Ok this is my first journal entry.
Just a little information:
I been trading the markets since 1980's and have been a long time investor moving in and out of markets. I was fortunate to catch the 1980's mutual funds wave and prospered nicely on the wings of the Peter Lynch and Sir John Templeton days. I held most of my investments all the way up to 1999 when I pretty much dumped everything. I have dabbled in and out of the markets ever since holding core stock positions but never fully going full 100% into the markets with my equity. Today, I tend to swing trade and daytrade when certain situations present themselves on the extremes.
Now onto the first entry:
Last Friday we had a lock limit down across the board - a trifecta with the ES, NQ, and YM. Watching the action, it looked very suspect to me - almost bear trappish in nature over a shorter time frame. On Friday the market bounced to keep its head above water and green paint appeared.
Sitting here watching futures overnight, it looks like a replay of Thursday night/Friday morning. However, I don't feel we lock limit down. That would be utter devastation to the markets, this on the heels within a week away from the US presidential vote. Doing so would ruin all chances for the Republican Party to recapture the seat even though McCain is far behind in the polls. Undecided voters that could change the course of the elections would no doubt weigh very heavily on the current situation and an Obama win would be certain.
Short term outlook:
I am looking at the recent sell off the past few weeks and feel that ES 830 is an area of good support in the near term, at least into elections. Anything over ES 900 is bullish but for the most part it looks like short the spikes and buy the dips. VIX continues to remain high and looks way overdone at these levels. VIX 50 stabilization over the next few weeks wouldn't surprise me.
This weekend, Barron's came out on the front page to their online site to say that Fridays action was too close for comfort. Well if they looked at this mornings futures action they may had to rewrite that story because ES has hit a new low.
In that article they cited 10 times earnings for US stocks (no idea where they came up with this) but historically, that is very reasonable for buying stocks.
Monitoring chat channels and message boards, there is an overwhelming scream from the bears to take ES down to the mid 700 levels and Dow 6500. Whenever I see this sort of thing, I liken this the overexcited bull when the Dow hits 12,000 screaming for 15,000.
Just a little information:
I been trading the markets since 1980's and have been a long time investor moving in and out of markets. I was fortunate to catch the 1980's mutual funds wave and prospered nicely on the wings of the Peter Lynch and Sir John Templeton days. I held most of my investments all the way up to 1999 when I pretty much dumped everything. I have dabbled in and out of the markets ever since holding core stock positions but never fully going full 100% into the markets with my equity. Today, I tend to swing trade and daytrade when certain situations present themselves on the extremes.
Now onto the first entry:
Last Friday we had a lock limit down across the board - a trifecta with the ES, NQ, and YM. Watching the action, it looked very suspect to me - almost bear trappish in nature over a shorter time frame. On Friday the market bounced to keep its head above water and green paint appeared.
Sitting here watching futures overnight, it looks like a replay of Thursday night/Friday morning. However, I don't feel we lock limit down. That would be utter devastation to the markets, this on the heels within a week away from the US presidential vote. Doing so would ruin all chances for the Republican Party to recapture the seat even though McCain is far behind in the polls. Undecided voters that could change the course of the elections would no doubt weigh very heavily on the current situation and an Obama win would be certain.
Short term outlook:
I am looking at the recent sell off the past few weeks and feel that ES 830 is an area of good support in the near term, at least into elections. Anything over ES 900 is bullish but for the most part it looks like short the spikes and buy the dips. VIX continues to remain high and looks way overdone at these levels. VIX 50 stabilization over the next few weeks wouldn't surprise me.
This weekend, Barron's came out on the front page to their online site to say that Fridays action was too close for comfort. Well if they looked at this mornings futures action they may had to rewrite that story because ES has hit a new low.
In that article they cited 10 times earnings for US stocks (no idea where they came up with this) but historically, that is very reasonable for buying stocks.
Monitoring chat channels and message boards, there is an overwhelming scream from the bears to take ES down to the mid 700 levels and Dow 6500. Whenever I see this sort of thing, I liken this the overexcited bull when the Dow hits 12,000 screaming for 15,000.
