Most volatile moves in the ES?

Quote from tiddlywinks:

Audio of The Flash Crash.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mC4tu1NhUA

Harry Caray, Howard Cosell, Ben Lichtenstein.
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most of us have heard that many times, but thanks tiddlywinks for posting it again. It always cracks me up, when it breaks 79 he looses all sense of reality and just starts calling it the way he always does.

The funniest is when the bid is 65 and the offer is 70. And he is just calling it like a normal day.
 
Quote from schulzey:

I'm just wondering worse case scenarios what could happen in the ES.
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You're asking the wrong questions.

The worst case is that you will lose all your money +. This has nothing to do with ES however and everything to do with you.

Try thinking a bit more about what it is you are trying to reach a conclusion to and ask the right question.

If you dont like ES, try Eurodollars.
 
The difference is I've always traded stocks. I start with a small position (maybe 10-20% of my portfolio) and add to positions going my way. With ES it's highly leveraged. Just 1 contract is more than the cash in my account so I'm just wondering if stops ever get blown past, that's all. I believe this is a perfectly valid question since I've just been using the demo and haven't traded ES for real yet.

The questions will soon cease as I plan to start trading it for real within the next few weeks.

Thanks for the replies.
 
Quote from TheBlackHand:

You're asking the wrong questions.

The worst case is that you will lose all your money +. This has nothing to do with ES however and everything to do with you.

Try thinking a bit more about what it is you are trying to reach a conclusion to and ask the right question.

If you dont like ES, try Eurodollars.
More...
My dad was a pilot in WWII, as he said, on the way over all you worried about was getting shot down, it wasn't until the trip home that you started worrying about running out of fuel or mechanical failure. All worry is relative. Once you start trading, you will find that your worries suddenly become very basic. If you ever get flat, you can worry if the broker goes bust or the world comes to an end.
 
if I was trading ES again, and had some technical indicators, I would edit out all the fundamental moves, like when the fed speaks or jobs Friday.

I think that would give you a much more accurate historical analysis.

also I would always stay spread ES vs YM, and pay all the extra costs to eliminate the need for stops and to protect against black swan

It doesn't make sense if you think about it too much, so just don't think about it too much, but the jist is, spread when you are not sure and hold overnight until the path becomes a little more clear

I'm still living on the proceeds from just one ES trade I held for two months

And hopefully, I will never be so desperate I ever have to do that again

doing that fully margined in SPY is one thing, but do it in ES and all money starts to lose any connection to reality
 
Quote from schulzey:

Hi everyone, I've primarily been an swing trader in stocks and am switching over to Eminis. Since I'm going to play the ES for short term trades and M6E for longer term trades I need to understand the risks of the short term ES trades as it's unfamiliar territory for me.

What I'm curious about is how fast and by how much the ES can move against you when things get crazy volatile. I've heard of some big moves happening very fast in the ES afterhours catching people by surprise.

What is the biggest and fastest move that someone has seen trading the ES during US market or after market hours? Some people have told me they've seen 40 point moves afterhours in a matter of minutes.

If these kinds of things happen often where they would blow past stops, I might reconsider how much capital I'm planning on putting towards my ES trades.

As always, thanks for any input!
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40 point Emini ES moves in a "matter of minutes" do not happen often. If such did happen, its a fat finger trade entry or in yester-years markets that had bigger range days in higher volatility price actions (review your VIX charts side by side with your regular session Emini ES charts).

Also, I highly recommend you get a real-time data provider and watch Emini ES for several months to get a "feel" for how fast it can move and by how many points when things get crazy volatile as you refer to.

If those you've been talking to that said Emini ES volatile price movement had caught them by surprise...you're either talking to traders that's talking about the Emini ES years ago with a bigger trading range or talking to someone that failed to follow real-time key market events so that they don't sneak up and bite them on the butt.

Once again, 40 point Emini ES moves in a matter of minutes do not happen often. In fact, in today's low volatility trading environment...such a move rarely happens unless its a fat finger trade problem by some institution.
 
The ES daily range is about 10-15 points now. We see 20 points now and then. 40+ points are rare and usually occur market crashes, disasters, etc....

Premarket starts 630-7am pst. Market is usually volatile around those times. There are usually reports at 7am. You can refer to this calendar for reports http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/. FOMC are days to watch also.
 
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