modeling the vol surface when missing (quite a bit of) data

[Baozi]

ITS A-LIVE!!

A big thanks to @jamesbp, @newwurldmn and @Matt_ORATS for their input.

Now however comes the hardest part. How do I use it in a meaningful/productive way?

So far that's what I'm doing:
1-I created a parallel table where I keep the trailing averages of the vols for the past N-days
2-In a third table I visualize the daily divergence from the average, to spot significant trends/changes.

I am now in the process of retrieving data for specific market situations to see how the thing was shifting in that particular case.

I don't know if I am going in the right direction or if it's just a pointless accumulation of data. I feel like having been given the keys of a forklift: got a general idea of how it should work, never actually operated one.

 

[Overnight]

...

I don't know if I am going in the right direction or if it's just a pointless accumulation of data. I feel like having been given the keys of a forklift: got a general idea of how it should work, never actually operated one.

Be very careful with your direction, and data. Learn how to drive before driving.

 

[Baozi]

Be very careful with your direction, and data. Learn how to drive before driving.

After watching those videos I became really afraid of the IV surface.

 

[tommcginnis]

ITS A-LIVE!!

A big thanks to @jamesbp, @newwurldmn and @Matt_ORATS for their input.

View attachment 203400

Now however comes the hardest part. How do I use it in a meaningful/productive way?

So far that's what I'm doing:
1-I created a parallel table where I keep the trailing averages of the vols for the past N-days
2-In a third table I visualize the daily divergence from the average, to spot significant trends/changes.

I am now in the process of retrieving data for specific market situations to see how the thing was shifting in that particular case.

I don't know if I am going in the right direction or if it's just a pointless accumulation of data. I feel like having been given the keys of a forklift: got a general idea of how it should work, never actually operated one.

Two quick thoughts:
• I have done what you did, but kept it at 6 colors. What you have done -- WOW.
People should realize that that is not a *graphic* per se, but a *spreadsheet.*

• Your work on differences may produce (heh heh!) certain "islands" of discontinuous sloping with regard to volatility (over time, OR over distance [delta]). It is full of profitable, tradable insight.

 

[jamesbp]

ITS A-LIVE!!

A big thanks to @jamesbp, @newwurldmn and @Matt_ORATS for their input.

View attachment 203400
Now however comes the hardest part. How do I use it in a meaningful/productive way?

I have done a fair bit of modelling using the Corradu-Su model ( corrected for an error in the original specification ) and have a reasonable understanding of where it is useful and limitations are.

If you want to share your spreadsheet, I am happy to see if there is anything I can add ... particularily in respect of the skew/kurtosis parameters you are using

Cheers
James

 

[Baozi]

@tommcginnis ahaha.. actually the color was the easiest part.. there is an automatic feature in excel to do the blend effect. I just set blue-20 vol green-30 vol and red 40 vol and voila'.. are you by any chance still using excel 2003?

@jamesbp sure.. pm me your mail address, but first promise not to laugh at my crude VBA coding..

 

[tommcginnis]

@tommcginnis ahaha.. actually the color was the easiest part.. there is an automatic feature in excel to do the blend effect. I just set blue-20 vol green-30 vol and red 40 vol and voila'.. are you by any chance still using excel 2003?

Close: I was using OpenOffice. I didn't know!!
I have been encouraged to change over to LibreOffice, and am in the process of doing so -- but some *deep* operations have been screwed, and the only way to get these subtleties to work again is to essentially re-invent them -- a process I do not relish.

Nonetheless! Look what I just discovered -- over there on the right-hand side -- see that nice spectrum? I didn't make it: LibreOffice did. This is a screen capture of my "developments" spreadsheet, where I put all the templates and work-arounds that I've come up with, all in one spot. So across the top, you see a massive IF statement, to get more than three conditional formats into a spreadsheet that *thinks* it can only do three. HA!
But now, with LibreOffice, .... I'll have neato kewl shading that didn't take me WEEKS to pattern correctly.... Phooey!

Ah, well! On we march...!!

 

[Baozi]

Close: I was using OpenOffice. I didn't know!!
I have been encouraged to change over to LibreOffice, and am in the process of doing so -- but some *deep* operations have been screwed, and the only way to get these subtleties to work again is to essentially re-invent them -- a process I do not relish.
View attachment 204056

Now the source of the problem is clear..
to be honest, in the past I have been a big proponent of openoffice, but when you want to do more advanced stuff excel is sooo convenient. I'm not sure about the latest open office distros, however the one I used in the past for sure did not have any of the advanced math functions that I need when playing with my friend the IV surface...