barrons this weekend had a writeup about how much cash msft has and the possibility of them somehow returning the money to shareholders.
Summary of Barron's article.
Possible cash distribution plans:
- payout dividend of 60 cents/shr raising yield to 2.2%.
- Dutch-auction tender for 1 billion shares at $30. This alone would increase EPS by about 5%.
- Company says "only a matter of time before it embarks on a distribution strategy."
- will have over $100B in cash by end of decade if no increase in distribution to shareholders.
- company admits potential EU fine shouldn't be an obstacle to returning cash (to shareholders).
- some believe Gates is behind company's desire to hoard cash.
- "Microsoft requires minimal capital expenditures to grow because their principal costs - R&D and marketing - are expensed. (Therefore), all of Microsoft's earnings are discretionary, distributable cash flow."
- earnings understate the profitability of core software business due to losses from several divisions including XBOX.
- MSFT attractive at 18 to 19 times free cash flow.
- "Sooner or later, Microsoft will find a way to get more cash into shareholder's hands. When that happens, the stock is apt to be appreciably higher."