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Monster Reversal Coming?
- Thread starter empee
- Start date
I have turned very bearish on the market too. If not for the upcoming elections, I would be pounding the table short.
On tuesday night I bought BEARX (Prudent Bear fund) in my swing trading account, and RYURX (Rydex inverse S&P 500) in my retirement account.
We'll see how it plays out.
On tuesday night I bought BEARX (Prudent Bear fund) in my swing trading account, and RYURX (Rydex inverse S&P 500) in my retirement account.
We'll see how it plays out.
Longhorns, you are absolutely correct in my opinion. The election does have an impact, as the Whitehouse will naturally pull out all stops to keep the market on a somewhat even keel until after the election. The economic forces at play, however, are all to the down side.
On balance then, perhaps we should not expect a huge down movement between now and election day, but neither can we expect much up from here. It will be down to november in my opinion by 2 to 5 %. (It could be much worse, were it not for the election.)
It is perhaps interesting to note that what the financial establishment wants is not always good for them in the long run. Witness the rather better performance of the economy under democratic control in recent years than under republican. I am reminded of Truman Capote's last novel: "Answered Prayers" in which those who find their prayers answered are not always happy with the results.
On balance then, perhaps we should not expect a huge down movement between now and election day, but neither can we expect much up from here. It will be down to november in my opinion by 2 to 5 %. (It could be much worse, were it not for the election.)
It is perhaps interesting to note that what the financial establishment wants is not always good for them in the long run. Witness the rather better performance of the economy under democratic control in recent years than under republican. I am reminded of Truman Capote's last novel: "Answered Prayers" in which those who find their prayers answered are not always happy with the results.
i agree, i beleivet this market will sell hard. i do not see any reason for this market to be at its current level. what other funds are there to capitalize on this play? any other inverse funds out there?
I was talking to a guy the other day who mentioned the cyclical sell off until the elections in early November...being from the other side of the pond I didn't follow it too well.
Any chance some one could enlighten me!! I know you have mid term elections 2nd tuesday after first monday (or something like that) in Nov! & after that the market is supposed to rally, or so he was explaining
Any chance some one could enlighten me!! I know you have mid term elections 2nd tuesday after first monday (or something like that) in Nov! & after that the market is supposed to rally, or so he was explaining
The vertical nature of all of these illiquid program driven moves never ceases to amaze me. In the course of one day and about 7-10 ES points, the entire sentiment of the market can go from projections of SP 1400 back to projections of SP 1200. It's pretty clear that the quicker and more vertical the price action, the more it polarizes the bull and bear camp and creates this endless series of short term bull and bear traps.
Quote from vulture:
The vertical nature of all of these illiquid program driven moves never ceases to amaze me. In the course of one day and about 7-10 ES points, the entire sentiment of the market can go from projections of SP 1400 back to projections of SP 1200. It's pretty clear that the quicker and more vertical the price action, the more it polarizes the bull and bear camp and creates this endless series of short term bull and bear traps.
'endless series of short term bull and bear traps. '
thats EXACTLY what this market is about, watching reactions for failures has never been more important