Apparently, there's a simple numerical explanation for jem's incomprehension:Quote from Ricter:
You have to use models to analyze for causality, for mechanism. Even the two variable one relationship expression, "tax cuts raise revenues" is a model. But of course many other relevant variables exist, and if they're not properly taken into account somehow... well, in that example, post hoc ergo propter hoc.
Quote from jem:
...You have to have an IQ high enough to think in systems... ( I am told that occurs about 120 and above.)
Quote from Ricter:
You have to use models to analyze for causality, for mechanism. Even the two variable one relationship expression, "tax cuts raise revenues" is a model. But of course many other relevant variables exist, and if they're not properly taken into account somehow... well, in that example, post hoc ergo propter hoc.
That's actually two facts. The implication that the first caused the second is the model.Quote from jem:
I did not rely on models.
I said after tax cuts - revenues went up. That is a fact ...
Quote from Ricter:
That's actually two facts. The implication that the first caused the second is the model.
But I could add a third fact, that taxes went up five years previously. Maybe I'll try to emphasize the (new) implied conclusion by saying they went up more than the total of the cuts that followed. Don't laugh, this kind of reasoning is common here, it happens to be a favorite of, for example, Petsamo's.