Momentum Strategy

[DTB2]

Since momentum has been well documented to add alpha, does this have any merit?

https://engineeredportfolio.com/2018/05/02/accelerating-dual-momentum-investing/

 

[Saltynuts]

Seems like it could be legit. Saw some other momentum ETF study recently where big gains were supposedly made (backtesting).

 

[DTB2]

Seems like it could be legit. Saw some other momentum ETF study recently where big gains were supposedly made (backtesting).

Do you have a link?

 

[Saltynuts]

Do not DTB2, I will try and keep a look out for it and post it here if I see the thread again.

 

[dozu888]

this is garbage... we are trending now so the trend follow guys come out...

the market is not technical... it's logical! figure out what is actually HAPPENING

 

[traider]

some would argue trending is technical signal

 

[tzachi]

Price/market moves ONLY cause there are more buyers/sellers than the other one.
Technical tools are used to identify this unbalanced buy Vs. sell orders. This is what actually HAPPENING. All the rest is pure speculation/crystal ball/coin flip methods with no connection to what happening now.

 

[Maverick2608]

The momentum anomaly has been credited Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993.

However, can anyone point to momentum ETFs or momentum funds with real outperformance (not backtested) over 10 years?

 

[DTB2]

The momentum anomaly has been credited Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993.

However, can anyone point to momentum ETFs or momentum funds with real outperformance (not backtested) over 10 years?

MTUM has done well but has not been around for the full 10 years you mentioned.

 

[Maverick2608]

MTUM has done well but has not been around for the full 10 years you mentioned.

Morningstar uses the Russell 1000 Growth Index TR as benchmark. The longest track record is 5 years. The performance is -0.44%.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/bats/mtum/performance

My impression is that the academic papers on the momentum anomaly were interesting when they came out in the early 90s like they were for the value anomaly a decade earlier (decades earlier when you count the work of Benjamin Graham). But like the value anomaly, on average real outperformance did not materialize when a host of funds tried to harvest the return premium.

Cliff Asness (AQR) became a billionaire selling momentum funds to pension fund managers with CFA degrees that thought academic papers would provide them real alpha. But in reality across AQRs momentum funds, did they get what they paid for? Cliff became a billionaire, but on average has he delivered?