Monday?

Quote from toc:

currently debt service payments are roughly 1.5% of the GDP. in the past they have been upto 3%.

however, default has already occurred long time ago when the US government started printing more dollars to pay bills.

what matters is the how much 'growth punch' is in the economy to keep debt ceiling in a proportionate levels vis-a-vis inflation. if economy grows by 3% then raising debt ceiling by 3% should do not harm. but raising it by 6% is going further into the hole.


so at $14T, and economic growth at 1.6% the maximum debt ceiling can/should be raised is $224B annually. That would barely see them through till the end of September. In August with current ceiling US government will be short by $140B.

Hence the correct comment above: that spending cuts are not in line with the increase in ceiling.

Obama is afraid that too much spending cuts will slow the economy and with higher unemployment rate he will be out of the WH in 2012. This is selfish approach and front line Democrats should confront him on this.

Both Democrats and RATS are not taking the hard pill and are still guarding their self interest over a national economy and future going to tough times for long.
:D :cool: :p
problem might be that the hardpill won't matter,it's throwing in the towel,no one wants to admit that they still haven't come up with a solution.let em play chicken for awhile longer til it' s so big that all the soverigns have to agree to forgive a large part of the international market debt
 
i would also like to comment that both Bill Clinton and George Bush II threw this country into a wet sand and this sand is now getting wetter.


Bill Clinton by maintaining his foreign policy on Iraq and resulting sanctions that cause 2 Million Iraqi deaths and this gave rise to Al Queda and Islamic fanaticism.

Then Billy 'the Slick' Clinton caved into the 'mega welfare' scheme of sub prime mortgages. It looked good for a while when economy was growing and real estate prices going higher but when the slowdown occured, the housing markets started to crash and rest is for the notes.

George Bush should have never gone into Iraqi War of 2003. Cost tax payers $1T and took the focus away from the real war on terror in Afghanistan.

To the above add higher oil prices and commodity cycle on the upswing, and no US counter move to compete with China on prices of goods, the US treasury and Fed should have thrown in the towel long time ago.

Raise the ceiling or not, tough times are in and they seem to stay for a while this time around. Middle class will become poor and poor will go back to farming and tent living. Sad and pathetic!

:mad:
 
Quote from logic_man:

I got a buy signal at EOD on Friday, so I am currently long. Interestingly, I got a similar buy signal on the prior Friday.

Since my strategy is to enter only when the market has moved sufficiently, i.e. I try to follow, not anticipate, the smart money, my guess is that they would like to see the market rally on a deal, which is why they let it drop when they perceive a decreased likelihood of a deal. Of course, they will then be offloading those shares at higher prices to dumb money.

Just for context, my long signals are profitable about 63% of the time, so the odds are in my favor, but that doesn't mean anything for any given trade, really.

SP500 chart is doomed (15 year view)... We'll repeat late 2008 soon enough. What we're waiting on is gold to peak, then gold crash and synch with market crash.
 
Quote from toc:

...

George Bush should have never gone into Iraqi War of 2003. Cost tax payers $1T and took the focus away from the real war on terror in Afghanistan.

To the above add higher oil prices and commodity cycle on the upswing, and no US counter move to compete with China on prices of goods, the US treasury and Fed should have thrown in the towel long time ago.
...

everybody in US expected to at least get cheap oil out of that war.


except maybe Bush who mainly expected to get his oil buddies rich.
"Mission accomplished!" :(
 
Quote from pattern39:

SP500 chart is doomed (15 year view)... We'll repeat late 2008 soon enough. What we're waiting on is gold to peak, then gold crash and synch with market crash.

I shy away from "big calls". I take care of the short term and let the long term take care of itself.
 
Quote from shortie:
everybody in US expected to at least get cheap oil out of that war.
When Bush left office, oil looked cheap to me. Instead of taking steps to keep oil cheap, Obama did everything to inflate it.
9.gif
 
Quote from bond_trad3r:

Should be one of the most interesting tradings days in world history. How do you play it?

It's simple...wait and then react.

Mark
 
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