My Conclusions

Quote from luh3417:

I started trading options because I thought I had an edge. A friend's nephew is in the industry and said "I would not trade options at retail". Following, my experiences and conclusions.

I read a few academic books about options and its quite interesting. But trading them retail, I found that I would never get an inside fill (inside the bid/ask) and it was hard to get my order filled even at the current bid or ask. For every underlying, there are often dozens of derived options, thus they're not very liquid. Further, the idea of putting on complex positions described in the book (strangles, condors, etc.) just seemed overwhelming. I never tried it, but I felt certain I'd get hurt while struggling against the illiquidity, to leg in or leg out of a synthetic position. It often felt like other people were cutting in line ahead of me.

I then read the book "Options Market Making" and things got a bit clearer. All that academic stuff does get used... but only by the banks writing the options and the market makers making markets. These people have rooms full of computers and math guys constantly balancing out all their greeks for them. They never speculate, they never take any risk, and they always make money. Furthermore, the market makers, get inside fills all day long. They don't face the liquidity and execution problems we do at retail. The book even advised them to turn an ear towards the nearby futures pit to give them an extra edge. I'm not going to say they're cheating, but they do take home a lot of money, and its a zero-sum game, if you're wondering where you fit in. Let's just say the market maker is not your friend.

Where that leaves us is that if you trade options at retail, even if you have low commissions like at Interactive Brokers, you still have an uphill struggle to even get in at a decent price, and you still will be paying the bid-ask spread, though of course, 90% of your options will simply expire worthless, so you may not face the second half of that, but you still pay. Where that leaves us is, your options trade is speculating. This is something the big boys never do, and you might speculate on why they never speculate, and its not simply because they do so well using their existing advantages. Even you guys with fancy condors or vega scalping or whatever, and yes, you guys who sell covered calls (which is identical to a selling a naked put, and if you don't know why you shouldn't be trading options).

Having said that, you may just straight want to speculate. In some sense, even going long stocks is speculation. Maybe, like for me, you feel you know an industry well enough to have an edge, and you want to bet that a certain stock is going to go up or go down. And you want to bet that it will happen fairly soon, bearing in mind that a stock moving means that all the numbskulls who drove INTC down will soon change their minds and drive it up. (It doesn't matter if you're right or wrong, what matters for the stock price is what other people think). My conclusion about the best options strategy: buy a put or buy a call, period. Buy one near the money, because they're a lot more liquid (or can simply be exercised) once they're in the money. And pad your timing with at least an extra month, because the theta will kill you in that last month. And remember that you are speculating. I would also watch it carefully and consider cashing in early rather than late as the market unfolds. This may be built-in to the above, but I would also keep away from options priced less than 50 cents, the bid-ask nickel quantization will hurt you.

Those are the conclusions I reached. I had a lot of fun doing it, ran my portolio up 30%, then only 15% up, then settled at 20% up, over 2 months, and, you tell me, I learned something too. Would be happy to learn some more if you can reply.

Right now, I picked up an INTC OCT 17.5 call, because the news on Conroe is going to break in July. I know there are people here who say they are making a lot of money, and I just wonder how you do it, do you create synthetic positions or 2 or 4 options, do you just put in market orders, do you balance your greeks daily? Seems like a long row to hoe but if you're making 6 figures who am I to judge you.

Super excellent post with killer value. Keep it up luh3417! Your post is so insightful that everyone should quote it in full with every reply.

I submit that the discerning reader of this thread will notice that very few of the technical issues I have raised were addressed at all. 75% of the advice is about the psychology of trading. Personally, I think that doesn't cut enough ice when you're staring the market in the face. But then, maybe I just need a coke and a smile and a "have a nice day" button and I can ignore those issues and the people who mention them.
 
uhhh....did you congratulate yourself on your post?


anyways, so....Odd Trader made a good point in that the odds aren't stacked against you by the market makers...tho, they can sometimes be a little speedbump in the road to options success.


The beauty of options trading is the technical aspects and the ability to determine your odds ahead of time. if you can determine your odds and only take trades where your probability of success is greater than 75%...I dont think its gambling at all, unless you consider casino's as being gamblers, although I dont think they think they are.

Just keep at it and dont get discouraged by the big bad market makers and try to determine your risk/reward and probability of success ahead of time....which for purely speculative positions, is definitely not in your favor.
 
