2k per year - not too shabby if PAL can do even half of what the devs say it can. After my first successful year, I ought to check it out.
My back-testing is too good to be true. What am I missing?
- Thread starter TradeSparrow
- Start date
Actually, I think, it is 2k per 2 years.
I got very good results for CBOT Corn although not enough long patterns. I am running the search with different R:R values to see how the pattern population distribution changes, long versus short.
I think I will start trading grains next week.
Quote from intradaybill:
R:R = Risk:Reward or on this case equivalent to Profit target : stop-loss
I don't know how it recognizes patterns but it works well for sure. There are some articles in their website that describe the program operation you can take a look at. I have attached a pic from the search for R:R = 8:8, profit factor > 1, Trades per pattern > 30. It would also be interesting to look for R:R 5:10, 8:16, etc. Now, since all those patterns are variations of one another you would treat them all as one system. Normally, you would have the program search for patterns in a subset of the data set and then forward test to eliminate data mining bias.
P is win rate, PF is profit factor, CL is max consecutive losers
Very impressive analysis. Can you repeat the analysis for energy futures in the other thread?
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Trade sparrow.
Spectacular sheet[paper] results???????;
let me comment instead ,on number 1 & number 6.
Number 1/ema, is a good place to start & camp;
dont use the histogram much myself but ema, multiple ma[which is mostly what a MACD is], IS quite helpful .
So good work on that number 1/ema & multiple mas;
not that 2003[or any one year means much.................................]
While i may not usually buy @ historic highs[hopefully I am in already,LOL] or sell lowest of lows[historic]. Number 1 of yours is much likely to be more helpful than number 6.
Ever looked @ many, many long term charts???????Lower lows are classic bear trend..............................................
Higher highs are classic upTrend;
so study ALL the data years, months, days, years, decades ,
ema, multiple ma.....................................................................
Frankly what i wrote can include some high probabilities of making money [ cash markets]but leverage changes everything, in any market. Good points on number 1 -EMA.............................
Moving averages tell many things, including ;
underline or overline price.
I was analyzing crude over the weekend. I will post some results in the energy futures section. Here are results for Corn:
target stop #patterns long/short
5 5 104 4/100
8 8 227 8/219
10 10 204 10/194
15 15 98 20/78
20 20 99 11/80
30 30 104 1/103
It appears that around 15 to 20 points is the optimum target/stop range. Here is a pic of the results for 20 target and stop:
What does this mean and why doing this analysis? It means that any long position trades outside of the range 10 - 20 points for target stop have basically very low probabiity of win and at the same time these results show that this market is better suited for short only systems for position trading despite the occassional rallies. The sample of trades is large enough to support these conclusions
Thanks for the advice. I agree that all-time highs and lows are much less useful. However, zooming out on a daily chart so I can see the major highs and lows is very helpful, at least for me.
And of course, EMAs rock.
Cheers. Thanks everyone! This thread has given me some confidence that I am not doing something horribly, blatantly wrong. Maybe I still am, but we'll see.
As for forward testing in Wheat, between 12/10 and today, I have $1500 at my take-profit level, but I'm still bearish, so I am still short. 15% in one week is not half-bad, I'd say.
If I make it big, maybe I'll travel around a bit and buy you all drinks.
Quote from TradeSparrow:
Thanks for the advice. I agree that all-time highs and lows are much less useful. However, zooming out on a daily chart so I can see the major highs and lows is very helpful, at least for me.
And of course, EMAs rock.
Cheers. Thanks everyone! This thread has given me some confidence that I am not doing something horribly, blatantly wrong. Maybe I still am, but we'll see.
As for forward testing in Wheat, between 12/10 and today, I have $1500 at my take-profit level, but I'm still bearish, so I am still short. 15% in one week is not half-bad, I'd say.
If I make it big, maybe I'll travel around a bit and buy you all drinks.
Congrats. Good to see some success.