My Calendar Journal

TheBigShort said:
Hey everyone here is a great trade I have found.

UPS 115P JUNE 29/JULY 27. For 1.54.

Reason

FDX has there earnings out tn so it makes sense for the IV in front month of UPS to go up. However It has the same vol as the earnings next month. Tomorrow we should see UPS front JUNE 29 go from 24% vol to 18% while the back month stays high or even possibly increases. The vega gains here should out weigh our gamma losses. UPS is unlikely to gap tomorrow so I will be taking it off first thing in the morning.

@Secret Santa I have added more vega in this trade. Wish me luck
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I considered this same trade (but with the mothly)....opted against it because the risks of a big beat or miss here seemed to outweigh the premium you could take on this one.
 
beerntrading said:
I considered this same trade (but with the mothly)....opted against it because the risks of a big beat or miss here seemed to outweigh the premium you could take on this one.
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Hey Beer,
Even if FDX does have a big beat/miss that would actually increase the earnings expiration of UPS even more ( UPS would most likely follow suit and therefore vol needs to increase). So I think it's a win win. Anyways we shall see tomorrow :D
 
Closed UPS for 1.57 (scratch) Vol came in but spread widened and I got and could not get a fill above 1.60.

No calendar trades today working on some spread sheets to help me find trading ideas quicker
 
FLT July/Aug 220 P for 3.95. Filled

Current positions.

JPM 109 June29/July13 for .55
GS 230 June29/July6 for .63
IBM 145 June29/July6 for .26
MPC 75 July20/27 for .23
VIAB July 27/Aug 17 30 P for .34.
FB July27/Aug 17 205P for 1.80
FLT July/Aug 220 P for 3.95
 
Placed a trade on Visa today. Bot the July 20 sold July 6. Earnings is being priced in for the July 27 cycle, yet every estimator I have seen is for July 18 or 19. Good risk reward here.

V calendar JULY 6/20 for 1.16
We should see the back month Jump 5% on confirmation.
 
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