MPEL IPO - Straight Macau Gaming Play

Quote from stonedinvestor:

Alright I admit I had a small left over bong hit when the CPI came out this morning... but this really started to come to me yesterday it's a complete psychic stock thing based on NO fundamentals and NO good chart I suddenly want to buy MPEL again. Yes I lost $1000 the first time. It's a gut instinct thing... BuyLo what you say? If I promise to sell if it breaks it's low- would I, could I, should I... ?????
~stoney
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What do you mean by "gut insinct"? Unless you have like a 3 year plus track record in successfully identifying which concept stocks are going to soar, and avoiding the other 95% that are destined for the nearest dumpster, then your gut instinct is nothing but a fanciful delusion.

You previously had a gut instinct about this stock, and you turned out to be not only wrong, but your "foresaw" the exact *opposite* of what actually happened. Based on this precedent, I think the wisest thing you could do is to *never* trade on gut instinct again.

Study stocks that you have traded or observed that did really well, note down their characteristics before and during the big move, then what changed to make the move finish. Then look around for other stocks that display similar characteristics, buy them , and hold until signs associated with previous tops start to appear. In other words, build a method so that you can trade based on observation, facts, and market behaviour, not on wild-eyed gamblers hunches and other such nonsense.

All the losers inside this company's casinos believe in "hunches", "streaks", and other mystical garbage like that. Such beliefs have no place in the mind of a trader.

The only positive thing I see in your post is using Cramer as a contrary indicator. That has indeed worked many, many times in the past. When you see prominent bulls throwing in the towel it is usually a bit bullish for prices. But I have to say, I would rarely if ever get long in something *solely* on that factor.

It just seems like you have no plan or methodology at all. You just find a hunch, punt on it, and that's that. Seriously, why not do some work and raise your game? Stop with this half-cocked hustler approach to the markets.
 
This is such a funny thread:)!

I'm still in MPEL too. I rode it down from $21. I forgot I had it for a while there. lol!

Nothing's changed since the beginning of the thread. We all know this stock is a gamble. If you cannot afford to LOSE the money, then you shouldn't buy this stock.

We won't know til fall if this pays off or not. If it does pay off, it could be a nice one. If it fails, you just lost all your $$.

We'll see.
 
Wow Cutten what a mean reply. You would kick a stonedinvestor when he's down. Fine. Yes I have a speculative online account yes occasionally when nothing else is working I fail back on why the hell is that Casino stock not being caught up in the hysteria that captures so many stocks of bad quality. You obviously know nothing of the stonedinvestor. I buy stable stocks. Don't worry about that. This whole MELCO story is weird granted. Ok. Melco has "the most balanced product portfolio" in Macau, says Credit Suisse's Chan. I asked him if he was serious he nodded affirmative.
"In our view, the U.S. companies are too focused on the mass-market segment, as they are particularly handicapped in the high-roller segment due to U.S. regulations," Chan says. I agree.

UBS analysts said in a late-January note that Melco is compelling, but added that the stock was fully valued at its then-price of $21. JPMorgan initiated coverage of the stock at the same time, saying it was an attractive long-term play, but that "the stock would become more attractive with a price correction greater than 15%." Both firms rate Melco neutral.

Since then, Melco's stock is down more than 20%, and neither firm has raised its rating.

tic, tic, tic...

To get at a proper value for Melco, it's best to look at earnings in 2009, when two casinos will be fully up and running. Analysts expect Melco to record earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $780 million in 2009, according to Thomson Financial estimates.

At its current price around $16 a share, Melco has an enterprise value of $6.41 billion. Discounting back the company's 2009 cash flow, the stock is trading at a one-year forward EBITDA multiple of 11.

Some investors argue the stock should instead trade at a 13 to 14 times multiple, stonedinvestor in particular sees the ability for Father Ho to inflate this stock at a moments notice. There is a greater Ho plan here. MPEL should not be this low I don't think. not as a grand opening approaches.

Upgrades, opening hoopla is only part of the story. There's an additional plot of land they have most people don't know about and a floating pier thiga majigger that's going to catch the low end gambler off the dayboats. The HIGH rollers will be ensconced at MPEL's casino where they are slightly removed from the action and should stay on the hotel grounds... these guys spend so much money> Oh yea I'm talking about the shadowy underworld gangster types the types . The Import Exporters that the US companies like Las Vegas Sands can't cater to by law.... but MPEL can they can let the dirty Russian money roll, Their ownership structure could turn out to be a BIG positive. I know the underwater casino it's laughable, it all sounds so crazy, perhaps I'm an idiot but I know that I don't need you to make sweeping assertions about my trading styles. I've been investing every day for twenty some odd years my friend and I've made quite a few impulsive bets- my instinct on when to re pick up an old idea generally is very good. Let's just see how it plays out- shall we?~stoney
 
Stoney, I had this sucker down from $19.50. It's a smaller part of my overall holding....but its taking the biggest rip- obviously my spec. play.

The problem is there is some cost overrun with the current project- press release last Friday.

But this is a gambling play, we all know it. This stock can fly like WYNN and LVS did or it take a dump to $10 a share by the end of the year.

One of the casino is still projected to open on April...by then we shall have a much clear picture of what the stock should be trading at. (cash flow, profitability...ya de ya da).

The sucker also get sold down with rest of the Chinese stocks...I want to add more to my position, but the chart doesn't look too good. I'll wait a bit.
 
I hate this stock, stoney.

Don't make me pull the trigger on such a fundamentally flawed, and extraordinarily speculative basket case of a company/family crisis.

:p
 
ByLo no one hates this stock more than me! That's why I own it. Listen it woke up it's obvious look at the high today that was hedge funds who are always willing to listen to stoney but never really willing to hold-- bailing. You know you are getting a gift this Friday. It will trade up
all next week.
 
FINALLY REDEMPTION!

Buying this ugly duckling back today. Missed in the carnage yesterday was this little gem of news....

MPEL takes in HK $50 BILLION? Bn whatever that is, in one month Feb! Lets assume it's million, I'm fine with that! This would mean 1st qtr will be a BLOWOUT... Stanley Ho my man!


:MPEL): Deutsche Bank out with a significant intraday call....

- Deutsche Bank is saying that after their visit to Macau, they remain bullish on the phenomenal growth in Crown's VIP business. Channel checks suggest Crown rolled almost HK$50bn in Feb. Firm thinks MPEL will deliver a stellar performance in 1Q, based on solid rolling and a high hold in Jan-Feb. They are raising their 1Q08 EBITDA forecast by 43% to $70m, the highest on the Street.

Channel checks suggested that Crown rolled almost HK$50bn in Feb, or 23% of Macau's VIP play. This lifted Crown's overall market share from 16% in Jan to 18% in Feb.

City of Dreams looked on track to openPhase 1 by end of 1Q09, with the main podium superstructure works 95% complete. DB sees this as one of the best location on the Cotai Strip, being near the airport and ferry terminal, and directly across from the Venetian.

Given the strong trends in VIP rolling, they are raising our FY08 EBITDA estimate by 22% to $261m.

Reiterates Buy, $22 target on MPEL as a strong operator with market share gains.

>> Take this along with some info I've gotten about WYNN in looking at an investment there- Mr Wynn has bought two airplanes for ferrying high rollers from Vegas to..... you guessed it Macau... as the strip fades and recession sinks in on the mainland here the fun is just beginning in Macau. I'm thinking strongly about both WYNN and the pure play MPEL today.... What say you BuyLo?~ stoney
 
Hey Stoney.

I can't pull the trigger on it. Especially on a day like today. I wish they had transparent books; that would at least allow me to know what their EBITDA is.
 
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