Quote from luh3417:

Super excellent post with killer value. Keep it up luh3417! Your post is so insightful that everyone should quote it in full with every reply.

I submit that the discerning reader of this thread will notice that very few of the technical issues I have raised were addressed at all. 75% of the advice is about the psychology of trading. Personally, I think that doesn't cut enough ice when you're staring the market in the face. But then, maybe I just need a coke and a smile and a "have a nice day" button and I can ignore those issues and the people who mention them.

I would submit the "discerning" reader didn't find any technical issues...would you reiterate just the technical issues? I've been told by a number of market makers that today with the cost of comissions as low as they are and the flexibility the retail trader has they have chosen to BE a retail trader and left the floor.
 
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1145363&highlight=system#post1145363

Quote from OddTrader:

I've been suspecting the failing of my trading system, which is based on my effortful study, must be caused by those Maker Makers' great efforts! :D

Q

The preponderance of psychological evidence indicates that experts are made, not born. What is more, the demonstrated ability to turn a child quickly into an expert--in chess, music and a host of other subjects--sets a clear challenge before the schools. Can educators find ways to encourage students to engage in the kind of effortful study that will improve their reading and math skills? Roland G. Fryer, Jr., an economist at Harvard University, has experimented with offering monetary rewards to motivate students in underperforming schools in New York City and Dallas. In one ongoing program in New York, for example, teachers test the students every three weeks and award small amounts--on the order of $10 or $20--to those who score well. The early results have been promising. Instead of perpetually pondering the question, "Why can't Johnny read?" perhaps educators should ask, "Why should there be anything in the world he can't learn to do?"

UQ
 
Quote from luh3417:

My conclusion about the best options strategy: buy a put or buy a call, period. Buy one near the money, because they're a lot more liquid (or can simply be exercised) once they're in the money. And pad your timing with at least an extra month, because the theta will kill you in that last month. And remember that you are speculating. I would also watch it carefully and consider cashing in early rather than late as the market unfolds. This may be built-in to the above, but I would also keep away from options priced less than 50 cents, the bid-ask nickel quantization will hurt you.

What's your average holding time per trade? And average ratio of Return: Risk?
 
Quote from luh3417:

Super excellent post with killer value. Keep it up luh3417! Your post is so insightful that everyone should quote it in full with every reply.

I submit that the discerning reader of this thread will notice that very few of the technical issues I have raised were addressed at all. 75% of the advice is about the psychology of trading. Personally, I think that doesn't cut enough ice when you're staring the market in the face. But then, maybe I just need a coke and a smile and a "have a nice day" button and I can ignore those issues and the people who mention them.

BUSTED with intentionally deceptive multiple aliases:

Wael012000=kissanmakeup
bighitter1=hedgeking
And now...

luh3417= ???
 
As should be evident, I have been doing my homework and reading books on options, and I have been seeking a mentor. As part of this process I asked some very reasonable, detailled questions about how the options market works, and tried to spice them up by pointing out the difficult conclusions they might lead to. But instead of treating my important questions, or refuting them on the basis of hard technical facts or reasoning, the response has largely been, don't confuse me with facts! You are a bad negative person for asking those blasphemous questions!

I feel like much of the response I got was:

We're going to ignore your questions
We don't know the answers to your questions
Actually, we don't want to even allow the implications of your questions
Really, you shouldn't ask questions like that. Nobody should!
As you've already sketched out, the answers would be negative,
which would disturb the wah of our peaceful fantasy trading land.
We're going to put you in a box labelled "guy who asked questions which might lead to negativity if answered"
Then, we're all going to repeatedly quote the full text of the above beat down, in an attempt to stuff you and your heretical questions into that box.
Bad questions! bad! bad!
We're all going to chant "stay positive, stay positive" and jump up and down like Hare Krishnas.
Most importantly, please nobody never ask or think about those questions again!

PS, luh3417 = luh3417. Yes, I quoted my own full text, to ridicule the other repeated full text quotes above.

PPS, I can see that some of you are trying to help, I'll post again summarizing my remaining questions, fwiw.
 
Quote from luh3417:

As should be evident, I have been doing my homework and reading books on options, and I have been seeking a mentor.

Are there any good books on speculating options on either short or long term basis?
 
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