I have gone back and taken a look at my "market-neutral" trades (short straddles, iron butterflies, IC's). I looked at the greeks (delta, gamma, volatility, and theta). All of them show negative volatility and positive theta. Interestingly, deltas and gamma are negative (if the underlying moves up, the value of the portfolio moves down). This surprised me. I thought it would be the opposite. In other words, these market neutral strategies have the same characteristics as naked short calls or bear call spreads. There is an inflection point where delta is zero, but it is much closer to the short put than the short call. Therefore, I concluded that to use these market-neutral strategies, one must subscribe to reversion theory. If the market does shoot straight up or down, you get killed.
Another point: I took a look at the last crash 2000-2002. The current chart looks a lot like the bottom from October and November from that time period. If history repeats itself, there will be one more leg down over the next four months-possibly to the 700 level before a bull market begins. Well, it will be interesting to see how all option strategies work in this situation. Also, the rate of descent this time was much faster and steeper. The recoveries tend to reflect the falls. Times have changed.
Another point: I took a look at the last crash 2000-2002. The current chart looks a lot like the bottom from October and November from that time period. If history repeats itself, there will be one more leg down over the next four months-possibly to the 700 level before a bull market begins. Well, it will be interesting to see how all option strategies work in this situation. Also, the rate of descent this time was much faster and steeper. The recoveries tend to reflect the falls. Times have changed.