mortgage bailout coming next week???

Quote from CaptainObvious:

Then there's a trade here, no? Some fairly far OTM call options, 2-3 months out. Longshot kind of a trade. Don't bet the farm, just a buck or two.
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Buying some gold calls and treasury puts is the call. It seems like such a ridiculous rumor that you won't pay much for the bet, and can take it off cheaply the day or two after the meeting on the 17th.
 
Quote from scriabinop23:

To 20000 quickly. This is equivalent to printing $1T and putting it straight into people's hands. The first $1T didn't work (in stoking inflation) because it went straight to shore up bank capital. This would surely amp up consumer demand like we've never seen before.

As well, the treasury would be sitting with a $1T loss.. They would have to sell debt to finance the decision. The Fed could optionally monetize this (by buying treasuries on the open market).

I'd bet this is next to impossible considering all the deficit-posturing we've seen up to this point.
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+1
 
Quote from clacy:

I agree. I just don't see this happening, given the appetite for bailouts in the US.
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Yes, but this assumes the administration gives a damn about public opinion. Their moves as of late would say that they don't.
You can play the pass line all night long, sometimes you gotta' put a buck or two on the boxcars just to liven things up.
 
Quote from Stok:

He said big call buyers in the 45/40 VIX..which means a spike in the VIX, which means markets would be going down.
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I knew there was something wrong with what he wrote.


I think anything below 20 on the VIX is a time to start buying calls.

The VIX could easily jump to 30+ within a day or 2 on a market downturn.
 
Quote from achilles28:

+1
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By the way I like your 'investment plan' on the other thread in econ ... buy out of the money puts financed by income to hedge for shocks.

My alternative suggestion is something like 30 year treasuries 80%, 10% gold or silver bullion, the other 10% in gold/commodity stocks and no derivatives. The idea here being that deflation reigns supreme with the equity/leverage/commodity exposure to 'hedge' just in case that doesn't work out. Its a 'dumb' zero management portfolio based on preserving principle and maximizing income. Reinvest the income in either the same allocation, or towards a gradually increasing equity exposure.
 
This mortgage bailout will happen. Why would Obama "leave money on the table"? Do you "leave money on the table"?

It can be sold as a humane way to relieve pressures on American families, it helps Obama, and the debt can all be thrown into the future.

Any proposal that has these three ingredients will become reality.

Get ready!!
 
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