Per the fund manager comment... I prospect CTA's for a fund and you can not even imagine some of the stuff that I see.
Monkeys
- Thread starter SilverBullet
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Per the fund manager comment... I prospect CTA's for a fund and you can not even imagine some of the stuff that I see.
"Could a monkey play bass for The Humane League"?...from the geek in the Fedex commercial
Hey compisnada,
CTAs for a hedge fund? That would be a little different than what I meant...I was referreing to a more traditional equity only fund. But thats really interesting you brought that up, because some people think that TA is Bullshit, some dont. If a CTA is trading that way and taking heavy losses consistently, you would think a monkey could in fact do better. Of course these traders done stick around for too long, da well.
So what are some of the thiings you see CTAs doing that is comparable to a monkey.
CTAs for a hedge fund? That would be a little different than what I meant...I was referreing to a more traditional equity only fund. But thats really interesting you brought that up, because some people think that TA is Bullshit, some dont. If a CTA is trading that way and taking heavy losses consistently, you would think a monkey could in fact do better. Of course these traders done stick around for too long, da well.
So what are some of the thiings you see CTAs doing that is comparable to a monkey.
Well, CTAs may or may not comparable to monkey's throwing at darts. But I wouldn't single out CTAs.
I would venture to say that prop traders on this board, daytraders across the country, retail investors, institutional fund managers, Wall St proprietary desk traders,etc. probably as an AGGREGRATE group probably do no better than monkey throwing at darts.
That's why academics think the market on average is efficient. Of course, there a periods of nonrandomness like during a big up trend in a bull market and almost everyone with skill or no skill made "easy" money. And during a bear market, those who shorted correctly made money. But on average, most people lose - CTAs or retail or other professionals. It has to be. Otherwise, the game would be too easy.
But even those with "skills" will run the risk of ruin or lackluster performance one day. Look at some of the Market Wizards who subsequently didn't do too well. Richard Dennis had to close his fund after a 50% drawdown. That's the way the market works. Majority loses. The minority wins. And even then the minority doesn't win for too long.
So, dont' be quick to judge any particular group of market
participants because you'll never know you'll be next...
It's 2nd law of thermodynamics at work. Everything will just be reduced to white noise eventually. Deal with it. Just hope you make a fortune before you or your strategy stops working. lol
good luck!
trader99
Quote from jhburton:
hehe, I guess none of you are connoisseurs of the "Planet of the Apes" saga
I like those movies very much, but I disagree with a lot of the underlying philosophy.
Of course. there is always the new movie which eliminates the need for thinking and conditions viewers according to the current political system's needs: "War is good. Think is no."