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Murrica's Outlook: Nasdaq & Russell E-mini's
- Thread starter murrica
- Start date
Quote from murrica:
We are near critical levels on /NKD: The 13175-13200 range (in the next 24 hours) should offer decent support, if we get down there.
This is not trading advice nor a trading recommendation. You are responsible for your own trading decisions and risk management.
Good trading to all.
I apologize for not seeing the parallel support, and therefore for being off by 6 ticks. Was looking for a touch to 13200; we hit 13230 instead.
Looking at resistance coming up just beyond 13800 in the coming days for the obvious falling wedge.
Quote from murrica:
I apologize for not seeing the parallel support, and therefore for being off by 6 ticks. Was looking for a touch to 13200; we hit 13230 instead.
Looking at resistance coming up just beyond 13800 in the coming days for the obvious falling wedge.
Well, we reached a high of 13790 on /NKD, and did not clear 13800 before heading down from below resistance.
For the morning session coming up in Japan, watch ~13100 - 13110 and ~13140 - 13155, as both are clear support levels for /NKD.
Well, my first post in this thread was August 5, 2013. I was bearish at that point.
Analysis != Trade Management Strategy != Being a good trader
Looking at /ES daily, we are likely at or near a low.. plus with /NKD near the bottom of the super clean bullish/(bearish) falling wedge, my bias is to look for long entries in the coming days. Risk clearly defined by support levels per analysis.
This is not trading advice, it is for info purposes only.
Good trading to all.
Analysis != Trade Management Strategy != Being a good trader
Looking at /ES daily, we are likely at or near a low.. plus with /NKD near the bottom of the super clean bullish/(bearish) falling wedge, my bias is to look for long entries in the coming days. Risk clearly defined by support levels per analysis.
This is not trading advice, it is for info purposes only.
Good trading to all.
Quote from murrica:
Well, my first post in this thread was August 5, 2013. I was bearish at that point.
Analysis != Trade Management Strategy != Being a good trader
Looking at /ES daily, we are likely at or near a low.. plus with /NKD near the bottom of the super clean bullish/(bearish) falling wedge, my bias is to look for long entries in the coming days. Risk clearly defined by support levels per analysis.
This is not trading advice, it is for info purposes only.
Good trading to all.
For /NKD, I would widen things up to 13,000 as a key psychological support level. /NKD has been a very clean, very accurate beast at the key support levels these past few months, yet I am still open to possible resumption of shakeout games at these levels.. thus widening risk to 13,000 for the bull case might be wise here. Only saying because descending support is actually slightly above 13,000 assuming we get there Sunday/Monday CST.
Quote from murrica:
For /NKD, I would widen things up to 13,000 as a key psychological support level. /NKD has been a very clean, very accurate beast at the key support levels these past few months, yet I am still open to possible resumption of shakeout games at these levels.. thus widening risk to 13,000 for the bull case might be wise here. Only saying because descending support is actually slightly above 13,000 assuming we get there Sunday/Monday CST.
The accurate NKD beast action continues. The falling wedge did lead to a nice uptrend for Japan and US markets. We never tested 13,000 and took off right from when I made the call. I need to improve translating the analysis into a workable strategy.
A few days ago, NKD did a perfect retest of the breakdown level (resistance) from a number of weeks ago. However, I was not watching for it. This type of analysis technique is part of my toolkit, though. I am too focused on billing time for my programming consultancy and was slacking and missed it.
Having said that, resistance is clearly defined for the N225 index multi-year chart, and also for what is somewhat of a stealth-resistance level on the Nasdaq e-mini futures (NQ). If I remember to do so, I will post here if and when we get there.
This is not trading advice, and is for info purposes only.
Good trading to all.
Currently scoping out some short and long term resistances on various instruments. One or some of these resistance areas might be 'the big turn', given that the ascription of a controlled reversal to obvious linear resistance holds true.
Of note on the immediate front:
- Nasdaq 100 mini futures resistance: primary range 3280.0 - 3285.0, secondary range 3295.0 - 3305.0.
- Russell 2000 mini futures resistance: primary range 1092.5 - 1095.0, secondary range 1097.5 - 1102.5.
- S&P MidCap 400 Index multi-decade resistance: ~1275 - 1285.
Longer term and/or broader range (ranges will adjust higher going forward in time):
- Dow 30 index multi-decade resistance: ~16000 - 16250.
- Nasdaq 100 index multi-year resistance: ~3300 - 3375.
Further out, assuming we bubble onward & upward (will also adjust higher for later dates):
- Russell 2000 index multi-decade resistance: ~1150.
There are certainly others; these are simply casual observations, and the numbers/ranges denoted with '~' were eyeballed.
Strategy is to establish short positions from here to resistance, first and foremost with the "Nasdaq && Russell E-mini's" primary resistance levels. Risk is clearly defined at these levels. If the primary and secondary levels fail to hold, will refine the longer term targets and drill down further beyond just the broad indexes.
