowns (which always end up costing me dough); 1 time out of ten I will get a decent move for 2 to 4 points, which then reverses and the other 1 time out of ten I will get in early on the trend of the day.
So lets do the math:
8 stop-outs for -2.00+ pts ES (remember I cut before my stop gets hit, I use the stop being hit as the last recourse, just in case I don't cut the trade, go away and don't see the move happening, etc.) = -16.00+ pts ES
1 short term move worth 2.00 pts ES = 2.00 pts Es
1 short term move at the beginning of the trend = 4.00 pts ES
+ 6.00 pts ES vs. -16.00 pts ES leaves me with a net:
-10.00 pts ES from trading during the first 1/2 hour to 1 hour of the open, plus commissions
Later,
Jimmy
Quote from eminitrader007:
Sold 1313.25
Stop 1317.25
Close @ EOD
Exited @ 1316.25 during the afternoon.
Even if I had gone long at that opening price, I would have been stopped out. Need to re-evaluate my strategy. Will take a break for few days from my journal.
Talked to one of the guys that I interned for few years ago. He basically told me to give up day-trading and maybe do position trading. Use EOD data, stop picking tops and bottoms (go with the long-term trend) and not worry about intraday fluctuations.
I had done that in the past with decent success but thought I would be able to make more daytrading.
Anyway VR for tomorrow is 1313-1314.
Quote from eminitrader007:
Talked to one of the guys that I interned for few years ago. He basically told me to give up day-trading and maybe do position trading. Use EOD data, stop picking tops and bottoms (go with the long-term trend) and not worry about intraday fluctuations.
When you do that you still have to be disciplined, and stick with one average. In the long term trading, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 day moving averages results the same amount, just more trades with shorter averages.
Man, that was a sweet and fast break-out at 10am (apprpx., EST) this morning. Sometimes the market will just give you money, but you gotta be there to take it ...
Quitting already Emini?, I'm disappointed, no, seriously, I am. I was intrigued by your willingness to try a very unique and interesting methodology for making money in the markets.
Your value point is a great concept, and it makes a good beginning for a sound trading system. I've thrown out plenty of ideas, suggestions and literature that you can read to kinda get you to experiment with it, add-on and modify it, because if you just "trade it straight", you're going to be very disappointed (it's a "one trick pony").
And if you think uh, "swing trading" using EOD data is going to bring you better results, why just take a look at all those SHORTS who got caught in that "squeeze" on Tuesday (can you say Mommie!). If you try that route, I hope you go with any of the many and different "Options on the indices" products out there, and stay away from the futures, otherwise you might go bankrupt!
I (and every other trader who is making headway in the markets here), put in 10-20 hours of work (like everyday) for at least a couple of gut check losing years before we put together a methodology which consistently wins (and we still put in at least 10-20 hours a week, seeking to hon, refine, practice, review and study our systems).
There really is plenty of literature out there, and there are plenty of free websites in this age of information that can help you design a good trading system (which this most definitely is not, "I'm shorting at Point A, I'm shorting at Point C, I'm shorting at Point D" based on some arbitrary method used to analyze what happened yesterday, or the day before ...)
Good Luck to you bro, but this game is for the hungry, who stay hungry. The thing is, you have the one thing that most traders lack (good discipline, which is GREAT!), but as far as the rest is concerned, there's just too much money at stake to "half-ass" it.
Best Regards (and I hope you think about it and decide to put in a couple of years of 20 hour days before you decide to throw in the towel),
Jimmy Jam
P.S.
Hey BGP, I like the 3 minute timeframe for intra-day trading. When comparing it to the 1min and 5 min, it fits nicely right in the middle. You won't enter too many setups, but you can still get in the major moves pretty quickly.
Quitting already Emini?, I'm disappointed, no, seriously, I am. I was intrigued by your willingness to try a very unique and interesting methodology for making money in the markets.
