My China Thesis Entitled... The Biggest Lie Ever Told

OMG, have you lived in Asia? Do you have any clue at all what you are talking about? Apparently not. How about you first work on your English before you try to school others. CCP can do anything it pleases, adjust reserve rates, prime rates, inject money, even transfer money across different state owned entities if need be. You have zero understanding how China works. How about you get your lazy butt over to HK and I treat you for beers and tell you how economics work here. Schmuck.

Edit: and please stop jumping all over the place focus on a single issue else you come across simply as someone who read a few articles and reports and has very little in terms of making his own case. Your entire premise on the salary issue is flawed. Yes labor intensive jobs have started moving to Thailand and Pakistan and Bangladesh over the past years towards Africa even. But China is hiring engineers and deep learning researchers, medical professionals in record numbers. In short, China is moving up the sophistication ladder in almost every industrial sector. The salary paid for a data researcher is a fraction of the cost one has to pay in the US or other western nations while the skill and educational level is equal in those higher sophistication jobs. But that is just an aside as you chose to shift topics. The main topic here set out by yourself, is debt levels of corporate entities. And I claim you do not understand how corporate finance works in China.

Are you comparing Japan's Economy to China Economy ? Haha

Japan Economy is zombie but very well diversified and the multinationals of Japan are export powerhouses... China's Economy is the printing press and cheap labour to US, but now multinationals are moving away... China is no longer the cheapest labour, the factory workers earn double since 2010 due to very high inflation in country, employers were forced to increase salaries ( 500 US a month average salary now ), the days of being the cheapest labour are done, have been done... But to keep getting international business, companies have been operating at steep loses and using business loans as a piggy bank, hoping for a miracle that the debt disappears ... Like Evergrande, the biggest Real Estate Builder in China, has equivalent to 108 Billion US in debt, how can you suck so badly at business that you rack up this much debt without doing any acquisitions ?

Read into the amount of companies leaving China, 3D Printing and Automation is destroying them... Look at chart in page 1 I posted, showing account deficit... Why are state owned firms getting loans in International Markets, in US Dollars, if they can keep printing forever like you say ? Ever thought that China is so low on US Dollars, they are using there SOEs to obtain loans in US Dollars, swap them once in, to keep Reserves above the minimum of 1.5 Trillion ? What happens when they start defaulting on US Issued Debt like you will see in Q4 2019 and in 2020 ? Foreign investors flee bond markets, US Issued debt stops completely, then game over

Who else wants to get schooled ? Next!
 
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Bollocks, China Huarong is a bad asset bank that was exactly designed for that purpose in the precise same manner as when Japan set up a bad asset bank to hold defaulting or close to defaulting loan portfolios. Also this specific company was riddled with corruption and hence using it as a generalization is total nonsense.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-1.4tn-distressed-debt-pool-draws-global-buyers2

The slowdown is deteriorating asset managers' ability to clear these debts off banks' books. One of these companies, China Huarong Asset Management, suffered a 90% drop in net profit last year.

On the surface, Chinese banks appear to be healthy with capital ratios of more than 10%. The rate of nonperforming loans, however, has risen to 10% to 20% at some small banks, which could tear a hole in country's financial system.
 
I detailed why China's economy is in disaster, gave overview of there problems

Went Super Saiyan since Saturday and completed it... This was a response to Michael Pettis, who believes China will manoeuvre a lost decade like Japan did, but I counter argued with this Thesis. I shall send him the thesis by email and wait for his counter

If anyone has good counter points, please participate!
You should reread the thread on MMT.

No worry, MMT to the rescue. :D:D:D
 
Just curious, how do the share-bikes companies make money? What is their business model?

Like the rest of the cpp economy... Debt then bankruptcy!

There was a rush of bike sharing start ups years ago, when the VC seen was on fire in Shenzhen. They had FOMO and just dumped money into them, after a while they all went bust, VC's got burned, and it led to the creation of Bike Cemeteries
 
Just curious, how do the share-bikes companies make money? What is their business model?


Mobike equates each bike produced to a customer. Hence the 1.2 million Mobikes littering the streets of Shanghai.
 
Bike sharing in HK works for a few years now. Last I checked HK is part of China. Can't speak for mainland cities though re bike sharing but your generalizations make little to no sense. I think it's a stupid business model but it somewhat survived in HK till now, not thriving but nowhere here are bikes dumped anywhere.

So, now you talk bikes? Care to respond to those who made the effort to respond to your claims or are you just here to agitate and accuse?



Like the rest of the cpp economy... Debt then bankruptcy!

There was a rush of bike sharing start ups years ago, when the VC seen was on fire in Shenzhen. They had FOMO and just dumped money into them, after a while they all went bust, VC's got burned, and it led to the creation of Bike Cemeteries
 
Just curious, how do the share-bikes companies make money? What is their business model?


It seems they invest the money customers pay as a deposit when they register for the service, I suspect leverage it quite a bit. Saw on the english language Shenzhen newspaper customers were struggling to get the funds back from some operators.
Investors are huge companies, from memory Aliaba and Tencent invested large amounts in rival bike sharing companies, there must be more to the business model than investing teh deposit, I never tried the bikes but heard the rental is quite cheap, not sure how many rentals are needed to cover the costs of 1 bike. One must know in China at least in tier 1 cities it is quite difficult to get a car and there are lots of restrictions on 2 wheelers, so there is much demand for bikes although the traffic there is quite unsafe for bicycles, and more generally very unfriendly.
An article from last year (I just had a quick look so far, not sure how interesting).

https://www.scmp.com/tech/enterpris...-beating-mobike-and-ofo-chinas-smaller-cities
 
He has been saying on multiple occasions, china will have a soft landing... They will go stagnate for a decade, and bounce back. He is a great mind for sure, deep thinker but is view doesn't match the numbers

Corporate debt in china is equivalent to 27 Trillion US, on paper... With Shadow Banking being so prevalent there, true numbers could easily be 35 Trillion US. On paper, 70 % of debt created in the world since 08 has come from China's corporate sector, there overall debt increased 650 % ( on paper ) since 08... Madness happened for the past 10 years. There is no way any form of soft landing is ever taking place, they are already in a deep recession and not even close to the bottom... Cross guarantees on each other's debt is crushing them at the moment
As a Chinese descendant who has traveled between China and the US for the past decade and half, constantly finding and predicting the fall of China, I finally gave up in 2016 and came back to the US. Yet, China is still standing there and with all my friends richer. It is me who is struggling financially......
 
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