More guns not equal to more deaths

Tsing Tao

Tsing Tao

I'm posting this in it's own thread because I spent some time putting it together and don't want it buried right away.

In an attempt to dispel the absolute nonsense that "more guns = more deaths", I've done some data crunching with information available at the FBI, and the gun control website ShootingTracker.

The information is interesting. First, this is a collection of all gun murder rates by state, the detail of which can be found here. Sorry for the chart size/formatting. I've never pasted from excel/powerpoint into this forum before.

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States are listed from highest gun murder rate per 1000 population to lowest. However, states in RED are those states where gun ownership is less than 25%. States in Green are those where the gun ownership rate (per 1000 people) is higher than 50%.

The first thing that jumps out to you is that there are plenty of states where gun control is tightest (Maryland, DC) that have high murder rates by guns. In DC, hand guns are illegal. In EVERY SINGLE RED COLORED STATE with the exception of Florida, Concealed Carry permits are next to impossible to get. Feel free to check out the laws yourself here. Again, Florida is the exception. In ALL green states (where gun ownership per 1000 people is >50%), a concealed carry permit is Shall Issue and easy to get (provided you are not a felon, no history of domestic disputes and not mentally unstable.

The second chart here details all "mass shootings" (definition from ShootingTracker - along with all links and news reporting).

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Again, sorry for the size of the chart. States are listed by number of deaths from mass shooting incidents in the last three years (through Jan-2013). Of the top 5 states, two of them, including the #1, are states where it is next to impossible to get a concealed carry license, and very tough on guns and gun owners legally speaking - California and Illinois. Two others (Texas, Florida) are very easy on laws, and Ohio is moderate.

In California, the top 5 cities are almost 40% of all the killings (172 deaths). They are

Los Angeles
Fresno
Stockton
Sacramento
Oakland

In Texas, 30% are in Houston and Dallas alone (70 deaths).

In Florida, exactly 1/3 of all deaths are Miami, Kissimmee (Orlando) and Jacksonville.

In Illinois, 74% are in Chicago or the surrounding areas (243 deaths). Chicago, incidentally, has the toughest laws in the country outside of Connecticut and DC.

And in Ohio, 38% are in three cities: Cinci, Cleveland and Columbus.

I wonder what all these metro areas have in common? I wonder if the guns used in the majority of these shootings are legally obtained? I'm betting they aren't, but sadly, this information isn't tracked. I'd make suggestions, but then I'd probably be labeled rayciss.

I can send the data to anyone if they want to PM me an email address and you can parse it yourself or check mine for errors (there aren't any) or to confirm my accurate reporting.

Essentially, "more guns = more deaths/violence", is horseshit.

Additional source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States_by_state
 
Ricter said:
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I've already addressed the flaws in using these charts at length in this post and this post. It would be helpful to the discussion if you did not post commentary that was already shown to be flawed. Or, if you believe the posted issues with these charts to be flawed, perhaps you could start the conversation there.
 
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"1. Where there are more guns there is more homicide (literature review).

Our review of the academic literature found that a broad array of evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for homicide, both in the United States and across high-income countries. Case-control studies, ecological time-series and cross-sectional studies indicate that in homes, cities, states and regions in the US, where there are more guns, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide.

Hepburn, Lisa; Hemenway, David. Firearm availability and homicide: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal. 2004; 9:417-40."

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(Note, on the sidebar, suicide is treated separately.)
 
Ricter said:
"1. Where there are more guns there is more homicide (literature review).

Our review of the academic literature found that a broad array of evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for homicide, both in the United States and across high-income countries. Case-control studies, ecological time-series and cross-sectional studies indicate that in homes, cities, states and regions in the US, where there are more guns, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide.

Hepburn, Lisa; Hemenway, David. Firearm availability and homicide: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal. 2004; 9:417-40."

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(Note, on the sidebar, suicide is treated separately.)
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I just showed you the raw data. Your response is to give me four authors who wrote on the subject, but not give me any of the data behind any of what they wrote. Frequently, your article has phrases like "We found that states with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm homicide and overall homicide." But that data is at odds with the FBI's data and the Census data posted above. So unless you can show me a particular study where we can sift through the data, assertions that aren't backed with the study don't mean a whole lot.

Additionally, these sources look at periods 1997 and earlier, or 2001-2003. The data posted above is within the last five years.
 
Ricter said:
The United States Has Had More Mass Shootings Than Any Other Country

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It's convenient to group the US as a whole and not look at state level data. State level data clearly shows that # of guns has nothing to do with gun homicide. But that doesn't advance the narrative, does it.

That the US has more mass shootings that other countries is not in debate. That it is because of the number of guns, and not some other demographic issue (racial, etc), is.
 
Ricter said:
We have uncontrolled internal borders.

"Don't bring a knife to a gunfight!"
(Why not?!)

Inequality and Violent Crime
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So you're saying people in high gun ownership areas but low gun homicide rates like Alaska and Wyoming or Idaha, etc. decide to do their violence in Chicago?

Or do the folks in Chicago go across the border to Wisconsin to buy firearms, and then come back to Chicago to do their killing?
 
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