MrMarket port
- Thread starter Qarel
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Here is the tab:STOCK DATE IN PAID NOW
PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 21.00 -15.5%
AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 31.49 -9.3%
CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 20.81 -3.2%
MDC 7/10/2002 46.59 53.25 14.3%
GRMN 5/23/2003 45.91 45.20 -1.5%
WRLD 6/3/2003 14.43 15.08 4.5%
COH 6/9/2003 51.49 58.68 14.0%
WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.48 -11.2%
AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 38.94 -5.0%
NARA 7/25/2003 18.91 18.98 0.4%
DKS 7/29/2003 39.99 36.77 -8.1%
HELE 9/2/2003 24.13 25.25 4.6%
PRX 9/18/2003 72.40 71.57 -1.1%
This is 13 purchases. He has closed out 32 purchases.
As you can see from above post stating that 80 trades have been cycled, this must mean 32x 2 = 64 plus 13 equals about 80.
Somehow this is equated with turning capital over 6 times. 6 compoundings of 14,000 dollars at 15% profit. The record can be constructed from the web site.
If you divide a number like 14, the number of streams into 32 completed trades, the portfolio keeper finds that it apparently goes 6 times. Some people would get just over two.
The 13 purchases currently cycling have some losses. This eats into the next profit cycle quite a ways as you can read above. If you average the hold period, you can determine that a turn over cycle presently is long. The most likely candidates for success are one form july, 20002 and another from June , 2003, and the ones bought in september of this year (This is because they still fitthe announced strategy criteria.)
The person running the portfolio is assigning a number of shares to each stream. If you divide the number of shares into a 1,000, you can see where the capital came from to do the trade. It will necessarily be a value that is 1,000 +150 compounded a number of times. This is a nominal test of the posted facts by the third party. All compounding have to be six or better if any are six or less. If they aren't, the money result you have at hand is not right. All values according to the portfolio keeper have made 6 cycles of 15% profit.
The data posted doesn't hold together for some reason.
At any rate, from this point forward, if this post survives, we know: We have holdings (13) We know how much cash we have 3,319). We know total capital (26K to 27K)
The last few weeks (4) the drift is about 1% a week downward.
For comparison my posted 4 streams of money are making an average of 7 to 9 % a week in September. I post this just to compare with the market and Mr. Market.
It is hard to make a ratio of our performance because ratios have to have the same kind of numbers. His are negative and I do not have any like that to compare.
I am looking forward to seeing the money applied in the two steams available 1/3 for each. hehe)
Mr. Marketâs posted record:
JAN, 2002
4 buys:
DHOM, GNWR,SAH, ANH
These make 15% each and are used to buy in APRIL, 2002, respectively:
MHK, GAN, RYL, PSTI and ACMR is purchased as a new stream of capital A minor I day screw up on one of them but let it go.
In May , six stocks are purchased (an additional stream of capital is used making 6 streams in use) :
JOSB, TENT, AXL, OHB, CHKE, FRED
And the following are sold:
GAN, RYL, JOSB, MHK, TENT
At the end of May, we note that the long term holds begin on five of these stocks: PTSI, AXL, OHB, CHKE and FRED. They are still being held as of today.
Two waves of trades over 5 months. One stock goes into the long term hold on the first wave and in the second wave one streams gets two trades and then the remaining four streams go into long term hold.
This means that in June we have NONE of the four original cash streams available and two streams were added and only one of them is available at this point.
What is clear to MR Market, The portfolio poster, myself and all who read the web site record is that from June on if more stocks are to be purchased, the money to do that has to come from somewhere.
A new stream was started in May and a series of trades are done with it. So in the last half of 2002 there is one purchase and a sale and then two other purchases which are held into 2003.
First, it is HAMP and HAMP is sold in July; next MDC is purchased and it is still held to this day. Lastly, in 2002 , AVD is purchased and held.
That ends 2002 7 streams have been activated and 7 streams became tied up by August and there was no trading for the rest of the year. In 2002, Mr. Market started with 4 streams, and added 3 more of the 14 streams he now runs. He added 7 streams in 2003 to be able to continue with any picking.
The 7 new streams were used starting in January, 2003 and 3 of the streams opened up that were started in 2002. 17 cycles were completed with these streams. This is almost 2 turn-overs of capital. At the same time 9 of the streams became tied up again as they are today; these may be added to the 4 streams still tied up from last year, a total of 13 streams.
The porfolio runner has 15 streams: a balancing stream, 2 free streams available for investment , and 13 streams that are listed at the website as being tied up. It doesnât quite add up but that is the way it is.