Trade management entails observation of price activity around these resistance areas to ascertain, on a discretionary basis, whether it seems likely that a reversal will occur accurately. Current price activity seems favorable for NQ to reverse slightly above 3280 (possibly tomorrow or overnight), but this can change in real-time, of course (nature of trading, and all that jazz). Also open to the possibility of today's print of 3276.5 being a swing top, as we are near the top of a rising wedge for NQ intraday.
Generally speaking, after researching the long term charts, there seems to be very little justification in opening new long positions directly below any of these levels, particularly if unbreached. R:R heavily favors new short positions. Knowing when to stay in cash (or long, ugh) if bears are proven wrong in the short term is the bearish piker/retail trader's game here.
Time horizon is now (this week, or possibly beginning of next), or in the coming weeks/months. Yes, this is a broad stroke, and R:R discussion is pertinent to longer term time horizons. However, initial trade management on a daytrading basis could be of benefit, used in conjunction with specific resistance zones noted above.
Disclaimer: I am not in any way responsible for your trading decisions; this is not trading advice, and is for informational purposes only.
Good trading to all.
Of note on the immediate front:
- Nasdaq 100 mini futures resistance: primary range 3280.0 - 3285.0, secondary range 3295.0 - 3305.0.
- Russell 2000 mini futures resistance: primary range 1092.5 - 1095.0, secondary range 1097.5 - 1102.5.
- S&P MidCap 400 Index multi-decade resistance: ~1275 - 1285.
Longer term and/or broader range (ranges will adjust higher going forward in time):
- Dow 30 index multi-decade resistance: ~16000 - 16250.
- Nasdaq 100 index multi-year resistance: ~3300 - 3375.
Further out, assuming we bubble onward & upward (will also adjust higher for later dates):
- Russell 2000 index multi-decade resistance: ~1150.
There are certainly others; these are simply casual observations, and the numbers/ranges denoted with '~' were eyeballed.
Strategy is to establish short positions from here to resistance, first and foremost with the "Nasdaq && Russell E-mini's" primary resistance levels. Risk is clearly defined at these levels. If the primary and secondary levels fail to hold, will refine the longer term targets and drill down further beyond just the broad indexes.
Trade management entails observation of price activity around these resistance areas to ascertain, on a discretionary basis, whether it seems likely that a reversal will occur accurately. Current price activity seems favorable for NQ to reverse slightly above 3280 (possibly tomorrow or overnight), but this can change in real-time, of course (nature of trading, and all that jazz). Also open to the possibility of today's print of 3276.5 being a swing top, as we are near the top of a rising wedge for NQ intraday.
Generally speaking, after researching the long term charts, there seems to be very little justification in opening new long positions directly below any of these levels, particularly if unbreached. R:R heavily favors new short positions. Knowing when to stay in cash (or long, ugh) if bears are proven wrong in the short term is the bearish piker/retail trader's game here.
Time horizon is now (this week, or possibly beginning of next), or in the coming weeks/months. Yes, this is a broad stroke, and R:R discussion is pertinent to longer term time horizons. However, initial trade management on a daytrading basis could be of benefit, used in conjunction with specific resistance zones noted above.
Disclaimer: I am not in any way responsible for your trading decisions; this is not trading advice, and is for informational purposes only.
Good trading to all.
The noted short term resistances were all busted in the past 24 hours.
Took a few shots (last night and today) and took a few stops. Live to fight another day.
To me, calling long or short is a *far distant* second to position size and stop loss management. So, in that sense I am thankful to have the experience to adhere to reasonably sound risk management.
Took a few shots (last night and today) and took a few stops. Live to fight another day.
To me, calling long or short is a *far distant* second to position size and stop loss management. So, in that sense I am thankful to have the experience to adhere to reasonably sound risk management.
Next week, watching a few upper channel lines on ES and SPX. Curious to see if the bulls get tired and/or greedy.
The first, lower resistance was hit on ES today at the high, and the next is not far above it. Will be watching early in the week to see how the price action shapes up.. we should know how strong this move is by early/mid next week.
Trendlines work until they don't, like anything else. But when they work, they really work (e.g. 666 SPX low in 2009, nasdaq break in late 2002, all indexes swing down channel breaking up in early 2009 after the 666 SPX low, 30 year break down this spring from rising wedge, etc, etc, etc). In and of themselves, they are not predictive, but, when used correctly, they often can be a great guideline to determine when/where a major turn or break is to occur.
The first, lower resistance was hit on ES today at the high, and the next is not far above it. Will be watching early in the week to see how the price action shapes up.. we should know how strong this move is by early/mid next week.
Trendlines work until they don't, like anything else. But when they work, they really work (e.g. 666 SPX low in 2009, nasdaq break in late 2002, all indexes swing down channel breaking up in early 2009 after the 666 SPX low, 30 year break down this spring from rising wedge, etc, etc, etc). In and of themselves, they are not predictive, but, when used correctly, they often can be a great guideline to determine when/where a major turn or break is to occur.