Here are my picks. Please share your picks if you like and give feedback on my picks and those of others. Enjoy.
My long pick is SOHU. ($21.34 6/15/05) What currently is so exciting about SOHU is that its search engine SOGOU.COM has increased its traffic by 400% over the last few months and is now neck and neck with Yahoo's chinese offering as the #3 search engine in china. Also SOHU owns 3 other web properties each of which is in the top 30 of chinese websites based on traffic data by Alexa.com. SOHU is also the #2 web portal in China. One out of every 20 internet users on planet visits one of SOHU's sites. This provides lots of traffic for its quickly growing search engine. The amazing thing is that you get all of this for only $750 million. In comparison, ASKJ has a market cap around $2 billion with far less traffic. In my mind SOHU's dominant position in the fastest growing internet market should be worth at least ASKJ's valuation. That would be a tripple. Technically, SOHU just broke out from a multi-month base and its moving averages have just recently turned up. A few more points and it will be hitting 52wk high lists. The PE is very low for an internet stock and SOHU beat earnings for the last quarter which broke a string of 3 dissapointing quarters. Fundamentals and chart both turning up after a 12 month slumber. Target $30-$50.
My short pick is FTO. ($55.85 pre-split 6/15/05). FTO is a very small independent oil refiner. It operates 2 small refineries and has few growth prospects. It trades at 13 times earnings when refining stocks have historically traded at 5-7 times peak earnings. Refining margins are most likely at a peak so FTO should probably be trading at the $35 pre-split that it was at just a few months ago. VLO recently bought out PCO for a 10 pe. So FTO is trading at a 30% premium to that take out price which many analysts questioned as being too expensive. Margins can only fall for FTO from here. If oil prices fall the sector will likely take a big hit. And unlike exploration companies that own oil and gas fields, FTO will not necessarily benefit from further increases in the price of oil. If there is an oil shock a global recession would likely kill refining margins because of less demand for diesel/gasonline/jet fuels ect. FTO may be the loser regardless of which way crude goes from here. Wind fall profits from sour margins have been contracting in the last several months so it seems that fundamentals may have peaked last quarter. The stock is in blow off phase now. Target $38-$42 pre-split.
Disclosure, i have these 2 positions.
My long pick is SOHU. ($21.34 6/15/05) What currently is so exciting about SOHU is that its search engine SOGOU.COM has increased its traffic by 400% over the last few months and is now neck and neck with Yahoo's chinese offering as the #3 search engine in china. Also SOHU owns 3 other web properties each of which is in the top 30 of chinese websites based on traffic data by Alexa.com. SOHU is also the #2 web portal in China. One out of every 20 internet users on planet visits one of SOHU's sites. This provides lots of traffic for its quickly growing search engine. The amazing thing is that you get all of this for only $750 million. In comparison, ASKJ has a market cap around $2 billion with far less traffic. In my mind SOHU's dominant position in the fastest growing internet market should be worth at least ASKJ's valuation. That would be a tripple. Technically, SOHU just broke out from a multi-month base and its moving averages have just recently turned up. A few more points and it will be hitting 52wk high lists. The PE is very low for an internet stock and SOHU beat earnings for the last quarter which broke a string of 3 dissapointing quarters. Fundamentals and chart both turning up after a 12 month slumber. Target $30-$50.
My short pick is FTO. ($55.85 pre-split 6/15/05). FTO is a very small independent oil refiner. It operates 2 small refineries and has few growth prospects. It trades at 13 times earnings when refining stocks have historically traded at 5-7 times peak earnings. Refining margins are most likely at a peak so FTO should probably be trading at the $35 pre-split that it was at just a few months ago. VLO recently bought out PCO for a 10 pe. So FTO is trading at a 30% premium to that take out price which many analysts questioned as being too expensive. Margins can only fall for FTO from here. If oil prices fall the sector will likely take a big hit. And unlike exploration companies that own oil and gas fields, FTO will not necessarily benefit from further increases in the price of oil. If there is an oil shock a global recession would likely kill refining margins because of less demand for diesel/gasonline/jet fuels ect. FTO may be the loser regardless of which way crude goes from here. Wind fall profits from sour margins have been contracting in the last several months so it seems that fundamentals may have peaked last quarter. The stock is in blow off phase now. Target $38-$42 pre-split.
Disclosure, i have these 2 positions.