My Calendar Journal

DD2018 said:
How often are you delta-hedging? Are you using any particular methodology?
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For these types of calendars because I expect to the back month vol to increase by a significant amount, I tend to let my deltas run. Depending on the underlying's volatility will determine what my hedging frequency is.
 
The movement of the underlying will affect the calendar price a lot more than the IV changes though. This is almost as much of a directional bet on the underlying if you don't delta-hedge. If JPM price had fallen even a few dollars, you'd have lost money on that trade.

I'm also not sure why you're using such a tight time spread. Any reasoning behind that?
 
DD2018 said:
The movement of the underlying will affect the calendar price a lot more than the IV changes though. This is almost as much of a directional bet on the underlying if you don't delta-hedge. If JPM price had fallen even a few dollars, you'd have lost money on that trade.

I'm also not sure why you're using such a tight time spread. Any reasoning behind that?
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No. In this case as long as my back month vega stays higher than my delta how can this be a directional bet? Deltas do not accumulate quickly on a calendar. Yes if JPM fell on Friday this would have been a very small loser, but thats part of the game.... Im using a tight time spread because for earnings plays the gains on vega will be close to idnetical throught the term structure. So by doing a tight time spread I reduce my directional assumption
 
Got it, thanks for explaining. I'm fairly new to this so maybe I didn't use the correct terminology. What I meant by directional was that you're betting the underlying to stay still or go up (since you have positive delta). Directional bet wasn't the right way to say it.

Did you see an exploitable discrepancy in IV when you opened the trade? I would have thought any increase to IV due to anticipation of earnings for the July 13th exp would have already been priced in?
 
I see what you are saying. Yes on friday I was hoping for JPM to move up, so you are right I was directional. If I had flattened my deltas(which I would not have done since it was the last day for the calendar) then I would have been unbiased to direction.

The earnings event is always priced in. But how big the event will be changes daily. Lets say NFLX earnings is next week. Today, the move priced in might be 5% and the move tomorrow might be 8% and then the next day 7%.
 
Got it, very helpful. You're hoping that IV is underpriced and will go up, and still get to collect the theta premium while you wait.
 
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