montey hall problem

J

jasonc

Not sure if this is the correct forum for this but whatever. In the Montey Hall problem it is always best to switch briefcases from the one you have and the probability of success goes to 66.6% from 33.3%. I was wondering if this same principle would apply to a show like deal or no deal and if by switching at the end when they are offered the probability of success rises dramatically. Any math people out there who know?
 
I'm not sure this will answer your question, but the Monty Hall problem works because the game show host knows what is behind the doors even before you select them. If the game show host is in the same boat as you, then the normal probability of 1/3 would apply. I'm assuming that the Deal or No Deal host does not know what is in the suitcases, so there is no inherent advantage to switching.
 
Just found the answer and you are correct I believe. Since there is no new information revealed in deal or no deal there is no difference wheter you switch or not.
 
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