Mr siegel says will never see those march lows EVER again!

[S2007S]

Confident we are, arent we?? I guess when the fed can backstop anything and everything you can feel as powerful as you want by saying those lows on March 23rd will never be seen again. Amazing that lows can only happen for a brief moment in time but highs and overbought conditions can last a lifetime.


Still, according to Siegel, unprecedented support for the economy by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government make it nearly impossible for the stock market to revert to its late March lows.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...we-will-never-see-those-lows-again-2020-05-08

 

[systematictrader]

I would say i can agree with this guy but i believe before that we will have few more scary days or weeks, not sure how low but to return back to normalcy this quick is bot typical of such drops specially that now everyone is complacent again and there is still bargains suggesting its not to easy to just buy and never feel pain on the way up

as far as 2021 ive seen many arguemneys aside from fed buying that corporate profits and pe ratio and roi on S&P 500 on yearly basis are still far behind meaning index needs and will rise even more to catch up and this is backed by true profits

iam Not fundamentally inclined and simply paraphrasing so dont bark too loud at the above statements

 

[S2007S]

4:06 into interview

He states 8 weeks of expanded liquidity pushed into the market, more than an entire year back when Lehman collapsed.

 

[systematictrader]

4:06 into interview

He states 8 weeks of expanded liquidity pushed into the market, more than an entire year back when Lehman collapsed.

Now this is the type of rational macro fundamentals i like to hear, because it makes sense and is a big picture style

 

[Nine_Ender]

but highs and overbought conditions can last a lifetime.

Now there's a giant clue for you why you struggle. We aren't at "overbought" conditions most of the time. You just think we are.

 

[S2007S]

Assets on Fed balance sheet rise to record $6.72 trillion
Published: May 7, 2020 at 5:30 p.m. ET




https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...rd-672-trillion-2020-05-07?mod=article_inline

 

[systematictrader]

Now there's a giant clue for you why you struggle. We aren't at "overbought" conditions most of the time. You just think we are.

i believe he means overbought indicator wise

 

[lesserfool]

Maybe someone can explain my error here: The Fed has pumped 7 trillion into a roughly 21 trillion economy, or roughly 30%. That fills the roughly 30% drop in GDP predicted for Q2.

However, the 30% figure for GDP is on an annualized basis. Nobody really expects that drop to persist, once the economy starts to re-open. We should see at least some rebound in employment and output. When all is said and done, 2020 should have less than a 30% drop in GDP. Assuming true, does that mean the Fed has over-stimulated the economy? (assuming they don't withdraw stimulus as quickly as they added it)

 

[lesserfool]

Realizing now that the Fed's balance sheet didn't start at zero, so perhaps that's my answer.

 

[Turveyd]

Maybe someone can explain my error here: The Fed has pumped 7 trillion into a roughly 21 trillion economy, or roughly 30%. That fills the roughly 30% drop in GDP predicted for Q2.

However, the 30% figure for GDP is on an annualized basis. Nobody really expects that drop to persist, once the economy starts to re-open. We should see at least some rebound in employment and output. When all is said and done, 2020 should have less than a 30% drop in GDP. Assuming true, does that mean the Fed has over-stimulated the economy? (assuming they don't withdraw stimulus as quickly as they added it)

They haven't stimulated the economy, they've just propped up the markets for show it's not going to have an effect of small businesses not closing or jobs not being lost.

It's a hey look at us our economy ( well markets ) are still doing great regardless.