Your value point is a great concept, and it makes a good beginning for a sound trading system. I've thrown out plenty of ideas, suggestions and literature that you can read to kinda get you to experiment with it, add-on and modify it, because if you just "trade it straight", you're going to be very disappointed (it's a "one trick pony").
And if you think uh, "swing trading" using EOD data is going to bring you better results, why just take a look at all those SHORTS who got caught in that "squeeze" on Tuesday (can you say Mommie!). If you try that route, I hope you go with any of the many and different "Options on the indices" products out there, and stay away from the futures, otherwise you might go bankrupt!
I (and every other trader who is making headway in the markets here), put in 10-20 hours of work (like everyday) for at least a couple of gut check losing years before we put together a methodology which consistently wins (and we still put in at least 10-20 hours a week, seeking to hon, refine, practice, review and study our systems).
There really is plenty of literature out there, and there are plenty of free websites in this age of information that can help you design a good trading system (which this most definitely is not, "I'm shorting at Point A, I'm shorting at Point C, I'm shorting at Point D" based on some arbitrary method used to analyze what happened yesterday, or the day before ...)
Good Luck to you bro, but this game is for the hungry, who stay hungry. The thing is, you have the one thing that most traders lack (good discipline, which is GREAT!), but as far as the rest is concerned, there's just too much money at stake to "half-ass" it.
Best Regards (and I hope you think about it and decide to put in a couple of years of 20 hour days before you decide to throw in the towel),
Jimmy Jam
P.S.
Hey BGP, I like the 3 minute timeframe for intra-day trading. When comparing it to the 1min and 5 min, it fits nicely right in the middle. You won't enter too many setups, but you can still get in the major moves pretty quickly.
Quote from JimmyJam:
Man, that was a sweet and fast break-out at 10am (apprpx., EST) this morning. Sometimes the market will just give you money, but you gotta be there to take it ...
Quitting already Emini?, I'm disappointed, no, seriously, I am. I was intrigued by your willingness to try a very unique and interesting methodology for making money in the markets.
Your value point is a great concept, and it makes a good beginning for a sound trading system. I've thrown out plenty of ideas, suggestions and literature that you can read to kinda get you to experiment with it, add-on and modify it, because if you just "trade it straight", you're going to be very disappointed (it's a "one trick pony").
And if you think uh, "swing trading" using EOD data is going to bring you better results, why just take a look at all those SHORTS who got caught in that "squeeze" on Tuesday (can you say Mommie!). If you try that route, I hope you go with any of the many and different "Options on the indices" products out there, and stay away from the futures, otherwise you might go bankrupt!
I (and every other trader here), put in 10-20 hours of work (like everyday) for at least a couple of gut check losing years before we put together a methodology which consistently wins (and we still put in at least 10-20 hours a week, seeking to hon, refine, practice, review and study our systems).
There really is plenty of literature out there, and there are plenty of free websites in this age of information that can help you design a good trading system (which this most definitely is not, "I'm shorting at Point A, I'm shorting at Point C, I'm shorting at Point D" based on some arbitrary method used to analyze what happened yesterday, or the day before ...)
Good Luck to you bro, but this game is for the hungry, who stay hungry. The thing is, you have the one thing that most traders lack (good discipline), but as far as the rest is concerned, there's just too much money at stake to "half-ass" it.
Best Regards (and I hope you think about it and decide to put in a couple of years of 20 hour days before you decide to throw in the towel),
Jimmy Jam
P.S.
Hey BGP, I like the 3 minute timeframe for intra-day trading. When comparing it to the 1min and 5 min, it fits nicely right in the middle. You won't enter too many setups, but you can still get in the major moves pretty quickly.
Hey Jimmy,
I'm not quitting yet. Just taking a break for few days to weeks. I will be back in a month or even less. Even though this strategy did not work well in the last month, I haven't lost much money either. Just need to refine it and incorporate another indicator. I'm testing different MAs to see which one will work better for my risk/reward.
Looking into options too. Bought May 128 SPY puts @ .50. Maybe futures is just not for me so looking at other trading vehicles.
Thanks for your encouragement.