Mistake to short Friday's "Rally"?

J

jason586

I had funds in China, Brazil, and Emerging Markets that I got out of last week, so I missed some of the continued downturn. Now it looks as though they are on the move again.
I shorted the market Friday at about 13,100 in some ultra short ETFs (DXD, SMN, SRS and SKF) expecting a downturn for another week or possibly two.

Bad move?

Nikkei is strong up again as I type.
 
even if we go sideways up for couple of days this just opportunity for me to short this thing .we will retest thursdays low.unless those morons will cut the rate before september 18
 
Anyone else think/confident we will retest Thurdays lows?

Who thinks the lows will fail?

I'm planning on selling half as we approach 12,600; good idea?
 
Quote from Toro KMA:

I wouldn't short this market if you have a near-term horizon.

Longer-term might be different though.
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I'm probably like every other novice that thinks the market will eventually head back down - then at some point late Fall regain its strength going into 2008. I'm just too jumpy as I'm not used to losing money as I'm in real estate and have never lost money as I buy extreme value/fixer-uppers.
 
Quote from jason586:

I'm probably like every other novice that thinks the market will eventually head back down - then at some point late Fall regain its strength going into 2008. I'm just too jumpy as I'm not used to losing money as I'm in real estate and have never lost money as I buy extreme value/fixer-uppers.
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if you have no clue where it is heading (I don't) then the next best move is to liquidate them all then try to figure out how to know what you want to know.
 
The market tends to punish the majority. According to my retail sources on the front lines, the shills aren't selling but calling to ask if this is a good time to put more in. When names like BSC and GS are blowing up the sky really isn't blue.

:D

The yahoo finance indicator - can't direct link to it, numbers are:

Buy: 33%
Stay the course: 55%
Sell: 13% (obviously rounding the three numbers)

Sample size: 443,582

Quote from jason586:

I'm probably like every other novice that thinks the market will eventually head back down - then at some point late Fall regain its strength going into 2008. I'm just too jumpy as I'm not used to losing money as I'm in real estate and have never lost money as I buy extreme value/fixer-uppers.
More...
 
If you're short with a tight stop (tight on your on paramters) then you may have something here. (i mean good risk/reward ratio).

I don't like to short that big hammer on weekly basis (on ES / Dow) but is totally possible for the market to vanish the friday movement when sellers get renewed confidence in a couple of days when the "huge 50 pt short squeeze" image goes out of traders mind.
In the meantime we may reach 1480,(or not) but this is markets, so who knows...
so let's trade according to what happens.






Quote from jason586:

I'm probably like every other novice that thinks the market will eventually head back down - then at some point late Fall regain its strength going into 2008. I'm just too jumpy as I'm not used to losing money as I'm in real estate and have never lost money as I buy extreme value/fixer-uppers.
More...
 
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