MissTick's ES Trading Journal

Hello Laissez Faire,

What do you mean? Just going back over charts and eyeballing them?

Could you describe the process maybe please?

I have the ability to replay data using NinjaTrader I think, should I use this?

I want to make this a success so would appreciate all of your input :)
 
Quote from MissTick:

What do you mean? Just going back over charts and eyeballing them?

Could you describe the process maybe please?
More...

You actually "trade" the historical chart and "enter" trades when you get a signal according to your method including a stop loss. Load your historical data and scroll the screen so that only the first 5-minute bar (or whatever time frame you will be using) is showing. Then scroll to the right, one bar at a time, at your own pace. Try to understand what is happening and predict the next bar.

Support and resistance levels and all that should be plotted in advance, so that you "trade" your method like you would live.

Take notes, see what works, what don`t works, compile statistics, etc.

Since you seem to have no trading experience, you may want to play around a little in the simulator first and get a feel for how it is and test some ideas in a live environment.

The obvious advantage of backtesting historical data manually is that you do it at your own pace, which is very important for the neophyte who will get hypnotized by the ticks on the fast-moving screen. It is a much better environment for learning.

Also, if you step away from simulator trading after a while and focus on this, you will find that you can backtest perhaps one complete trading week in one day instead of one day of learning in the simulator. That is why it can really accelerate your learning.

Another thing is that you learn to wait for the bars to close. Generally, you are always better off doing that. Many 5-minute bars looks extremely bullish or bearish at a point, only to reverse in the final seconds and completely negate the signal. A nice trap for impatient traders :)
 
Listen to NoDoji :)

Quote from NoDoji:

That's what I did. I chose my preferred time frame, then studied charts at length until I found patterns X that resulted in price movements Y 60% of the time or better. I memorized these patterns both visually and descriptively, meaning I wrote down in words what was happening and memorized those descriptions until I got to the point I could see the pattern and immediately describe to another person what was happening, what was more likely to happen next, and why.

Getting from recognizing patterns on a static chart at the end of the day to recognizing the pattern forming in real time is a bit trickier. What I did each day is, I took a day's chart and scrolled the time window back until it looked just the way it did when I turned on my platform in the morning and the rest of the day's price action hadn't yet occurred. (I use an 8-hour time window on the 5-min chart and when I scroll back I can see the 8 hours price action leading into the moment I turn on my platform in the morning.)

I revealed one bar at a time until one of my high probability patterns appeared to be forming (the setup). At that point I knew that if price then did X, price action Y was more likely to follow than not. Price doing X was the signal to put on a trade. I quickly calculate where the stop loss will be placed, what a likely minimum profit target will be and if the risk:reward in that case is positive. If it qualifies, the trade is on when price triggers the entry.

Learning how to properly manage the trades required that I look into the 5-min price action via a 1-min chart so I could choose survivable stop loss placement, when to move stops to break even, when to take profits early, and when to let a winner run further than target.

Once you do all this enough times, then start trusting your setups in real time so you don't hesitate and miss out, then screw up lord knows how many times mismanaging trades because it always looks different at the raggedy right edge when price is actually moving back and forth, eventually the whole process becomes more and more routine, much like driving a car:

It's a nice day out (pullback long setup forming) and you want to drive up to the nearby mountain top (price should find support on this pullback, head back up and break to a new high), so you get in the car (place a buy stop just above this pullback bar's high), start the engine (price triggers a trade entry), fasten your seat belt (place a protective stop just below the pivot low), and head on your merry way without much conscious thought about it, until you either reach the mountain top (profit target attained), or something happens that prevents you from reaching your goal - you take a wrong turn and get lost (mismanage the trade), the car breaks down (setup fails and you exit break even), you get in an accident (stop loss is hit, but the injury is minimal as a result of it).
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Quote from MissTick:

Hello Laissez Faire,

What do you mean? Just going back over charts and eyeballing them?

Could you describe the process maybe please?

I have the ability to replay data using NinjaTrader I think, should I use this?

I want to make this a success so would appreciate all of your input :)
More...

If you go through the 5 minute charts 1 bar at a time, every move to the right is 5 minutes so you can go through a day pretty fast. When analysing and figuring out strategies, I like this approach. It's methodical, gives you time to think and absorb.

The NT replay function is great and I use it for practice. You can speed up the replay so that pressures you to decide quickly, and gets you through the 'trading day' faster. With replay and real-time every day, you get 2 days experience for 1 days work. Use older replay data so that you do not have bias (because you remember what the market did yesterday).

I also use it to test ATM Strategies once I have these worked out. Set the super DOM to display selected ATM Strategies only and you can test 2 or 3 strategies at the same time by pausing the replay and entering all the orders before resuming.
 
Hi,

I am new as well. Which platform do you use that has the $TICK indicator? I'm using Interactive Brokers and it doesn't seem like they have it.

Thanks
 
Hello Laissez Faire,

Thank you for the information. I will try and do that this morning to see if I am reading price action well enough or not.

I will then invest alot of time over the coming weeks trading my system like this.

How did yesterday go for you?

It was a day of missed opportunity for me...

I will explain in the next posts...

MissTick
 
So yesterdays trading... or lack there of...

It seemed I missed every opportunity that presented itself yesterday, if I wasn't doing some research I was making a cup of tea, but one way or another I have to make sure I am looking at the charts for every second of the trading day from now else I will continue to miss opportunities.

Does anyone else ever face this... what is your remedy... is it just a question of focus?
 
Quote from MissTick:

So yesterdays trading... or lack there of...

It seemed I missed every opportunity that presented itself yesterday, if I wasn't doing some research I was making a cup of tea, but one way or another I have to make sure I am looking at the charts for every second of the trading day from now else I will continue to miss opportunities.

Does anyone else ever face this... what is your remedy... is it just a question of focus?
More...

frustration,generated by fear or gread or anxiety.It happens when you don`t know what you are doing.
 
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