Moving Averages discussion

[notagain]

BollingerBands with weighted MA HLC/3 on range bars

 

[virtusa]

BollingerBands with weighted MA HLC/3 on range bars
View attachment 239219

You left out the most important thing: which are the rules to enter an exit?

Without these rules your chart has no value.

 

[Overnight]

BollingerBands with weighted MA HLC/3 on range bars
View attachment 239219

So...What is price most likely going to do, tomorrow, based on your chart? That's all that matters, yes?

 

[virtusa]

So...What is price most likely going to do, tomorrow, based on your chart? That's all that matters, yes?

Probably he does not know that now. But it is good enough to know it a few minutes before it happens.

 

[Overnight]

Probably he does not know that now. But it is good enough to know it a few minutes before it happens.

Huh? Wha? Tomorrow is 6PM ET for the MNQ. So what does that chart say is going to happen, most likely, at 6PM tomorrow?

 

[themickey]

Huh? Wha? Tomorrow is 6PM ET for the MNQ. So what does that chart say is going to happen, most likely, at 6PM tomorrow?

Will be able to tell you after 6PM and say "see the indicators told me so".

 

[tomorton]

That's why MA's are useless as trading signals. MA's don't give information that is specific/accurate enough to enter or exit the market.

Reaction time of MA's are too slow to trade on, and if you make them faster (shorter periods or smaller timeframe) to get faster signals, your MA's will start to whipsaw you.

I know this already.

 

[tomorton]

There are no technical indicators or price action patterns that give you indications with anything better than approximately 50% precision. You would be damn lucky to find something that gave a correct indication 55% of the time.

I don't disagree. But a 55% accuracy rate is enough to make a decent profit.

 

[yc47ib]

MAs are a crutch, and not much help in any time frame.

All you need to trade successfully is
(1) A measure of volatility
(2) Open, Close, High, Low of your instrument compared to x number of previous bars
(3) An exit. (Profit target, Loss target, Bars or time)

That's what price action is, and that's all you need.

Here's an example of a short entry on an instrument I trade, which is one of the most profitable in my toolbox.

ENTRY AT OPEN OF BAR IF: CL.1>OP.2*1.10 OR CL.1>LO.1*1.08 OR CL.1>CL.2*1.08 OR CL.1>OP.2*1.10 OR (CL.1>OP.1 AND CL.1<HI.1*.97) OR (CL.1>OP.1 AND HI.1>OP.1*1.05)
EXIT: AT CLOSE OF BAR

There is not an MA or indicator in sight. All price action

I am slow but am I understanding your logic correctly? Feedback appreciated!

ENTRY AT OPEN OF BAR IF:


CL.1>OP.2*1.10 current bar + previous bar = bullish not pure doji

OR

CL.1>LO.1*1.08 current bullish bar and not pure doji

OR

CL.1>CL.2*1.08 current bar close > previous bar close at least tiny bit

OR

CL.1>OP.2*1.10 (sic! Repetition to first line)

OR

(CL.1>OP.1 AND CL.1<HI.1*.97) current bullish bar and not close at high

OR

(CL.1>OP.1 AND HI.1>OP.1*1.05) current bullish bar and not pure doji


EXIT: AT CLOSE OF BAR

 

[Peter8519]

Of course, the past is not necessarily the future. But the future often repeat the past. Most stocks often show complete "disrespect" of the moving average. If one is using moving averages, then it's best to stay away until they start to respect it. ALL stocks will break moving average at some point in time. Once a stock is starting to track the moving average, be patient and not to hop onto it too early. Because, 7 in 10 will break the moving average early. Once it past the early phase, 3 in 10 will fail. I use VEEV as an example(not a recommendation).