Monte Carlo Trading Simulator Strategy

[never2old]

with monte carlo, it assumes your probabilty percentage is random but the market is NOT random but manipulated it doesn't apply to trading it applies to gambling in the casino which this simulator or formula was based on it has to be random and you still make money only if you are right 55% of the time after 500 trades.

You are still profitable even if you are only 55% probability of being right which is almost the same as flipping a coin on each trade and minimum trades is 100 trades preferable 500 trades

in practice, most traders cannot make 100 trades with small accounts. before being wiped out. you have to do like 100 trades min. for backtesting this monte carlo system.

with a better than 50% win rate (thinking Jim simons 50.75%) each placed bet/trade must be the same amount or on the wins the bet was higher on the losing trade/bets the wager was a less a amount.

traders like casino bet's do not place the same wager each & every bet/trade & therefore likely lose.

doesn't matter if its 500, 1000, 10,000 if the outcome is better than 50% with each trade/wager/bet exactly the same amount .... then monte carlo or whatever predictor system out there might work.

on the coin flip, someone on another thread mentioned the heads side of the coin is heavier, so, bet tails up.

yet to see a system that can predict better than 55% win rate on a trade of 1000 trades placed before the win... easy saying 'see I told you so after the fact - the system/charts were right.

market trades are bets

quote the zuckerman book on simons: “We’re right 50.75 percent of the time… but we’re 100 percent right 50.75 percent of the time. You can make billions that way” (pg 272)

 

[high-performance]

The work is finding those 100 -500 trades to trade for your particular account size and strategy. which is the difficult part of any trading system. You would have to trade lots of products to find the 100 or 500 trades.