For quick reference the status is:
PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 21.00 -15.5%
AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 31.49 -9.3%
CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 20.81 -3.2%
MDC 7/10/2002 46.59 53.25 14.3%
GRMN 5/23/2003 45.91 45.20 -1.5%
WRLD 6/3/2003 14.43 15.08 4.5%
COH 6/9/2003 51.49 58.68 14.0%
WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.48 -11.2%
AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 38.94 -5.0%
NARA 7/25/2003 18.91 18.98 0.4%
DKS 7/29/2003 39.99 36.77 -8.1%
HELE 9/2/2003 24.13 25.25 4.6%
PRX 9/18/2003 72.40 71.57 -1.1%
This post is on topic and very accurate so it may survive.
JAN, 2002
4 buys:
DHOM, GNWR,SAH, ANH
These make 15% each and are used to buy in APRIL, 2002, respectively:
MHK, GAN, RYL, PSTI and ACMR is purchased as a new stream of capital A minor I day screw up on one of them but let it go.
In May , six stocks are purchased (an additional stream of capital is used making 6 streams in use) :
JOSB, TENT, AXL, OHB, CHKE, FRED
And the following are sold:
GAN, RYL, JOSB, MHK, TENT
At the end of May, we note that the long term holds begin on five of these stocks: PTSI, AXL, OHB, CHKE and FRED. They are still being held as of today.
Two waves of trades over 5 months. One stock goes into the long term hold on the first wave and in the second wave one streams gets two trades and then the remaining four streams go into long term hold.
This means that in June we have NONE of the four original cash streams available and two streams were added and only one of them is available at this point.
What is clear to MR Market, The portfolio poster, myself and all who read the web site record is that from June on if more stocks are to be purchased, the money to do that has to come from somewhere.
A new stream was started in May and a series of trades are done with it. So in the last half of 2002 there is one purchase and a sale and then two other purchases which are held into 2003.
First, it is HAMP and HAMP is sold in July; next MDC is purchased and it is still held to this day. Lastly, in 2002 , AVD is purchased and held.
That ends 2002 7 streams have been activated and 7 streams became tied up by August and there was no trading for the rest of the year. In 2002, Mr. Market started with 4 streams, and added 3 more of the 14 streams he now runs. He added 7 streams in 2003 to be able to continue with any picking.
The 7 new streams were used starting in January, 2003 and 3 of the streams opened up that were started in 2002. 17 cycles were completed with these streams. This is almost 2 turn-overs of capital. At the same time 9 of the streams became tied up again as they are today; these may be added to the 4 streams still tied up from last year, a total of 13 streams.
The porfolio runner has 15 streams: a balancing stream, 2 free streams available for investment , and 13 streams that are listed at the website as being tied up. It doesnât quite add up but that is the way it is.
For quick reference the status is:
PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 21.00 -15.5%
AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 31.49 -9.3%
CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 20.81 -3.2%
MDC 7/10/2002 46.59 53.25 14.3%
GRMN 5/23/2003 45.91 45.20 -1.5%
WRLD 6/3/2003 14.43 15.08 4.5%
COH 6/9/2003 51.49 58.68 14.0%
WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.48 -11.2%
AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 38.94 -5.0%
NARA 7/25/2003 18.91 18.98 0.4%
DKS 7/29/2003 39.99 36.77 -8.1%
HELE 9/2/2003 24.13 25.25 4.6%
PRX 9/18/2003 72.40 71.57 -1.1%
This post is on topic and very accurate so it may survive.
Hi Grob, I started this port in 2001 (see 1st post), so this explains the 80 closed streams, as opposed to the 32 closed + 13 open on MrMarket's website. It means that 48 streams were opened in 2001 and closed in 2001-2002.
And after the PRX buy, there is only 1 stock slot left free, see my message from 9/20. But I agree it is difficult to find my little reports between your spacious comments.
Regards,
Karel
And after the PRX buy, there is only 1 stock slot left free, see my message from 9/20. But I agree it is difficult to find my little reports between your spacious comments.
Regards,
Karel
Not all of my posts stick to the board. People here tend to read short posts and skip the long ones. Your short post stategy will find lots of short responses too.
Long posts aren't very effective as you point out. What is neat about them is how additional info isevoked that fills in the missing pieces.
Your comments on the past 48 streams is interesting. The record from Jan 2002 does include how anything still running in 2002 from 2001 was handled.
The current data base is fun enough for me. It is a great example of a system being originated, getting up to steady state, and then shutting down in due course.
Six items can fix it; it will be interesting to see if any of them come into play to salvage the situation.
