Morgan Stanley Traders Lost $390 Million in One Day in August

For all the people that believe in Monty Hall's paradox let me see how this turns your wheels.

Ok, lets say you give me 100 chances at this and I don't make the switch. I should be right roughly 33.3333333333333 percent of the time. Now the fact remains that when you remove one of the wrong ones. Whether I switched or not I still have a 50/50 chance of it being right.

So give me the same 100 chances and this time I will make the switch every time. So say I always pick 1 then switch to the one thats left. I still have 2 cups with no clue with which one the coin is under. Still sounds like the same 50/50 situation to me. So tell me is there some power in the universe that will beem down and give my switching ability the power to increase my odds?

You people defending it sound like the people on my 21 game when a new player sits down. That some how the cards are now so messed up they just can't win anymore. Or the guy/gal on 3rd base that doesn't hit 16 and i the dealer make my 21 and we all blame the 3rd base.
 
Quote from jrlvnv:

For all the people that believe in Monty Hall's paradox let me see how this turns your wheels.

Ok, lets say you give me 100 chances at this and I don't make the switch. I should be right roughly 33.3333333333333 percent of the time. Now the fact remains that when you remove one of the wrong ones. Whether I switched or not I still have a 50/50 chance of it being right.

So give me the same 100 chances and this time I will make the switch every time. So say I always pick 1 then switch to the one thats left. I still have 2 cups with no clue with which one the coin is under. Still sounds like the same 50/50 situation to me. So tell me is there some power in the universe that will beem down and give my switching ability the power to increase my odds?

You people defending it sound like the people on my 21 game when a new player sits down. That some how the cards are now so messed up they just can't win anymore. Or the guy/gal on 3rd base that doesn't hit 16 and i the dealer make my 21 and we all blame the 3rd base.
More...

You really dont get it. Ok, here you go, because you obviously are too ignorant to read any of the links on the internet that explain this in DETAIL: YOu agree that when you pick one cup initially you have 1/3 prob of winning. You also agree that the other cups combined have a prob of 2/3 of winning, right? So if you now take one cup away from the 2 then the set of those previous two, now one, still has a prob of winning of 2/3. Does this ring any bell? Updated information changes probabilities. Are you really that irgnorant or you just try to piss off people? I simply dont get it. Why dont you simulate it in excel. Generate 1000 binomially distributed vars, "standardize" them so you end up with values of 1,2 or 3 symbolizing that the coin is under cup 1, 2, or 3. THen you again generate random numbers to decide which of the empty cups to take out of the game......the rest you can set up yourself. If you really cant or are too lazy to do then get lost. You waste others time.
 
the answer to this Monty Hall's paradox is absolutely correct but it's another one of those academic exercises that rely on an academic assumption. the assumption is that you get to travel back in time and choose again.

so while the answer is 100% correct, the question is academic.

most people who have not read a lot of textbooks have a difficult time thinking from a textbook point of view. most people who are only reading textbooks have a difficult time accepting why their thinking, although 100% correct, isn't applicable in the real world.
 
Quote from bidask:

the answer to this Monty Hall's paradox is absolutely correct but it's another one of those academic exercises that rely on an academic assumption. the assumption is that you get to travel back in time and choose again.

so while the answer is 100% correct, the question is academic.

most people who have not read a lot of textbooks have a difficult time thinking from a textbook point of view. most people who are only reading textbooks have a difficult time accepting why his thinking, although 100% correct, isn't applicable in the real world.
More...
No time travel required. Quite clearly you do not understand the problem. You simply get to chose again. Forget about connections to trading, it is merely a problem to test your analytical thinking. Don't feel bad, most people fail it.
 
I am trying my best not to point fingers here because I think someone mixed up the usage of statistics ...

1. If there is one and only one event of choosing a cup and then an offer to switch, then it is all about luck and forget about probabilities.

i.e. Go tell the winner of a lottery ticket that he is an idiot wasting $ on something with such low probability.
He can tell you that every single $ he won is real. :)

2. If you are betting on a series of combo events stated in #1, then do the switch because it will pay off!

i.e. if you do not believe me, write a small program to conduct the test over, say, 1000 cases of random selections.

Trading is about consistencies in exploiting the edge you have. That is probability at work.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

I am trying my best not to point fingers here because I think someone mixed up the usage of statistics ...

1. If there is one and only one event of choosing a cup and then an offer to switch, then it is all about luck and forget about probabilities.

i.e. Go tell the winner of a lottery ticket that he is an idiot wasting $ on something with such low probability.
He can tell you that every single $ he won is real. :)

2. If you are betting on a series of combo events stated in #1, then do the switch because it will pay off!

i.e. if you do not believe me, write a small program to conduct the test over, say, 1000 cases of random selections.

Trading is about consistencies in exploiting the edge you have. That is probability at work.
More...

Well you pointed your finger....at yourself. Please play this game with me. I even give you the honor to be the dealer. Your only tasks are a) to charge me 1 dollar for each game played, and pay me 2.9 if I pick the right cup with the coin (I give you 10 cents so you can earn a decent living) b) after I chose a cup you just pick one of the empty cups and take it out of the game and offer me to switch. I assure you that I will bankrupt you FOR SURE no matter what amount you start with, given we play sufficiently many games. You are the one who does not understand statistics thats for sure.

This is MY edge over you, and its very consistent, and yes, that is what trading is about, but you seem to be on the losing side of my trades LOL
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top