I think a better example of a H&S forming is in the SPY. Shoulders are much more defined. I agree I am wary of the pattern and seldom trade off of it, but the chart does look a little disturbing. At the very least it displays some solid resistance.
Monster in the making?
- Thread starter Rickshaw Man
- Start date
Quote from SethArb:
all I see if cubes in trading range for 1-2 yrs
Yes and this range hurts my models....
Evern my newest baby model that Ive fallen in love with...I dont care if its up or down as long as we move out of this range...
EDIT...Oh and as far as H&S and all other patterns...there is nothing to suggest that they work more then 1/2 the time...so keep you losers smaller then your winners
Nick
8 %....?.People do you own tests and you will see...sometimes they work and sometimes they fail and sometimes they work... fake you out and fail ....
Remember that you must define the pattern before you test it since people like to see what they want.
Then if you test it you have test H&S tops, bottoms these are all against the trend....but don't forget Smaller H&S tops in a declining trend that suggest a continuation of trend and REV H&S bottoms in an uptrend that suggest continuation of the up move if broken...
IMO all these patterns do is give you a place to enter a 50/50 trade where a specific move against you will prove the trade wrong and allow you to exit without second guessing yourself. They enable you to cut your losses and let your winners run.
If you trade this way ...positions size is the key ... and you must apply your definition and ruls in a consistent manor...
Good luck...
Nick
Thank you for telling me what it is as I still can't make it out...When I click on it ..for a split second it seems large and readable to me if it would stay that way but then it just opens like smaller and unreadable...(all in a matter of a second it seems)....And I try to click on it once to zoom it as you say and I can't click on it....nothing happens...
Maybe a display problem I have wrong or something? I am running XP with a 17" Hitachi LCD and in displays it says 1280x720 if that helps?
Thanks again
I'm grateful...
Thank you!
no more political pundits...
no more Crudlow's on CNBC to spin doctor the horrible results of this failed administration and their ignoring policies designed to employ and enliven the citizens of the US....
no more fanciful and creative Elaine Chow's trying to say, yeah, jobs, they're on the way....
(remember that and the threads that expressed complete contempt for that weird one)...
the results of all the contempt for the American populace show up in those chart patterns that portend some really deep knees and toes to the head and shoulders pattern...., just like you mentioned...
simply put, this is where the TA (Tech Analysis) overlaps with the Basic Economics lesson...
this too is where the Basic Economics lesson overlaps with the Reality lesson...
this too is where the Reality lesson overlaps with the recent socioeconomic News and direction from this Administration (read: policies or politics)...
Hey, didn't the other guys warn everybody that these things weren't adding up?
------Disclaimer. Comments mentioned here are without regard for any affiliation or persuasion...
More and more, the need for:
1) national jobs programs or massive public works projects designed to put people back to work and rebuild the infrastructure are growing to epic proportions...
2) something to re-employ hundreds of thousands before the real estate actually does burst in this artificial, low interest rate bubble
3) hold more companies liable for the tax benefits already paid to them in exchange for employing US residents residing within US territories and not overseas residents or any origin
4) realistic tax burden sharing based on wealth. those fortunate to have benefited (where these opportunities don't really present themselves in other countries) have an outsized obligation and not an implicit right to breaks but responsibility to the health of the system both for themselves to continue to remain wealthy and those not able to achieve such wealth. Seems like taxes were good and tax breaks for the wealthy were really bad for the majority.
It's one of the least reliable because of where most Shorts enter the trade (at/near the neckline)...
Which is an area that's very susceptible to counter-thrusts, stop runners and anything else that produces a poor risk:reward ratio.
Do a search online (google) and you'll see countless examples of the pattern and it's entry location.
I can easily see how that particular entry area gets deep seated in those that trades this pattern.
I've seen many tests or in-depth discussions by others on this pattern and that's usually where they test or discussus their entry (at/near the neckline)...
Therefore, you are correct...it is one of the least reliable patterns because the trade management by most isn't very good.
However, as swoop[TR] suggested...it can be a very reliable pattern.
Most likely than not...such is due to the trade management which is often different than what most see online.
Thanks TL Trader for the link...its always interesting to see what Bulkowski sees and test eventhough his timeframe (trading style) is different from my own.
I use to have his Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns but a close trading pal I loaned it to...
Somehow manage to lose it while traveling.
NihabaAshi
Where have you guys been ?
I posted about this a while back
volente_00
Registered: Nov 2002
Posts: 335
06-16-05 12:35 AM
"Great plan, go for it! short the index futures right here, now is your chance don't wait do it now Mr contrarian."
I am still bearish at this current level and think we are forming a head at 10570-10600.
Regardless of what happens you have to love the trading opportunities that this volatility gives intraday.
volente_00
Registered: Nov 2002
Posts: 335
06-09-05 12:47 AM
Dow forming the head at the 10560 area. You heard it here first.
I posted about this a while back
volente_00
Registered: Nov 2002
Posts: 335
06-16-05 12:35 AM
"Great plan, go for it! short the index futures right here, now is your chance don't wait do it now Mr contrarian."
I am still bearish at this current level and think we are forming a head at 10570-10600.
Regardless of what happens you have to love the trading opportunities that this volatility gives intraday.
volente_00
Registered: Nov 2002
Posts: 335
06-09-05 12:47 AM
Dow forming the head at the 10560 area. You heard it here first.