My *COD* - did nothing survive 2008?

S

Saltynuts

I was looking at all sorts of closed end funds. I was looking for how every thing fared in the Black Swan 2008 meltdown.

At first I was like "convertible debt CEFs" - it may have done ok, the debt aspect probably kept them doing a little better. So, so wrong. Cut in half, or more.

Then I was like "so I wonder about preferred stock CEFs, how'd they do?" Cut in half, or more.

*THEN* I was like "ok, well surely investment grade bonds hung in there OK". Nope, cut in half or close to it.

Then, practically crying, I was like "OK, what about short term bond funds??? Surely with their short duration they are somewhat close to cash?!?!?" No, they got torn up.

So then I read about how gold did - it didn't do that great either. It came back pretty strong, but in the main crash it took a big hit as well.

So does nothing other than cold hard cash survive the black-swan events? Looking around, it looks like MAYBE there were some ULTRA-short term bond funds (mutual funds) that did OK in 2008 - didn't really take that big a hit. Of course you get paid nothing as well.

Is that it, along with the actual black-swan funds themselves, which lose money hand over fist 99% of the time? Brutal.
 
Entire market was within hours of complete collapse according to the government. Why are u looking for things that did well.....nothing did well. What is the point of this ?
 
Saltynuts said:
I was looking at all sorts of closed end funds. I was looking for how every thing fared in the Black Swan 2008 meltdown.

At first I was like "convertible debt CEFs" - it may have done ok, the debt aspect probably kept them doing a little better. So, so wrong. Cut in half, or more.

Then I was like "so I wonder about preferred stock CEFs, how'd they do?" Cut in half, or more.

*THEN* I was like "ok, well surely investment grade bonds hung in there OK". Nope, cut in half or close to it.

Then, practically crying, I was like "OK, what about short term bond funds??? Surely with their short duration they are somewhat close to cash?!?!?" No, they got torn up.

So then I read about how gold did - it didn't do that great either. It came back pretty strong, but in the main crash it took a big hit as well.

So does nothing other than cold hard cash survive the black-swan events? Looking around, it looks like MAYBE there were some ULTRA-short term bond funds (mutual funds) that did OK in 2008 - didn't really take that big a hit. Of course you get paid nothing as well.

Is that it, along with the actual black-swan funds themselves, which lose money hand over fist 99% of the time? Brutal.
More...

Contractors and property managers that handled bank REOs did great. Bankruptcy attorneys were busy as well.

Should our elected officials continue to make the right moves economically and broker a deal with North Korea, we may enjoy an extended economic upswing.

In another thread you started a couple of months ago, we talked about specific things that one could do to protect somewhat against a Great Recession type of downturn.
 
THanks maximum! Funny, I was just thinking about that thread! I will have to revisit it. Just found it amazing that not only were stock funds cut in half (or more) in 2008, so were tons of bond funds - even if they were investment quality and short duration!
 
Saltynuts said:
THanks maximum! Funny, I was just thinking about that thread! I will have to revisit it. Just found it amazing that not only were stock funds cut in half (or more) in 2008, so were tons of bond funds - even if they were investment quality and short duration!
More...
not surprising

funds if they make losses in one asset class book profits in others to cover their losses so everything gets eventually hit.
 
It was a credit crunch... so basically everyone was more or less liquidating... that means at that time there's not much going up.

It meant that banks were tight with lending, and investors were pulling money of the table. So funds get smaller, both because less client money... and also less credit facility. Everything goes pearshaped then... everybody runs for the door. Funds rely on money... less money = sell assets.

If a panic isn't really credit related, I guess you can still expect bond funds to do well straight through it... depending on current levels of interest rates.
 
Saltynuts said:
THanks maximum! Funny, I was just thinking about that thread! I will have to revisit it. Just found it amazing that not only were stock funds cut in half (or more) in 2008, so were tons of bond funds - even if they were investment quality and short duration!
More...

Do you own a house? Do you own a car? Do you own something expensive? Are you married?
What does all this have in common? Insurance. If fire took your material items and your life, does someone collect the funds for having the insurance?

Do you think owning stocks or bonds have ways to insure them? Do you think everyone lost in 2008?
 
Handle123 said:
Do you own a house? Do you own a car? Do you own something expensive? Are you married?
What does all this have in common? Insurance. If fire took your material items and your life, does someone collect the funds for having the insurance?

Do you think owning stocks or bonds have ways to insure them? Do you think everyone lost in 2008?
More...


dude, all covered!
 
Saltynuts said:
I was looking at all sorts of closed end funds. I was looking for how every thing fared in the Black Swan 2008 meltdown.

At first I was like "convertible debt CEFs" - it may have done ok, the debt aspect probably kept them doing a little better. So, so wrong. Cut in half, or more.

Then I was like "so I wonder about preferred stock CEFs, how'd they do?" Cut in half, or more.

*THEN* I was like "ok, well surely investment grade bonds hung in there OK". Nope, cut in half or close to it.

Then, practically crying, I was like "OK, what about short term bond funds??? Surely with their short duration they are somewhat close to cash?!?!?" No, they got torn up.

So then I read about how gold did - it didn't do that great either. It came back pretty strong, but in the main crash it took a big hit as well.

So does nothing other than cold hard cash survive the black-swan events? Looking around, it looks like MAYBE there were some ULTRA-short term bond funds (mutual funds) that did OK in 2008 - didn't really take that big a hit. Of course you get paid nothing as well.

Is that it, along with the actual black-swan funds themselves, which lose money hand over fist 99% of the time? Brutal.
More...

Managed futures did very well in 2008. Of course they may not in the next black swan event.

Insurance is rarely free.

GAT
 
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