As I already posted, MrMarket's Yahoogroup has been closed. Unfortunately, this affects the port as there are no longer any timestamped announcements by MrMarket to check the validity of the ports buys and sells. I will restart the portfolio. Bother Yahoo!
I will restart the portfolio completely, with $15,000 cash. The principle remains the same.
I also asked Ernie/Mr. Market to post a short announcement to this board when he buys or sells, with a link to the relevant topic with the complete announcement on his new board at www.mrmarketishuge.com. Next monday we might get the first pick.
Please don't discuss (let alone flame) his picks here, but discuss them on his board. Every Friday I will try to update this journal.
Regards,
Karel
I will restart the portfolio completely, with $15,000 cash. The principle remains the same.
I also asked Ernie/Mr. Market to post a short announcement to this board when he buys or sells, with a link to the relevant topic with the complete announcement on his new board at www.mrmarketishuge.com. Next monday we might get the first pick.
Please don't discuss (let alone flame) his picks here, but discuss them on his board. Every Friday I will try to update this journal.
Regards,
Karel
It is a good idea to restart the portfolio. I am guessing that 15,000 capitalization means something.
Could you tell use how many streams of money are planned and how soon all of them will be deployed. Right now he is doing over one pick a month.
Will you actually be able to tell us the number of shares he buys as most poeple do in normal porfolios?
Could you tell us how the one that is being dissolved closed out by giving us the prices for each sale?
How about the last three purchases in September any chance they could be included just to get the ball rolling (or dropped)?
This sounds like the Yahoo team of 800 is being restarted too. Could you tell us if and how many people rejoin and are active?
My personal feeling it that restarting is a good idea. changing some rules would help too. I hope he uses stops for starters. Price stops, like say half of exprected gains (7.5) and time stops, like say 9 weeks after the buy (50%more than the expected duration of the trade). I would also suggest that he hold winners just to find out how far up they go. He had a lot more money that he left on the table than he tool off. Why not just keep wnners this time and get rid of loosers. You know the opposite of what he is doing.
I think for psychological reasons you should us 32 wins in a row as a kind of motto, a kind of thing Mr. Market can chalk up as being part of his persona. Like that game show stuff. 32 is the 6th step usually on the way to big money.
Best of luck.
Hello Grob,
No, because I already did, and I haven't the faintest idea how fast all 14
stock slots get filled.
I am not "he", so I don't know how much he buys. I'll specify the amount for the port, though.
Yes, the sale price will be the one announced by MrMarket, just like the buy price.
No, I will start the port empty. I want everything accounted for. The old posts might serve as a reminder.
No, just go to the board and you'll see how many have joined.
Please don't ask me to change the strategy someone else is following. It is pointless.
Thank you!
Karel
No, because I already did, and I haven't the faintest idea how fast all 14
stock slots get filled. I am not "he", so I don't know how much he buys. I'll specify the amount for the port, though.
Yes, the sale price will be the one announced by MrMarket, just like the buy price.
No, I will start the port empty. I want everything accounted for. The old posts might serve as a reminder.
No, just go to the board and you'll see how many have joined.
Please don't ask me to change the strategy someone else is following. It is pointless.
Thank you!
Karel
Quote from Qarel:
Hello Grob,
No, because I already did, and I haven't the faintest idea how fast all 14
I am not "he", so I don't know how much he buys. I'll specify the amount for the port, though.
Yes, the sale price will be the one announced by MrMarket, just like the buy price.
No, I will start the port empty. I want everything accounted for. The old posts might serve as a reminder.
No, just go to the board and you'll see how many have joined.
Please don't ask me to change the strategy someone else is following. It is pointless.
Thank you!
Karel
Thanks so much.
14 streams with 15,000 dollars. No carry over on the recent picks. And he is going to not use price or time stops and not let winners ride, just the losers will be riding.
It will be a unique portfolio based on 32 consecutive winners or 80 over all I can't remember.
OK, I just saw MrMarket's announcement, so I might as well try to beat him to the post. From http://mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=80
Today I bought FINL (The Finish Line) at 27.13 and I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 31.39.
The port has bought ($1000 - $10)/$27.13 = 36 FINL and will hold it until FINL reaches 31.39, or MrMarket sells for some other reason. If you want to discuss this pick, don't do it with me. I am just keeping score. Go to MrMarket's board!
Regards,
Karel
Today I bought FINL (The Finish Line) at 27.13 and I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 31.39.
The port has bought ($1000 - $10)/$27.13 = 36 FINL and will hold it until FINL reaches 31.39, or MrMarket sells for some other reason. If you want to discuss this pick, don't do it with me. I am just keeping score. Go to MrMarket's board!
Regards,
Karel
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