My approach to selling puts.

today is 3.3x - but it has hit 7x at the peak.

Ah. That makes sense. One day this will bite you in the ass. Hopefully it won’t blow you out or you will be able to get out early.

congrats on your performance however. Its equally important to manage your risk as it is to not be a pussy when the opportunity is strong and last four quarters was the best vol selling period in the last 12 years.
 
What happens if you get assigned say 2x? Will you just wire more cash into account and hold the assignment
Keep in mind that the 3.3x is spread over different maturities, but I would close options if I was facing assignment in excess of what I have. iBKR's algo would do that for you if you don't.
 
Ah. That makes sense. One day this will bite you in the ass. Hopefully it won’t blow you out or you will be able to get out early.

congrats on your performance however. Its equally important to manage your risk as it is to not be a pussy when the opportunity is strong and last four quarters was the best vol selling period in the last 12 years.

I agree. What would you do if you were in my shoes for the next 12 months?

Net liq. Value is 13.6m today.
 
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That is correct with a slight difference. I did not lose money since February when the longs were flat or lost money.


I think you said you are picking mostly illiquid options to sell puts on...might be why you might be getting assigned at a higher rate as long put holders finding it hard to get value for the put with wide b/a spread and making more money exercising.
 
So this means you think the market will rebound? Good for my outright longs then.

Sorry to give you the bad news, ON, but selling puts is being long the market. His statement essentially works out to "if you're long the market, you're going to get punished."
 
Sorry to give you the bad news, ON, but selling puts is being long the market. His statement essentially works out to "if you're long the market, you're going to get punished."

Ahhh. Ohh well, was hoping for some positivism in the doom-and-gloom that is pervading the markets these past few months.
 
Sorry to give you the bad news, ON, but selling puts is being long the market. His statement essentially works out to "if you're long the market, you're going to get punished."
I am not sure this is correct. If I want to go long, I buy the underlying. Selling puts is a bet on stagnation in my view (neither long nor short).
 
I have been receiving a fair bit of questions since posting this 12 months performance chart earlier and decided to do a post instead of replying individually to all questions.

Motivation: I have learned a fair bit here and have not contributed much, so this is a small payback sort of speak.
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My approach (mine and only mine, do your own homework to find something that suits you):
1) I sell exclusively naked puts that I call TCSPs, short for Their Cash Secured Puts. In other words, I underwrite credit insurance (selling puts, earning premium) against cash rich balance sheets. It is not me, the underwriter/guarantor/investor who needs to be cash rich to do TCSPs but the borrower/investee that does. I hope this makes sense, this is key to what I do.
2) I could not care less about the vix, greeks, IV, wings, spreads, boxes, rollover or any other jargon relating to options. Let alone mean reversion, technical analysis or anything else around crowd behaviour. I sell puts for a yield premia that compensates the balance sheet risk I am facing - I never ever look at anything else, and particularly not the greeks. I don't even know what they mean actually.
3) My big wins are when a defensive cash rich balance sheet with an option chain is facing an event of some sort that the market does not understand. I spend my days reading SEC fillings so I have an edge here.
4) I am getting assigned more since february and never rush to dump the shares. I know them inside out and am comfortable holding for a few weeks until the market turns. But I am a fixed income investor (yield chaser) and do not speculate on equity. Never do wheels or the likes. (I tell the wife that I trade like Jay Leno who has famously never sold a car, only bought many). I never close before expiry.
5) I love highly illiquid options and tend to move markets. I do my homework before entering the trade and never exit before expiry (same as buying illiquid bonds). I can run a highly concentrated profolio as well, with 1 option >70% of my risk.
6) 100% US mid-caps and I most often act as liquidity provider.
7)I do not care at all about algos, automation, writing code, monte-carlo simulations, etc... just yield and balance sheets.
8) I do not trade often, but when I do I trade big tickets. I spend most days reading fillings instead of trading.
9) The only tools I use are the followings: TWS for order entry, Risk Navigator for assignment modelling, BAMSEC for fillings, MS excel for everything else. I only trade with fully visible limit orders on the ask. I never look at an option charts, only the underlying's at rare occasions when I am bored.
10) I do this full time. I do not follow any other investors on twitter, etc, and stick to my own style instead of learning from other. I have done mistakes, never huge ones, and keep improving my approach all the time.

I hope this helps.


Could you clarify nr. 3? Are you looking for special events when selling vol or is it a pure IV percentile/premium bet? Since you mentioned you assess events that the market got wrong by looking through SEC fillings I assume the former(?), or do you look through the sec fillings to look at their financial health/balance sheet only? Do you hold after the event has passed or do you sell after the IV Crush?
 
I'm not as leveraged like you, but I do something that works similar concerning due diligence/value/balance sheet. I steal from someone else!! The Royce Family of Funds...RMT, RVT. They will do many things that you do. I usually will wait for a correction, then buy individual stocks from their funds. I'll then do covered calls (just me).

You have to be thick skinned to post here...If there is a hole, people will find it. You ready...A new Covid variant starts hitting and killing men and women in their 30s and 40s. Covid-19 hit more of the elderly/over weigh (in general). The Spanish Flu hit (killed) the young and healthy. Could they handle the claims? Do these companies cover life, property/casualty, and reinsurance?? If it's just life, you may want to dial back a bit...
 
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