I just wanted to post my thoughts for Monday and get some input as to what others are thinking. I hope we can keep this thread civil.
I definitely think the safe play in the morning is shorting the ES (if it doesn't gap down prior to the open). If it doesn't gap, I think getting short at the open is the play, with the opportunity to hold the short down to 1520.00. If the move down is fast enough, I think we will see a v bottom.
By no means am I stating that this is guaranteed, so I hope I don't have to get a bunch of responses trying to bash me for speculating what will happen.
For those that are wondering why I get this feeling, I will explain what I am looking at. The longer term charts still have bullish momentum with regards to the oscillator and the stochastics. The daily 14,3,3 is pulling back to the zero line with a positive oscillator which is where we usually see a turn around. The 60 minute is bearish, which indicates the early down move, but I think we will see the 5,10 start to round up and the 14,3,3 cross back to the bullish side of the zero line as the day goes on which will indicate the v bottom. I know a lot of people are expecting a bigger pullback, but I don't see it. There is also a small trendline that comes in from the two previous lows that comes in around 1520 which lends some support as well. If it weren't for this, I would be looking at 1510 as the support.
I definitely think the safe play in the morning is shorting the ES (if it doesn't gap down prior to the open). If it doesn't gap, I think getting short at the open is the play, with the opportunity to hold the short down to 1520.00. If the move down is fast enough, I think we will see a v bottom.
By no means am I stating that this is guaranteed, so I hope I don't have to get a bunch of responses trying to bash me for speculating what will happen.
For those that are wondering why I get this feeling, I will explain what I am looking at. The longer term charts still have bullish momentum with regards to the oscillator and the stochastics. The daily 14,3,3 is pulling back to the zero line with a positive oscillator which is where we usually see a turn around. The 60 minute is bearish, which indicates the early down move, but I think we will see the 5,10 start to round up and the 14,3,3 cross back to the bullish side of the zero line as the day goes on which will indicate the v bottom. I know a lot of people are expecting a bigger pullback, but I don't see it. There is also a small trendline that comes in from the two previous lows that comes in around 1520 which lends some support as well. If it weren't for this, I would be looking at 1510 as the support.
