Morgan Stanley Traders Lost $390 Million in One Day in August
- Thread starter ASusilovic
- Start date
What I meant with rumor is everything surrounding the pure reported loss number. The filing does not specify how it happened nor does it have to. Nobody knows exactly who is responsible for the mess and how could it happen. Anything about this is rumors at the moment. Or did you get a clue after reading this who caused this loss. What program trading module failed and why? I did not.
The point was that the odds are changed in your favor but are only activated if you make the switch. I'm holding the events somewhat independent of each other.
Not drawing decisions trees or Venn diagrams here, just common sense. Try it sometime.
It still is incorrect and will remain incorrect. ;-)
1/2 is an incorrect probability in this puzzle no matter how you come up with your numbers. There are two probabilities, 1/3 and 2/3 and nothing else is correct. I am out of here this is really pathetic. Its very sad that some simply cannot admit they are wrong even though there is plenty of resources and tons of people that showed them how its done correctly. I think this is a good example of why most "wanna-be traders" hang on to their losses and bankrupt their account....because they cannot admit they are wrong and get out early enough. The discussion was very enlightening....in many ways ;-)
Well maybe your outta here because you fail to look at the problem logically.
You never gave me a answer to the 10 cup game. You wanted 2.9 odds on 3 cups. So now lets take 10 cups, you pick one and I remove 8. What kind of odds do you expect? I hope you don't expect 9-1 odds and still think you are giving me a edge.
You can try to spin this any way you want but there is no case in which your statement in bold below is correct. The odds are never 50/50 - clearly you didn't understand that when you posted, its not clear if you understand it now.
It would be nice if folks would just admit it when they made a mistake rather than compound it by becoming argumentative about it.
Let me try again.
If you start with 1000 cups and pick one cup that you think has a coin under it, your odds of being correct are 1 in 1000.
Now if Monty removes 998 empty cups (because he knows which cup has the coin under it) and you are left with 2 cups, including your first cup that you picked.
Isn't it now obvious that the coin is far more likely to be under the other cup? So you switch. It is the same thing if you start with 3 cups - just a little less obvious.
If you start with 1000 cups and pick one cup that you think has a coin under it, your odds of being correct are 1 in 1000.
Now if Monty removes 998 empty cups (because he knows which cup has the coin under it) and you are left with 2 cups, including your first cup that you picked.
Isn't it now obvious that the coin is far more likely to be under the other cup? So you switch. It is the same thing if you start with 3 cups - just a little less obvious.
