mnuchin warns of 20% unemployment! I think that's a good scare tactic

[hhiusa]

So on April 3, 2020 at 8:30 AM, we should be in for a surprise. Restaurants will lay off workers who likely don't have savings to make it a month much less the two weeks from now in which county-wide shutdowns of restaurants are taking place. What's the statistics: 90% of Americans don't have $1,000 in savings. 60% don't have a savings account. Only 25% start saving for retirement 10 years before retirement. That being said, I'm sure some nutter will make straw man arguments against this to fallaciously discredit a bear market because they went long like the heavy volume I saw at each dead cat bounce.

Then the hotel chains, like Marriott who won't pay their employees. Lululemon, Apple, etc. If not April 3, then the April jobs report will likely illustrate some hike in claims by 1 million+.

Some cities are doing de facto lock downs. The supply chains supposedly are fine, and still the grocery stores are empty. I implore any person with internet disinhibition effect to rudely state in a pedantic manner how it isn't about supply chains and some such nonsense. Go on take a picture of your grocery store. Every grocery store in my populous county is at quarter capacity. I love to see the denial here, the depths of which seem to know no bounds. I'll change my tune when there are any signs of improvement in the

3,643,000 employees based upon the infographic.
US.

 

[gaussian]

Some cities are doing de facto lock downs. The supply chains supposedly are fine, and still the grocery stores are empty. I implore any person with internet disinhibition effect to rudely state in a pedantic manner how it isn't about supply chains and some such nonsense. Go on take a picture of your grocery store. Every grocery store in my populous county is at quarter capacity. I love to see the denial here, the depths of which seem to know no bounds.

Moreover many places are instating "senior only hours" at grocery stores in order to enable the elderly to shop. No rest for the infirm, but the old folks are getting special treatment. Surely this will only make things worse.

From the frontlines of my grocery store meat has been out of stock for weeks. Apparently people are showing up in caravans and loading trucks full of it to drive off. There's no rationing, but there's also no panic. People in the grocery stores were in good spirits despite everyone looking at the shelves with growling stomachs realizing its probably going to be cream of mushroom and some rice for dinner. People still appear to be somewhat price sensitive. The bean-meat substitutes that go for $15/pound are not being sold and neither are many of their prepared foods.

It will likely be months before the grocery store supply chain is solved. Many states are shutting down all non-essential businesses which will increase pressure on grocers because people don't have their normal places of comfort (bars, restaurants, etc). Not much to do for the unemployed except wait in line for the store to open. I watched a video of people ripping apart a pallet of toilet paper like savages.

A rationing system would be wise. I am unsure why grocers are not limiting supplies of critical items (meats, toilet paper, cleaning supplies, etc) to 1 per person per day. I arrived at the grocery store at 9am, an hour after open, and the shelves were empty. Picked over by the literal horde of people camping in the parking lot. You can see the stress on the faces of the employees.

I'd say April 1st is when things get interesting. Food stamps people will be probably be combative because they are left eating whatever is left from the horde the night before. Unemployment, paid mostly through unemployment insurance, will likely dry up quickly as well. I am imagining people stealing things from each other's carts and having to bring friends to shop to prevent that.

 

[tsfx]

People are getting laid off as we speak, actually. SAS, for example, laid off 90% of their workforce.

I would think of it as a temporary no pay vacation.

 

[S2007S]

You don't think it's possible for us to have a 20% unemployment on the back of this?

I'm going to say no. According to how the virus is leveling off in China (according to the news) I dont see 20%...

 

[MrMuppet]

I'm going to say no. According to how the virus is leveling off in China (according to the news) I dont see 20%...

Yeah, but China actually did something. The US is still in "hold my beer, I got this" mode. Wait two weeks. As soon as first reports of people suffocating to death because they could not afford to be treated in an ICU, the panic will set in.

There is a chance that this will become a 2nd 1929 recession. Everyone is scared, everyone is hoarding, nobody is spending.
And when nobody is spending, who is buying all the goods and services the workforce is producing right now?

 

[S2007S]

Yeah, but China actually did something. The US is still in "hold my beer, I got this" mode. Wait two weeks. As soon as first reports of people suffocating to death because they could not afford to be treated in an ICU, the panic will set in.

There is a chance that this will become a 2nd 1929 recession. Everyone is scared, everyone is hoarding, nobody is spending.
And when nobody is spending, who is buying all the goods and services the workforce is producing right now?

I agree that consumer spending has grinding to an absolute halt. People out of work without pay and no one knows when anything will be back to normal. I think the government is going to hand out over $5 and maybe $10 trillion to get this entire situation out of control

 

[vanzandt]

honestly, fuck that turkey neck SOB and his old but still bangable wife.

I'll say.

my gawd you are a loser focusing on winners, you even know his wife's bangability.

Well, you can color me guilty on that one too. The cat landed himself a trophy. Probably why Trump hired him in the first place; not like she doesn't fit his mold.

From the frontlines of my grocery store meat has been out of stock for weeks. .

Sunbeam used to have a crock-pot recipe for feral cats on their website. I think they took it down though.
Pretty easy as I recall.... just add onions and tenderizer and set it for 8 hours.

 

[MrMuppet]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/business/economy/coronavirus-layoffs.html

here we go

 

[Cuddles]

here we go

 

[Nighthawk]

I guess you used the Gaussian formula for your assumptions?